Future Cars: Electric and Autonomous Vehicles

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Silophant
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Silophant » July 5th, 2017, 3:10 pm

If you're not willing to rent a car for the long trips, a Volt (or equivalents from other manufacturers, Ford makes a PHEV version of the Fusion) is your best bet, for now. That being said, a pretty quick (couple of years) rollout of high-power quick charging stations is feasible. There's not really much for technological or even grid limitations, it just needs a big player or two to bankroll the buildout.

(Should be the government, but that's a topic for another thread, I suppose.)
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby dajazz » July 5th, 2017, 9:21 pm

I'm a big fan of the Fusion hybrid, I've driven it on several occasions and was always impressed at the mileage, handling, and interior/cargo space.

I wouldn't read too much into the Volvo news, especially since some of the articles I read today were poorly written. Sure they're going to make everything at minimum a hybrid but they'll still be building millions of gas engines to pair with the electric motors. It's definitely a step in the right direction but I'm curious how they'll implement everything and what effect it'll have on pricing.

Long term I'm most intrigued about Tesla, especially as the model 3 production ramps up. As their supercharger network continues to expand it could help alleviate a lot of the range anxiety about long trips.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Silophant » July 5th, 2017, 9:48 pm

It could. Tbh, though, I'm a little frustrated by Tesla's Supercharger strategy. Given that Musk's stated aim is to bring about the EV revolution and save humanity from itself, building out a huge network of proprietary charging stations isn't a great way to do that. Yes, they've opened up their patents and GM and Ford and Honda or whoever could make their vehicles Supercharger compatible, but... it would have made more sense for Tesla to use (one of the two) industry standard charging connections.
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby David Greene » July 5th, 2017, 10:09 pm

Tesla is already behind the game. The Bolt has more range than the Model 3 and AFAIK the Supercharger isn't terribly faster than CCS, what the Bolt uses (Tesla claims 170 mile charge in 30 minutes). Since the Bolt and Model 3 both have plenty of charge for normal city driving, the only significant differentiation provided by the Model 3 is the Supercharger network. Now there are certainly a lot more of them across the country than Fast DC CCS chargers but since both take an inconvenient amount of time to charge on long trips, that seems a pretty narrow advantage.

Tesla used to be able to make sales as a premium brand. That goes away with the Model 3. And Tesla still hasn't demonstrated it can mass-produce an automobile. It's a lot of risk for a customer to take compared to a company with a very similar product which has been building cars for over a century.

So Tesla is cool and all, I'm just very doubtful they're going to outperform the competition. They may very well survive but I'm not expecting giant leaps in technology that isn't also available elsewhere.

The Volt beats all other PHEVs handily on all-electric range, which is a big consideration for us. I haven't really considered any other PHEVs for that reason, but I'd be thrilled to learn about an existing or future PHEV that will offer similar range at a similar price-point.

I'm really excited about the charging infrastructure. I think we're close to a tipping point. That I think is the significance of Volvo's announcement. Not so much the cars but that they see the demand and are responding to it. Volvo was one of the more electric-reluctant manufacturers. Their rapid pivot coupled with what Ford et. al. are doing in Europe with charging infrastructure has me pretty hopeful that we'll see a similar build-out in the U.S. within the decade.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby David Greene » July 5th, 2017, 10:23 pm

It could. Tbh, though, I'm a little frustrated by Tesla's Supercharger strategy. Given that Musk's stated aim is to bring about the EV revolution and save humanity from itself, building out a huge network of proprietary charging stations isn't a great way to do that.
The Supercharger network was (and is) Tesla's main selling point. Building to a standard would eliminate that advantage over the competition. Above I've argued that that advantage has already pretty much disappeared, though it's still there for the really die-hard all-electric people (i.e. not the general public).

This is one of the reasons the Model 3 is critical to Tesla's future. They need to sell a lot of cars at a profit. They will no longer be able to lean on the Supercharger advantage in the near future. They probably want to try to control the charging network too but I don't know how they're going to be able to do that. They tried to make money licensing patents but that is not going to fly. They could make some money by letting non-Tesla cars charge at Superchargers for a fee. It would be better for the country as other efforts could then focus on the gaps in the Supercharger network.

