Traffic projection accuracy

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Anondson
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Traffic projection accuracy

Postby Anondson » November 30th, 2014, 1:00 pm

It seems transportation departments and ministries around the planet are all failing to predict future traffic demands accurately for the past decade. Not just the U.S. ... http://www.humantransit.org/2014/07/how ... ction.html

But also New Zealand ... http://transportblog.co.nz/2014/12/01/p ... re-demand/

Are there any states or countries that have accurately predicted the current motorized traffic trends they are having for the past decade?

min-chi-cbus
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby min-chi-cbus » December 1st, 2014, 9:41 am

Is there a general trend that you're seeing (i.e. underestimates/overestimates projected traffic)? I see that the article talks about overestimating, but is that also what you're noticing?

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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby FISHMANPET » December 1st, 2014, 10:22 am

This is what he's talking about:
Image

Planners have been predicting increased traffic for a while and it's hot happening, but their models aren't changing.

Second only to this, my favorite "missed projections" graph, though totally unrelated to transportation:
Image
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby David Greene » December 1st, 2014, 10:30 am

FISHMANPET wrote:Second only to this, my favorite "missed projections" graph, though totally unrelated to transportation:
Image
Off topic, but in grad school I sat in on an architecture reading group and we read all of the EPIC papers out of Illinois (EPIC was funded by Intel and Itanium is pretty much a carbon-copy). The professors and senior students all concluded that if EPIC were to be implemented it would be a huge failure.

Ever since that experience I haven't had much faith that hundreds of computer engineers with fancy letters after their names really know anything more than some grad student sitting in a cube.

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Anondson
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby Anondson » December 1st, 2014, 1:35 pm

Looking at the New Zealand traffic forecast graph, it does look like they are adjusting things, the slope of growth is less steep the more recent we get.

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Anondson
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby Anondson » December 3rd, 2014, 12:13 pm

From David Levinson's blog, "...the severity of future congestion problems is systematically overestimated."

http://transportationist.org/2014/12/03 ... ernatives/

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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby seanrichardryan » December 26th, 2014, 11:51 pm

Q. What, what? A. In da butt.

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Anondson
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby Anondson » March 12th, 2016, 10:51 pm

Thread NECROMANCY!

Found a posting from Australia about the rampant failure to model traffic forecasts there too.

https://theconversation.com/defying-the ... ness-53099

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Anondson
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Traffic projection accuracy

Postby Anondson » August 3rd, 2016, 5:40 pm

Will this be a year the traffic congestion worsening happens according to the expert forecasts? Or will it be no big deal as usual.

http://www.startribune.com/congestion-i ... 389047591/

MNDOT is projecting worsening congestion.

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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby min-chi-cbus » August 4th, 2016, 1:52 pm

With all of the construction going on for hwy's 100 this year, 169 next year, I-35W in the north metro, etc. I don't see an end in sight anytime soon. Esp. for the SW metro. Isn't there a plan to formally rehab the northern half of I-35W in S. Mpls from 42nd street to downtown? That will also be a major major bottleneck.

On the other hand, it's amazing to me that a metro that's regarded as the 16th largest (15th, if you consider Riverside as part of greater LA) is only the 23rd worst congested metro in the nation. Off the top of my head I can think of: Austin, Denver, maybe Portland that are likely worse. What are the other 4-5?

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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby Tcmetro » August 16th, 2016, 12:29 pm


xandrex
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby xandrex » August 23rd, 2016, 9:29 am

VMT increasing faster than any time in recent history: https://twitter.com/yfreemark/status/768102262245851138

(I know this isn't a projection, but this was the closest topic it would fit in)

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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby MNdible » August 23rd, 2016, 10:35 am

But Millennials don't want to drive.

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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby BoredAgain » August 23rd, 2016, 2:02 pm

MNdible wrote:But Millennials don't want to drive.
I don't want to pay taxes. That doesn't mean I have a realistic choice on the matter.

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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby mister.shoes » August 23rd, 2016, 9:10 pm

MNdible wrote:But Millennials don't want to drive.
Nope, but they loooooooove Uber.
The problem with being an introvert online is that no one knows you're just hanging out and listening.

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Anondson
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy

Postby Anondson » April 13th, 2017, 10:13 pm

WisDOT has been in court over its fantasy numbers in filling traffic forecasts.

http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/ ... e7d86.html
Out of forecasts for 30 highway projects, the nonpartisan Legislative Audit Bureau found the department failed to document how it produced 28 of them.


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