Green Line Extension - Southwest LRT

[RailBaronYarr]

Conceptual alternative https://streets.mn/2015/04/29/southstar- ... ightbox/0/

[David Greene]

Conceptual alternative https://streets.mn/2015/04/29/southstar- ... ightbox/0/

I don't see how that serves anyone well. SWLRT left HCRRA property southwest of Hopkins for a reason. There are no jobs along the HCRRA property west of Hopkins and almost no commerce. It's almost entirely residential. That doesn't drive ridership. The line needs to serve multiple destinations, not just multiple origins.

SWLRT is routed the way it is for a reason. A line continuing on HCRRA property is not going to be successful.

[Nick]

It serves southwest metro commuters okay, and that's who the line was designed to serve.

Re: pretend argument about this line I made elsewhere:

I would point out that density doesn’t cover the entire issue, land use is just as important if not more so.

Aside from tens of people in Harrison who may opt to get a job in Eden Prairie within walking distance of the line, who does this actually benefit on the Northside? Are we building this for people who are going to take a fifty minute, two seat transit ride from the Hawthorne neighborhood to Eden Prairie and then walk a half mile along a stroad to entry level jobs near Eden Prairie Center? Do we think that people on the Northside with well-paid IT jobs in the Golden Triangle are going to not own cars and take advantage of the lack of congestion with a reverse commute (to an office park with free parking) that will take half as long as the train?

What is going on?

There are literally hundreds of thousands of existing jobs accessible by a single seat transit trip from West Broadway in half the time it would take someone to get to the Golden Triangle. Is adding a couple thousand more ten miles away going to make any difference?

[Nick]

It serves southwest metro commuters okay, and that's who the line was designed to serve.

Re: pretend argument about this line I made elsewhere:

I would point out that density doesn’t cover the entire issue, land use is just as important if not more so.

Aside from tens of people in Harrison who may opt to get a job in Eden Prairie within walking distance of the line, who does this actually benefit on the Northside? Are we building this for people who are going to take a fifty minute, two seat transit ride from the Hawthorne neighborhood to Eden Prairie and then walk a half mile along a stroad to entry level jobs near Eden Prairie Center? Do we think that people on the Northside with well-paid IT jobs in the Golden Triangle are going to not own cars and take advantage of the lack of congestion with a reverse commute (to an office park with free parking) that will take half as long as the train?

What is going on?

There are literally hundreds of thousands of existing jobs accessible by a single seat transit trip from West Broadway in half the time it would take someone to get to the Golden Triangle. Is adding a couple thousand more ten miles away going to make any difference?

As a general aside after people have probably started typing responses: I'd give half a pinky to turn the 5 into a subway. Could dig. That's something worth fighting for.

[David Greene]

It serves southwest metro commuters okay, and that's who the line was designed to serve.

I know we'll never agree (so let's not rehash the the Northside argument), but SWLRT serves more than EP commuters and the Northside. There are lots of low-income communties all along the alignment. Commuter rail would presumably have many fewer stops, cutting those folks off.

You want a big parking ramp out by Duck Lake or something? I just don't get why the HCRRA property is at all interesting west of Hopkins.

[Nick]

(so let's not rehash the the Northside argument)

Aside from tens of people in Harrison who may opt to get a job in Eden Prairie within walking distance of the line, who does this actually benefit on the Northside? Are we building this for people who are going to take a fifty minute, two seat transit ride from the Hawthorne neighborhood to Eden Prairie and then walk a half mile along a stroad to entry level jobs near Eden Prairie Center? Do we think that people on the Northside with well-paid IT jobs in the Golden Triangle are going to not own cars and take advantage of the lack of congestion with a reverse commute (to an office park with free parking) that will take half as long as the train?

There are literally hundreds of thousands of existing jobs accessible by a single seat transit trip from West Broadway in half the time it would take someone to get to the Golden Triangle. Is adding a couple thousand more ten miles away going to make any difference?