There's also Tesla's whole battery/non-vehicle work which could bring in significant cash. Their solar roofing tiles are interesting but I don't know much about them other than that they exist. I'm not as high on the home battery packs but maybe I'm just not visionary to understand their usefulness.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby VacantLuxuries » July 6th, 2017, 8:48 am

Honestly, I'm not banking my hopes on Tesla's Supercharger network, and instead hoping Xcel will make like Kansas City Power & Light and build out a local charging network of their own, with other utilities following suit in other cities.

I think Tesla will stick around because of brand recognition and cool factor, but if Musk ever steps out of the picture to play astronaut on Mars, Tesla will probably start following a trajectory like 90s Apple.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby David Greene » July 6th, 2017, 9:12 am

After driving a BEV for a year and a half I''m much less concerned about the urban charging network. Range is enough these days to do all the driving you need in the city and charge at home. We literally have never charged anywhere but at home. In fact we've never done anything but level 1 charging (110V). I can count on one hand the number of times I wished we could get a quick charge, usually when Julian has fallen asleep in the back seat and we need to drive around a bit.

I suppose our behavior might change if we could get an 80% charge in five minutes but I think within the city the benefits are marginal. That kind of charge station is needed for longer distance trips. We'd love to take the LEAF to Grand Marais but it's just impossible now because there is no quick charge north of Duluth along 61. The Bolt could maybe make it but I'd be nervous.

EDIT: After thinking a bit I do think faster charging could be useful for select metro-oriented trips. For example, the LEAF could probably make it to Afton state park and back but it'd be close. William O'Brien is out of the question. So we need to use the gas car for those because it's just not worth the 30 minute (1 hour total to/from) wait to charge. The Bolt would make it easily, though, so even that use case is going by the wayside.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby VacantLuxuries » July 6th, 2017, 9:22 am

I think for people who are really passionate about BEVs are going to be fine with the urban network that exists now. But there's a ton of 2012-2017 Leafs on the used car market with a range near 100 (that might be dipping down as their batteries age). I'd rather see a network here that allows people in the city (including many Millennials like myself who don't want to ever buy another ICE again) to purchase them with confidence as opposed to watching them rust on a lot as a "necessary stepping stone" to the electric cars everyone actually wants.

That, and people in the suburbs/exurbs who are used to the convenience of gas stations along every route they might care to take need to be considered. For EVs to have any sort of effect on pollution or climate, citizens of sprawl also have to be on board with the plan. And even once we switch to electric, they're still going to want SUVs that get worse range. Because Costco.

I think most people on this forum probably wouldn't need an urban charging system to get the most out of a BEV. But we aren't most people either.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby David Greene » July 6th, 2017, 10:01 am

That's a good point about the used car market. There are some really affordable LEAFs out there but as you say they will have reduced range.

I wonder though if current charge rates are enough for people doing urban driving. It'd be a huge pain to have to stop for 20 minutes during your commute to charge. If we cut that in half it gets much more interesting.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby acs » July 6th, 2017, 10:06 am

Reduced battery capacity also means reduced charging time, no? Maybe as the EV fleet ages we'll hit a sweet spot where charging time is reduced and range is still good enough to make it more practical for commuters.

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Re: RE: Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby David Greene » July 6th, 2017, 10:49 am


Reduced battery capacity also means reduced charging time, no?
Not necessarily. Quoted charge times are generally for 80% charge as pushing the level beyond that significantly increases charge time (charging slows as the battery fills). Lower-capacity batteries are more likely to need to go to 100%, so charging could actually take longer. I don't know if a battery with, say, 20% lost capacity takes longer to fill than a full-capacity fill to 80% but I'm sure someone has done the experiments.


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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Silophant » July 6th, 2017, 10:56 am

That's a good point about the used car market. There are some really affordable LEAFs out there but as you say they will have reduced range.

I wonder though if current charge rates are enough for people doing urban driving. It'd be a huge pain to have to stop for 20 minutes during your commute to charge. If we cut that in half it gets much more interesting.
It would be, but if your (general your, not specifically you) commute is long enough to require a charge midway through, an EV probably isn't for you just yet.

