Green Line Extension - Southwest LRT

[David Greene]

Do we know what the Midtown Greenway streetcar project is estimated to cost? I ask because a 3C alignment would build about 70% of the trackwork (streetcar proposes all double in the 3C areas), 2 stations (Hennepin & Lyndale, although overbuilt for a streetcar), about half the major bridge re-dos/retaining walls, and about 80% of trail re-construction.

I will have to go back and check but does the streetcar require the bridges to be rebuilt? I'm pretty sure it won't disturb the bike trail at all.

[RailBaronYarr]

^ Yes, there are a couple that would need work, plus a few bridges elsewhere like crossing the lake channel. Train would need "modifications" in the area highlighted in yellow (page 3): http://www.metrotransit.org/Data/Sites/ ... ndouts.pdf

[David Greene]

^ Yes, there are a couple that would need work, plus a few bridges elsewhere like crossing the lake channel. Train would need "modifications" in the area highlighted in yellow (page 3): http://www.metrotransit.org/Data/Sites/ ... ndouts.pdf

Thanks for that. My "wrong side of Hennepin" bias means I don't think about the utopian bucolic westerly Greenway all that much.

And yeah, because the county stupidly put the trail in the middle of the trench east of roughly Chicago, it will need a rebuild on that stretch. >:-|| I'd forgotten about that.

[Tom H.]

Here's another interesting study from SWLRT, this time about demographics along the line:

http://www.southwesttransitway.org/dmdo ... -Final.pdf

Particularly interesting are the demographics for SouthWest Station and EP City Center, which have a much larger distribution of poor, minority, and renter residents than many people may be aware of - in fact, some of the largest fractions of those groups of any stops along the line. For example, here are the 2010 statistics for a one-mile radius for the two stations, along with the rank among all 15/16/17 stations (depending on whether 21st or Mitchell remain):

Non-white population
SWS: 35% (4th)
EPCC: 38% (2nd)

Fraction of Renter Households
SWS: 62.7% (3rd)
EPCC: 65.5% (1st)

Median Household Net Worth
SWS: $28,710 (5th lowest)
EPCC: $14,666 (3rd lowest)

[David Greene]

Here's another interesting study from SWLRT, this time about demographics along the line:

http://www.southwesttransitway.org/dmdo ... -Final.pdf

Particularly interesting are the demographics for SouthWest Station and EP City Center, which have a much larger distribution of poor, minority, and renter residents than many people may be aware of - in fact, some of the largest fractions of those groups of any stops along the line. For example, here are the 2010 statistics for a one-mile radius for the two stations, along with the rank among all 15/16/17 stations (depending on whether 21st or Mitchell remain)

Thanks for that Tom! This is what I have been telling people about SW LRT for years. The project is about much more than just Minneapolis. Yes, I believe North Minneapolis service is important for equity but just as important for equity is the service in the suburban areas. That's why we desperately need this line!

BTW, the same trends, accelerated, exist in Brooklyn Park and Brooklyn Center. That's why the northerly alignment for Bottineau is generally good from an equity standpoint.

[RailBaronYarr]

I think it's important to point out that in the entirety of the line, only SWS and EPCC overlap each other on a half mile radius. Also, a 1 mile radius means very little for walkability - this is a 20 minute walk by straight lines, and a circular radius means much less in suburbia vs. a grid, particularly where freeways, marshes, mega-developments, and wide arterials are present.

In addition, some other thoughts (all ranks don't include Mitchell station but do include 21st):

2010 population (ranks) (1/2 mile radius, reasonable walk distance)
EPCC - 1,026 (4th lowest)
SWS - 1,871 (7th lowest)

2010 population density pop/acre (ranks) (1/2 mile radius, reasonable walk distance)
EPCC - 2.04 (4th lowest)
SWS - 3.72 (8th lowest)

Keeping in mind some of the stations at the bottom of both of those rankings are where a major concentration of jobs are.

I'd be very curious to see where Uptown, Nicollet/Lake, Nicollet/Franklin, etc all compare in terms of population, density, % of and absolute population of minorities, net household worth, car ownership rates, etc. I know it's been visually shown here before, but would be good to know.

[RailBaronYarr]

As a follow-up, using net worth is a little misleading, IMO. Most of the people living within a half (or even full mile) of those stations are young people who are renting for the first time. The net worth + average salary data reflects this fact - very little savings, high % of renters equals no capital assets beyond a car, but good starting salary at one of the local tech/manufacturing companies. I work with plenty of people who have lived in the apartments right by the EP SWS or in the apartments by the Brunswick Zone.