[RailBaronYarr]

I'm not here to super defend the commuter proposal. But even that conceptual image shows just 2 fewer stations between Hopkins and downtown Minneapolis (Wooddale and Van White). To say it doesn't serve anyone well is to wear some major blinders. The AA specifically said <25% of daily boardings would be for 'reverse' trips, and j can only assume more than 0 of them would be getting off In Hopkins or SLP.

I'm not saying it's ideal, but if you can't imagine a line terminating at Hopkins with 10-15 minute headways all day, maybe electrification to appease neighbors, all for <$500m being useful to a solid number of people, I dunno. It's not even up for debate as an option?

[Nick]

It's worth pointing out that the official projections were full of hot garbage, though, right?

I'm fine with the recent w/e ~$300 million dollar-ish commuter rail proposal, for what it's worth.

[MSPtoMKE]

The extra retaining walls also require additional land acquisition so there is sort of a domino effect to all of this. Another example is the additional vehicles, which then trigger additional OMF space requirehments which in turn means more soil remediation costs (the pollution is mainly at the OMF site).

Concerning the extra vehicles, they're needed because after analyzing the latest geometries taking into account curves and elevation changes, the trains can't run quite as fast as originally thought so to maintain frequency they need another trainset. I don't know what that does to trip times but no one asked and no one mentioned it as a problem.

So cutting Mitchell Station would save on the cost of a station, park and ride lot, a significant amount of track, but also potentially the need for an extra trainset, and a larger OMF facility (with more soil remediation). Seems like a no-brainier that it should be cut.

[froggie]

However, per 2011 jobs numbers (part of what I used for my average density graphic), there are about 4300 jobs in close vicinity to the proposed Mitchell Station...in an area bounded by 212, Mitchell Rd, and Scenic Heights Rd. Though theoretically most of these are probably city jobs (city hall and the police department are on the same block as the planned station), this is a decent chunk of jobs that would be cut off from transit if Mitchell Station is cut.

[twincitizen]

If SWLRT is to get built in any way resembling its current configuration, it seems inevitable that Mitchell Station will get cut. $80MM I think was the number given earlier. If this project needs to shed $250-300MM in costs, that is without a doubt the first decision you make, no?

[Archiapolis]

It serves southwest metro commuters okay, and that's who the line was designed to serve.

Re: pretend argument about this line I made elsewhere:

I would point out that density doesn’t cover the entire issue, land use is just as important if not more so.

Aside from tens of people in Harrison who may opt to get a job in Eden Prairie within walking distance of the line, who does this actually benefit on the Northside? Are we building this for people who are going to take a fifty minute, two seat transit ride from the Hawthorne neighborhood to Eden Prairie and then walk a half mile along a stroad to entry level jobs near Eden Prairie Center? Do we think that people on the Northside with well-paid IT jobs in the Golden Triangle are going to not own cars and take advantage of the lack of congestion with a reverse commute (to an office park with free parking) that will take half as long as the train?

What is going on?

There are literally hundreds of thousands of existing jobs accessible by a single seat transit trip from West Broadway in half the time it would take someone to get to the Golden Triangle. Is adding a couple thousand more ten miles away going to make any difference?

<clap clap clap>

[RailBaronYarr]

It's worth pointing out that the official projections were full of hot garbage, though, right?

Yes. I'd guess that actually running with the commuter proposal would mean all-new projections. But if you're talking conceptually, they're a reference point for politicians etc.

EDIT (ugh):

So, let's say we went this path: eliminate Mitchell station, which may allow cutting the added O/M facility costs & added trainsets. Get rid of the Kenilworth tunnel and just buy out the townhomes. You save some contingency costs in not tunneling/adding that extra track, along with the $23m cited in added tunnel costs. Add back in ~$60m for townhome buyout. That plan shaves around $177 million off while retaining the rest of the alignment/stations. Is that enough?

[Anondson]

If Mitchell is dropped as a station then upgrades will be needed to Southwest. Larger ramp. Maybe even greater road and signal improvements.

FWIW...

