Northern Lights Express

Roads - Rails - Sidewalks - Bikeways
mattaudio
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby mattaudio » January 21st, 2014, 11:11 am

Don't get me wrong... I love Duluth and think it's a great city. I also hope they get a rail connection. And I hope they build a new local transit backbone such as this: http://goo.gl/maps/Lufeo

But I'd still rather see ZipRail happen first. Then once people realize how awesome HSR is, it may be even easier to get NLX going.

mulad
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby mulad » January 21st, 2014, 11:54 am

I want to see this project move forward, since I think it represents a good balance of speed and frequency of service. They're into the preliminary engineering already, while Zip Rail still hasn't even chosen a route yet. To be sure, Zip Rail or some equivalent should have happened a long time ago, but the Duluth folks kept working on the idea and are currently ahead. I'm sure Zip Rail will catch up quickly, but I don't see any reason to hold this one back.

Anyway, the initial feasibility studies suggested that the line could be built either with or without the casino connection, though their projections said that the casino link would give a very big boost. Here's a previous article I wrote for streets.mn on the subject, and at the time I leaned in favor of making the connection. I've shifted my opinion a bit since writing that (I reserve my right to waffle) -- it always struck me as odd that the short distance to reach the casino would have such a negative impact, particularly since a free shuttle between a "downtown" station and the casino is virtually guaranteed, and the comments people made on the article reinforced those long-standing reservations.

I tend to like mattaudio's idea of a Kenosha-like streetcar, though it should be built by the casino and city rather than be part of the NLX project. Conversely, if a direct NLX connection to the casino was selected, the casino should pay for a sizable chunk of the cost to build the extra track, particularly since it slows down the end-to-end travel time (probably by at least 3 minutes, likely 2-3 times that, depending on the chosen routing). Additionally, if a casino connection was built, there should be a free shuttle running to the town center anyway, since the 2.5 mile distance is impractical to walk.

I've made an attempt at converting the MnDOT map to Google Maps format, in order to measure some of the distances. If a casino link is built, I'd prefer to see Alternatives 3 (yellow) or 4 (red) used (perhaps a hybrid/compromise of the two) because they add the least overall distance (presumably translating to minimal increases in travel time).



To summarize (my estimates, may be slightly different than MnDOT's):
  • Alternative 1 (blue) adds 2.8 miles to travel distance, requiring 8.8 miles of new track
  • Alternative 2 (orange) adds 6 miles of travel distance, requiring up to 9.2 miles of track (it would use an existing St. Croix Valley Railroad underpass of I-35).
  • Alternative 3 (red) adds 2.6 miles to travel distance, with 6.6 miles of new track
  • Alternative 4 (yellow) adds 2.9 miles to travel distance, with 6.1 miles of new track
  • Alternative 5 (green) adds 4.7 miles to travel distance, with 3.6 miles of new track (travel distance is greater than new track due to it being a spur, though as twincitizen noted, it could allow stations in both central Hinckley and the casino)
  • Alternative 5b (black loop) adds 6.7 miles of travel distance, with 4.1 miles of new track.
The thought did pop into my head that it might be worthwhile to try rerouting freight operations, but I don't think that's practical -- the shortest path around Hinckley would probably be to the west side of town (and it would be somewhat impractical since there's a reservoir there due to a dam on the Grindstone River, which would require sizable bridges). So I'd rather just see NLX stay on the main line at this point.

[Updated to include 5b distance estimates.]
Last edited by mulad on January 21st, 2014, 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.

MNdible
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby MNdible » January 21st, 2014, 12:01 pm

Until I see evidence otherwise, Zip Rail is too much fairy dust to be elevated to the top of the heap. There's no ROW purchased, and for the project to make sense, it really needs to tie in to a larger big-buck HSR project that doesn't have much momentum itself (setting aside the 110mph routing on current trackage that everybody here loves to turn their nose up at).

talindsay
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby talindsay » January 21st, 2014, 1:31 pm

- Is the casino contributing to the capital to build NLX? My point is that, if the casino is not chipping in, they are the beneficiary and not the public.
My understanding has been that from the beginning the tribe was involved in this project as a partner, i.e., a funder, and not simply as a stakeholder. If I'm wrong, then I agree completely that the station shouldn't be place at the casino with additional public cost. I don't have documents at hand, but I recall the tribe committing to fund part of this project.