Really, I think a wide-ranging rollout of Level 2 chargers at office buildings and factories, so that commuters can drive an EV to work and have it fully charged at the end of the day, is a more critical first step than a a metro-wide Level 3 charging network. A four-hour charge is no problem if it's time the car would be parked anyway.
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby David Greene » July 6th, 2017, 11:59 am

Good point. Another issue with chargers is availability. They could be full with other EVs of course but right now the biggest problem is non-EVs parking in charging spaces. This happens all the time at Como, for example. We've submitted comments about it, but no change. Those spots should be reserved for EVs.

And while it would be awesome to have a "reserved" spot right near the carousel, those spots should be restricted not just to EVs but to EVs actually charging. Chargers usually have time limits and people should move once the charge is complete.

Another common problem is people insisting they need to charge to 100%, which takes at least twice as much time and blocks the charger from everyone else.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Silophant » July 9th, 2017, 9:17 pm

Great minds think alike, apparently.

As per usual, I disagree with Garafolo, and this is exactly the kind of thing the government should be investing in if we're serious about keeping our Paris commitment. But, on the other hand, this kinda thing is a no-brainer for utilities to invest in. The easiest way to weather the rooftop solar onslaught is to make it as easy as possible for people to buy a car that shifts 30% or more of their total energy use from gasoline to electric. I mean, I'm by no means the average Xcel customer, living in a one-bedroom apartment without electric A/C, but charging a Bolt only 3x a month would at least double my power consumption. It's a win-win.
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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby David Greene » July 10th, 2017, 2:56 pm

Unless your solar array is going to fully power the car. :)

Ours won't, but it comes surprisingly close during the summer. If we had a more favorable house shape we could very well cover all of the house and car needs.

I've seriously toyed with the idea of building a new garage specifically designed to maximize solar panel area. I figure it will be like some sort of extreme saltbox.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby MNdible » July 10th, 2017, 3:25 pm

I've seriously toyed with the idea of building a new garage specifically designed to maximize solar panel area.
I've been going through the exact same mental exercise...

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby RailBaronYarr » July 10th, 2017, 3:30 pm

I think I've brought this up before, but.... why not just subscribe to a community solar garden? So far since February, my share has produced more energy than I've used each month. We'll see how my June-July bill looks since we've been using AC, but it may be canceled out by the better insolation. No, we don't have an electric vehicle to plug in, but I doubt even a maximized house+garage roof pitch on a Minneapolis lot could cover that much anyway.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby David Greene » July 10th, 2017, 3:57 pm

It's intangible, but I think there's benefit to people actually seeing physical solar on rooftops. It gets them thinking they they can go solar too. I can tell people we have a solar EV and they can do it too! As you point out, there are different ways to go about it. We're using Made in Minnesota credits, so it also spurs Minnesota's solar industry.

I'm also not sure how quickly solar shares can be implemented and we got the Made in Minnesota grant this year so we had to use it or lose it. This way some public money is directly going to increasing our solar base. I believe public money should be going into changing our electrical infrastructure. It's something I'm glad my taxes pay for.

For me, it basically comes down to a moral argument. We have the advantages and capability to do it and thus we should. Given the aforementioned inspiration capital and investment in Minnesota industries, it seems more powerful overall to contribute physically to the creation of our distributed solar generator network.

Maybe not the answer you were looking for, but it's what I've got.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby David Greene » July 10th, 2017, 3:58 pm

I've seriously toyed with the idea of building a new garage specifically designed to maximize solar panel area.
I've been going through the exact same mental exercise...
I'd be interested in collaborating/stealing any designs because we seriously need to replace our dilapidated garage in the next few years.

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Re: Future cars / Driverless cars

Postby Silophant » July 10th, 2017, 6:11 pm

Unless your solar array is going to fully power the car. :)
True enough, but roadside chargers (and multi-unit buildings) are still going to need a grid connection. I'm surprised to hear that you're getting that close - I didn't realize that a (Minneapolis roof-sized, not McMansion roof-sized) rooftop array would generate that much power without specifically designing it to maximize solar production.
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