[twincitizen]

There is no way Minneapolis signs off on all modes at grade through Kenilworth. Buying out that strip of townhomes (full or partial) was *supposed* to be the plan all along if co-location happened. That never came to pass. By the time co-location became apparent by late 2013, buying out a few townhomes had completely fallen off the radar of discussion, as if it wasn't even an option. Why? Not because buying a few dozen townhomes would be politically difficult. In fact, I don't think it would be all that bad. We stopped talking about it because the city was not open to at-grade co-location, period. I can't see Minneapolis changing course on that. I suspect Met Council knows it as well. I really doubt dropping the shallow tunnel is on the table, as it would almost certainly kill the project. Unless a miracle occurs that gets freight rail out of the corridor, the tunnel stays.

[HiawathaGuy]

Great Letter to the Editor in the Star Tribune today David!

[acs]

My biggest question is what are the changes and cuts that would save time and get this open faster. Unfortunately, politicians like to talk about taking a break, going back to the drawing board, then maybe coming back with a new proposal to save money. Construction inflation waits for nobody and it's especially costly here where we can't work year-round so we have to hit specific seasons. That's why I'd be skeptical of cutting stations as a first choice (even though I think Mitchell Rd is unnecessary) simply because the municipal consent process that will result will only delay things more and we may not save save that much money in the end while we'll have less utility. We wouldn't want to get into a burning the furniture scenario.

[MNdible]

I just read Nick's post over at streets.mn, and I appreciate that he's taken the time to break things down on inflation. But I still think everybody is underestimating how big of a factor that's playing in the cost escalation. Mike's comparisons to the as-built blue and green lines is also helpful, but...

First, it's not enough to escalate things through 2015 dollars, since that's not when the thing is actually getting built. It needs to get escalated out to 2018 and 2019, because that's when most of the dollars will actually be spent. Second, it's not enough to apply regular CPI inflation rates to the costs, because construction costs have been inflating faster than the CPI for much of the last decade.

The other aspect that I alluded to above is that engineers on these types of projects tend to operate separate from budget constraints. That is, they design the project so that it meets all of their preferred geometries, etc., and don't worry much about the cost impacts of those decisions. Compare this to how you would do work on your house -- your general contractor might tell you that to make your house look the very best, you should do a full plaster skimcoat on all of your walls, but that will cost you an extra $3,000. You would look at your budget and realize that you don't have $3,000 to spare and tell them to just do regular mud and tape.

[RailBaronYarr]

Yes, even at a modest 1.5% inflation rate, you're talking $25-30 million every year this delays. Construction inflation for roads/rail was low from 2008-12 (ish), but was pushing the 5-8% range in the early 2000s, and is now back up to the 2.5-3% range (while CPI has been 1.5-2% the past couple years). This Army Corps document is a pretty good reference, even giving historic adjustments by state.

It sure would be nice to have gone back in time and build all these rail lines in 1980 when we did the studies (and while a second generation of major roads were being built in the region). Transit is at a huge disadvantage in that respect - property values in urban areas (especially many parts of the core cities) inflated more than CPI as well, meaning freeway trenches probably got a sweetheart deal on their land relative to new transitways as well. I guess, what's the recommendation? Do some minor cost containment and just build it anyway?

[MNdible]

I guess, what's the recommendation? Do some minor cost containment and just build it anyway?

Thanks for asking!

Yeah, that would be my recommendation. This line isn't a slam dunk in the way that the first two lines were, but I do believe that it's the next best line to build in the metro area. This assumes that you're moving it forward in concert with rolling out the aBRT/Streetcar service and other transit improvements, which are all valuable and serve different constituencies.

If somebody made me the transit tsar and not answerable to local political whims, I'd make some modest changes to the line. But I'd definitely still build it.

If somebody gave me unlimited funds, I'd probably build something else entirely, but we're definitely not there.

Something very much like this line is the thing we can build now. It will move a lot of people efficiently. It will make it possible for a big chunk of the metro area to live a more urban lifestyle. Once it's built, I don't think we'll regret it.