I am very aware of and sympathetic to the nature of rising suburban poverty and the horrible ramifications it has for those who may become stranded. But given the relative lack of jobs within walking distance of these end stations, the difficulty in serving them by local transit (thank you, suburban sprawl street/freeway design), and the reality of the % of people who wither 1) own cars and work locally or 2) work downtown where they'll be well-served by express bus, I think we should really ask how important these last couple stations are. At least for the initial build of the line.

[Rich]

Particularly interesting are the demographics for SouthWest Station and EP City Center, which have a much larger distribution of poor, minority, and renter residents than many people may be aware of - in fact, some of the largest fractions of those groups of any stops along the line.

Thanks for the info Tom. There are still a few misguided folks under the impression that this part of town is nothing but mcmansions. Those of us who know the area aren’t at all surprised by these numbers.

[UptownSport]

It's amazing what you can do with statistics, if you want to.
Here's some more from wikipedia, think they got it from census.
If you care to dig further, there's a stat that shows EP as lilly White.

The median income for a household in the city was $54,328, and the median income for a family was $105,177. Males had a median income of $59,303 versus $37,196 for females. The per capita income for the city was $38,854. About 2.8% of families and 3.5% of the population were below thepoverty line, including 7.9% of those under age 18 and 6.3% of those age 65 or over.

Now even if we were to be convinced EP were pauperville, why would it need LRT service? We've heard again and again how the area is a Mecca for jobs seekers- what this means is all those poor people should be gainfully employed right where they live!

Sadly, the line is simply to get the Lilly Whites to lucrative jobs dowtown, even faster and in more comfort than the current 'opt out' transit system.

[phop]

I wouldn't call it "lilly white". According to wikipedia, Eden Prairie is 81.7% white (2010 census). That's a fairly high percentage, but two of the four other cities with LRT stations are less racially diverse at 90.0% (Minnetonka) and 83.3% (St. Louis Park).

[RailBaronYarr]

Thanks for the info Tom. There are still a few misguided folks under the impression that this part of town is nothing but mcmansions. Those of us who know the area aren’t at all surprised by these numbers.

Maybe I'm not speaking for everyone who questions the EP extensions, but that's certainly not my impression. That said, given the lack of a walkable street grid, sidewalks, barriers to good urban development thanks to freeways and marshes and existing giant mega-block companies, Brunswick Zones, surface parking serving strip commercial centers, and existing/planned parking garages, what little development does exist is not a great worthy location for a LRT stop. Beyond that, the folks in McMansions a mere mile or 2 further are the ones who will be driving to the ramps and using the line.

If the Mitchell Road station shaved off $80m by cutting it, I'm curious how much more would be saved by truncating the line at Golden Triangle. How much do the many miles of track, flyovers, new bridges, and the 2 platforms cost? It's an honest question.

[Tom H.]

Yeah, it's true that most of Eden Prairie (by area) is your standard McMansion suburb; however, EP is big (a full 6 mile x 6 mile township), and most of the rental units (and non-lily-white population) is located near the EP center where SWLRT is meant to go.

If they were proposing to run SWLRT through the McMansion neighborhods (as Option 1 did, along the RR right-of-way all the way to Mitchell), you could make the argument that we're only serving cul-de-sacs. As it is now, the EPCC and SWS stops are not all that different in character from, say, the Blake Road stop in Hopkins.

Also, the Brunswick Zone area is the heart of a planned "city center" project to try to create something of a downtown Eden Prairie. Again, I'm not arguing that the EP stops are a slam-dunk, but they provide enough in the way of benefit to be worthy of their costs (in my opinion).

Here's the link to the redevelopment plan, which includes the eventual demolition and replacement of the Walmart and Costco: http://www.edenprairie.org/modules/show ... mentid=359

[RailBaronYarr]

That Walmart was just completely re-done, and the Costco is, what, 10 years old? Add in the vast amounts of parking serving all the random restaurants, businesses, and industrial sites (I work for Emerson and can say with certainty that plot isn't changing). I have serious doubts the area will/can transform in that way, at least not without massive eminent domain/subsidies. Also keep in mind what building a 4-6 story parking structure for opening day does to limit future development, both in land-use opportunity cost and required road network/traffic to support it. Call me a pessimist, but just my take.

