Future Cars: Electric and Autonomous Vehicles

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TWA
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Re: Future cars

Postby TWA » July 3rd, 2013, 6:23 am

http://www.fastcoexist.com/1681942/we-m ... y-far-away

"We May All Be Driving Electric Cars In The Future, But That Future Is Really Far Away"

talindsay
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Re: Future cars

Postby talindsay » July 3rd, 2013, 9:34 am

Corn ethanol is energy-negative so it does nothing to help us toward independence; it's only cheaper than gasoline because we subsidize it so heavily. There are energy-positive ethanols, but not from corn.

I drive a Fiat 500, and if the 500e were available in Minnesota I'd seriously consider trading in my 500 for one - my short commute aligns perfectly with the 500e's profile and obviously I like the styling and size. When my wife had her Mazda, I would have had trouble giving up my 500's range - getting 45 mpg on the freeway, I would have hated giving that up for an electric when her Mazda only got 27 mpg on the freeway. But since her VW gets 50 mpg (diesel) on the freeway, I don't need to ever drive my 500 on the freeway. Once freeway use is eliminated, an electric car is practical for all other uses.

mattaudio
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Re: Future cars

Postby mattaudio » July 3rd, 2013, 10:03 am

None of these things are the silver bullet, and after reading Kuntsler's The Long Emergency I'm even more convinced that our current land use patterns will be financially unproductive and overly expensive within a few decades (and technology will only solve a small share of the total problem).

Biodiesel is also one of those technologies. Much better than ethanol. It burns cleaner in diesel engines, it's cheap and easy to produce (some people even make it at home), and it's not competing for our food crops.

Mdcastle
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Re: Future cars

Postby Mdcastle » July 3rd, 2013, 11:41 am

I don't see ethanol being energy negative as a big negative. It's energy negative to transport electricity from the generating plant to our houses to. We can make ethanol with wind, solar, coal, nuclear whatever the US has, and use it in our cars. An ethanol car is going to be every bit as usable as a gasoline car, without relying on middle east oil.

RailBaronYarr
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Re: Future cars

Postby RailBaronYarr » July 3rd, 2013, 11:48 am

Why does everyone get so hung up on energy independence, to the point that we're willing to subsidize entire industries to do so? Ethanol being energy negative is bad because we're wasting energy to create a different form of potential energy for a single use. We're also doing so in competition with foodstuffs. No one has a problem that we're not "TV independent," "cheap cameras independent," etc. The middle east has oil. They can produce it easier and cheaper than we can, which means we're willing to trade with them, and they will (hopefully) consume things that we can produce better/cheaper (like, corn). This is good (in general) if we want people across the world to improve their lot in life the same way we have. As long as they're not violating human rights in doing so, this is a good thing. If not depending on the whims of oil cartels is our collective decided path, then let's not sibsidize unproductive energy sectors (like drawing oil out of tar sands, subsidizing corn for ethanol to make it a viable economic alternative to oil produced in the middle east, etc). Let's reduce our need for the energy. OR, charge market prices for the negative effects of given energy sources (carbon tax, etc) that allows renewables, biodiesels, etc to become economically viable thanks to their lack of future environmental harm.

Rich
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Re: Future cars

Postby Rich » July 3rd, 2013, 1:31 pm

The U.S. economy can be brought to it's knees by political troubles in oil-producing nations, or by the whims of OPEC's production plans. And there's not nearly enough oil under us to drill our way out this mess. I think electric cars powered by locally installed wind and solar would definitely add to our political and economic stability.

Isn't the corn-based ethanol craze mostly a result of politicians sucking up to rural states (Iowa in particular)? Hopefully we'll move past that. There are better crops with which to make fuel.

Matt
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Re: Future cars

Postby Matt » July 3rd, 2013, 5:57 pm

I'm not a supporter of corn based ethanol but recent production methods to appear to be energy positive, or at least some tests are finding that it isn't obviously energy negative like it maybe once was. Source: http://www.afdc.energy.gov/fuels/ethano ... asics.html

Quote from the source listed above:
"Some studies suggest that corn-based ethanol has a negative energy balance, meaning it takes more energy to produce the fuel than the amount of energy the fuel provides. However, recent studies using updated data about corn production methods demonstrate a positive energy balance for corn ethanol.