Also, can we also highlight that the majority of the non-white demographics in both SWS and EPCC walk-sheds are listed as Asian, with comparatively small African American populations. Maybe these folks are Hmong immigrants/transplants, I don't know. But looking at the average yearly salary I'm inclined to think this area is not necessarily transit-dependent.

Beyond that, why not be smart with this project for opening day and not build out to there, but leave it open for the future LRT extension. If the area is as ripe for smart growth as that plan lays out, it should be able to get halfway there without a transit line. Maybe when the population within a 10 minute walk comes within 50% of other dense, walkable neighborhoods (both on the line and where the line could go, like Uptown), a $100-150m project could be easily justified.

[Tom H.]

Of course, everything we're talking about here is merely academic. There is no way that this line moves forward, politically, without getting to Eden Prairie. Nearly all of the moderate, business-friendly DFL state representatives elected from the southwest suburbs in 2012 campaigned heavily on getting LRT out to their constituents.

[RailBaronYarr]

Well if they campaigned for it, it must happen.

[David Greene]

It's amazing what you can do with statistics, if you want to.

Yes it is. The biggest lie is reporting averages and ignoring deviations.

The poorer populations tend to be concentrated. This is nothing new. The fact that citywide averages dilute that doesn't change the fact that poor people live there.

[RailBaronYarr]

How much do you suppose the numbers are deviated within a 1/2 mile or 1 mile radius of the stations in EP when the populations under consideration are under 2,000 people?

[David Greene]

How much do you suppose the numbers are deviated within a 1/2 mile or 1 mile radius of the stations in EP when the populations under consideration are under 2,000 people?

Maybe those populations aren't all completely transit-dependent?

Or does LRT now only exist for transit-dependent populations? That's news to me.

[RailBaronYarr]

Or does LRT now only exist for transit-dependent populations? That's news to me.

Was it? It seems like serving transit-dependent North Minneapolis folks is a major reason to support a 3A alignment.

I completely agree that there are plenty of non-transit dependent people within a 1+ mile radius of the EP stations, and serving commuting trips 5 times a week certainly helps environmental goals. ...if you assume any sort of majority of those people currently driving to downtown (who have a faster, more frequent express bus service today) or to job centers along the line (Golden Triangle, Opus, Hopkins, etc) will continue owning their car to get to the station, transfer, then have to walk 10+ minutes at those jobs.

LRT shouldn't exist for any particular population or demographic. It should be used to connect walkable nodes with high concentrations of jobs, entertainment, and housing surrounding it. The EP stations don't do that, and I'm not even certain there's any sort of social justice angle given the low populations and densities with reasonably high average salaries (higher than average of all the stations on the line).

[alleycat]

Or does LRT now only exist for transit-dependent populations? That's news to me.

Was it? It seems like serving transit-dependent North Minneapolis folks is a major reason to support a 3A alignment.

I completely agree that there are plenty of non-transit dependent people within a 1+ mile radius of the EP stations, and serving commuting trips 5 times a week certainly helps environmental goals. ...if you assume any sort of majority of those people currently driving to downtown (who have a faster, more frequent express bus service today) or to job centers along the line (Golden Triangle, Opus, Hopkins, etc) will continue owning their car to get to the station, transfer, then have to walk 10+ minutes at those jobs.

LRT shouldn't exist for any particular population or demographic. It should be used to connect walkable nodes with high concentrations of jobs, entertainment, and housing surrounding it. The EP stations don't do that, and I'm not even certain there's any sort of social justice angle given the low populations and densities with reasonably high average salaries (higher than average of all the stations on the line).

This back and forth is getting so old. I'm not even sure why I read the transit posts at this point. We all know that the David is devoted to 3A. RailBaron thinks that LRT should only go through dense urban areas and cars should take a hike. That's great, but 3C is not getting built and David's fight for a handful of North Minneapolis residents (One of whom I am. But I'm not a minority, so I don't count.) is a rounding error when it comes to actual ridership for the line.

The real issue at hand right now is that we have a governor who is talking about not funding the state's share in the coming session. I guess the 3C crowd thinks this would be great, but this will set back Bottineau, the line that actually serves quite a few low to middle income, working class suburbs and Minneapolis neighborhoods.

SWLRT needs to get funded and it needs to be tied to Midtown Greenway/Nicollet Streetcar/aBRT funding to make up for collocation. That is the actual best result to come out of this fiasco. Should 3C have been the route? Yes, but the power-that-be aren't looking in that direction.