Cellulosic ethanol, which is produced from non-food based feedstocks, is expected to improve the energy balance of ethanol, because non-food-based feedstocks are anticipated to require less fossil fuel energy to produce ethanol. Biomass used to power the process of converting non-food-based feedstocks into cellulosic ethanol is also expected to reduce the amount of fossil fuel energy used in production. Another potential benefit of cellulosic ethanol is that it produces lower levels of greenhouse gas emissions. "

UptownSport
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Re: Future cars

Postby UptownSport » July 3rd, 2013, 11:00 pm

Ethanol can be made from about anything-

Inmates would make alcohol even in tightly controlled segregation cells- And it was powerful enough to get them 'lit!'

Field corn isn't a food- It's used for animal feed, home heating, liquor and corn syrup (give me a little license on the last one, Mountain Dew can sustain you, technically)
It's funny you don't hear people up in arms that we're using grains (which certainly are human food) for beer and liquor!

The leftover from the 'beer' after alcohol is distilled out is still used for animal feed, so it's still feed!
The U.S. economy can be brought to it's knees by political troubles in oil-producing nations, or by the whims of OPEC's production plans. And there's not nearly enough oil under us to drill our way out this mess. I think electric cars powered by locally installed wind and solar would definitely add to our political and economic stability.
Exactly- All OPEC would have to do is announce, just announce- a 20% cut in production and we'd be on our knees.
Isn't the corn-based ethanol craze mostly a result of politicians sucking up to rural states (Iowa in particular)? Hopefully we'll move past that. There are better crops with which to make fuel.
Ethanol 'craze' began before there was gasoline readily available. Model T ran on Ethanol as there weren't filling stations- farmers simply distilled it!
It's a great fuel, and is capable of more energy output than diesel (EPA Study if anyone's interested)
You can use a very small engine and get high to near extreme outputs, this means your typical Caravan could use a fuel efficient 1.4 liter.

There's also Methanol.

Both these fuels are cheap and are used in radical output racing engines.

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woofner
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Re: Future cars

Postby woofner » August 6th, 2013, 10:50 am

I thought it was more recently that we were talking about this, but the Do the Math blog just had a post about electric vehicles, and linked to this EPA site that tells you the energy mix and carbon intensity of your region's electricity:

http://oaspub.epa.gov/powpro/ept_pack.charts

It shows that the upper midwest is more carbon-intensive than the nation as a whole, and if my understanding of the Do the Math explanation of the formula for the net carbon footprint of an electric vehicle is correct, that means that electric vehicles in MN are significantly worse for climate stability than gas vehicles. Check the section called CO2 Emissions in this post:

http://physics.ucsd.edu/do-the-math/201 ... bite-back/

This graphic is from the post, and to understand part of why electric cars in MN have a larger carbon footprint than gas vehicles, multiply the length of the bar labeled 'Electricity (Calif. mix)' by 2.5:

Image

He also linked to this article in the IEEE magazine which looks interesting but I haven't read yet:

http://spectrum.ieee.org/energy/renewab ... -any-speed
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David Greene
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Re: Future cars

Postby David Greene » August 6th, 2013, 11:01 am

Very interesting article. I just want to highlight this since it's not directly related to the current topic.

"Although I don’t self-identify as being in the 'upper class,' our income edges us into the top quintile in the U.S. "

This, I believe, is at the root of most of our society's ills. Here's a guy who makes more than 80% of people in the U.S. and he doesn't even consider himself being "upper class." I know people in the top 5% who think they are middle class.

I believe this phenomenon is explained by the incredibly steep income curve as you travel through the top 10%. People at the top 5% point don't feel rich, even though they are, because those in the top, say, 3% make *so much more* money. In a sense, people instinctively understand the income and wealth disparity but can't actually name it.

In any case, the fact that people don't know they're rich is why it's been easy to give tax cuts to the rich -- the lie is calling it a middle-class tax cut. The consequences for our infrastructure and social services is well documented. It also explains the decreased sympathy for the *real* middle class and working poor. Those making $100k+ seems to be thinking, "*I'm* middle class and making it, why can't they?"

When money becomes god, this is what happens.

mulad
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Re: Future cars

Postby mulad » August 6th, 2013, 11:22 am

I suppose I'm trying to find a silver lining in a pile of turds, but multiplying the California electric mix by 2.5 results in a number around 100 or just a bit larger. I'm betting that our gasoline is generally worse than California reformulated gasoline, since a large chunk of it comes from tar sands oil, which gets piped in from Alberta. I think there's still a lot of conventional oil being produced up there, but tar sands oil is an increasing proportion over time.

So while it would probably be best for a lot of Minnesotans to switch to CNG vehicles, there aren't a whole lot of those available. I still figure it's best to go electric and just pay Xcel a bit more for Windsource, or do whatever else you feel like to get a more renewable type of energy.

I also used to buy carbon offsets for my car through TerraPass, though I guess I've lapsed with that for a few years.

David Greene
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Re: Future cars

Postby David Greene » August 6th, 2013, 11:28 am

I still figure it's best to go electric and just pay Xcel a bit more for Windsource, or do whatever else you feel like to get a more renewable type of energy..
Or charge it with solar panels, which is our plan.

talindsay
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Re: Future cars

Postby talindsay » August 6th, 2013, 11:43 am

Or buy a VW turbodiesel. We love ours.

UptownSport
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Re: Future cars

Postby UptownSport » August 10th, 2013, 8:27 pm

Our family had our first one, 79 rabbit that my bro literally drove the wheels off of (it wasn't a turbo, just diesel), now they have two VW TD's.
Efficiency is insane.
The diesel farm trucks get in the low 20's, also remarkable because they're so much heavier than a half ton.

EPA did a study using VW diesels direct injecting E85.
The fuel was more efficient than fuel oil, and, obviously much less expensive

UptownSport
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Re: Future cars

Postby UptownSport » August 28th, 2013, 6:51 pm

smart released an e version, 68 mile range.
They claim to sell for as low as $12,490

http://www.smartusa.com/models/electric ... _LEASE_139

mulad
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Re: Future cars

Postby mulad » August 30th, 2013, 10:06 pm

I found a site that tracks monthly sales figures for all-electric and plug-in hybrid cars. I think that a lot of these models have regional appeal, since I see Chevy Volts basically every day, Nissan Leafs around once every week or so, and I've still only seen one Tesla Model S so far -- in overall figures this year, all three are pretty much neck-and-neck. I've also seen a few Mitsubishi i-MiEVs, which is not even selling at 1/10th the rate of the others. I'm not sure how many of these may be fleet sales to the city or UMN or whatever...

Most of the remaining models are just available with an electric option, and are hard to distinguish without looking for distinctive badging or aerodynamic tweaks.

http://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/

mplsjaromir
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Re: Future cars

Postby mplsjaromir » August 31st, 2013, 6:53 am

I see a Fisker Karma often.

blobs
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Re: Southwest Corridor (Green Line Extension)

Postby blobs » November 22nd, 2013, 11:27 am

I have a feeling that by the time SW LRT gets build, we will have autonomous cars (self-driving) or be just a couple years away from having them, rendering LRT obsolete.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous ... rojections
By 2018, Google expects to release their autonomous car technology.[84]
By 2020, Volvo envisages having cars in which passengers would be immune from injuries.[77][85]
By 2020, GM, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, Nissan and BMW all expect to sell autonomous cars.

VAStationDude
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Re: Southwest Corridor (Green Line Extension)

Postby VAStationDude » November 22nd, 2013, 11:32 am

Wouldn't the same technology made the train driver obsolete and thereby make LRT even more economical than it currently is with a well paid union driver operating each train set?

Tom H.
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Re: Southwest Corridor (Green Line Extension)

Postby Tom H. » November 22nd, 2013, 1:08 pm

Even if that comes to pass in quantities large enough to even be meaningful, why would this make LRT (or any form of transit) obsolete? Self-driving cars still require highways, individual vehicle ownership, vehicle storage facilities, costly fuel, harmful emissions, etc. - i.e., 90% of the problems associated with automobiles today.


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