Tom H.
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby Tom H. » January 21st, 2014, 1:57 pm

Isn't a bit strange to allow a transportation project's routing to be altered if a benefitting private enterprise offers money for it? Seems like a dangerous, and potentially corrupt, precedent to be setting.

mattaudio
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby mattaudio » January 21st, 2014, 3:00 pm

At least it's not as sketchy as choosing a route to serve a private enterprise without any sort of funding. That's essentially what's bringing Bottineau to Target BP and SWLRT to UHG.

Although I'm not sure it's categorically dangerous: Back in the day, when TCRT was a private enterprise, they built streetcar extensions to serve their own subdivisions. In more recent times, the MTR does the same thing in Hong Kong.

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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby mulad » January 21st, 2014, 4:26 pm

The 2007 feasibility study suggested that a direct connection would increase ridership by 53% (from around 900k to 1.4 million), so if their ridership model is to be believed, it's a huge impact on the overall viability of the route. Having mulled it over ever since I wrote that 2012 streets.mn article, I think it's most likely that the casino folks provided some bogus numbers to the NLX study consultants -- perhaps by giving the traffic seen on the busiest day in the casino's existence rather than the average traffic seen in recent years, or something like that.

There's a new ridership evaluation going on in parallel with this Hinckley Loop study, so hopefully that will clarify things, though it's almost certain to include head-scratching results no matter what. Gasoline prices were assumed to be $1.50/gallon in 2007, but typically hover above $3.00/gal today, so that should provide a more robust base ridership figure without the route deviation to the casino. If the casino provided bogus figures in the past and more realistic numbers are used this time (and the model assumes that a shuttle service would be used anyway), I would expect the difference between the casino and non-casino routes to shrink (possibly even going negative if end-to-end travel time was affected too much).

But if the new ridership study has a wide gap between casino and non-casino routes -- particularly if the casino option is considered cost-effective and the non-casino option isn't -- I'd have to push for a casino connection again. Much like the SWLRT debate, if it comes down to whether it can be built at all, or if a casino connection would theoretically support more trains and higher speeds, it would have a spillover effect making the end-to-end service better too.

We're kind of stuck waiting for these studies to finish, though.

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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby RailBaronYarr » January 21st, 2014, 4:47 pm

Levinson did a good breakdown of what the probable demand for the casino by rail from the TC (or Duluth, I suppose): http://transportationist.org/2013/05/03/nlx_redux/

There really wouldn't be much of a transfer penalty for people getting off the train in downtown. As pointed out earlier, a relatively reliable train could be served by the casino shuttle on schedule with baggage handling covered (and coordinated into bell-hop service at the hotel itself). This stop would then be marginal on added cost - just the station on existing tracks - and marginal delay for those going to/from Duluth/TC. The casino still benefits as more people have access to their casino by alternate modes, they just have to run a few shuttles every day to handle them. Hinckley by itself wouldn't warrant a stop, to be sure, but having one is better than not for the locals.

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Nathan
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby Nathan » January 22nd, 2014, 11:13 am

Isn't a bit strange to allow a transportation project's routing to be altered if a benefitting private enterprise offers money for it? Seems like a dangerous, and potentially corrupt, precedent to be setting.
considering all of the dangerous and potentially corrupt things done to the native Americans to benefit America... probably not much of an argument.

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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby Anondson » January 24th, 2014, 9:11 am

Isn't a bit strange to allow a transportation project's routing to be altered if a benefitting private enterprise offers money for it? Seems like a dangerous, and potentially corrupt, precedent to be setting.
Hardly a precedent. More like right along with standard practice that we've allowed our politicians to conduct.

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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby David Greene » February 5th, 2014, 11:31 am

A question popped into my brain this morning. If NLX happens, could the North Shore Scenic Railroad provide service to Two Harbors and the resorts in-between? They already run multiple trains there on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. What would be the incremental cost of providing such a service? I wouldn't think the stops would need much more than a concrete slab though I do not know the federal regulations for passenger service.

Those staying at the resorts and visiting state parks and so on would obviously need to rent a car but I wonder how many families go to the resorts and just hang out there with trips into Duluth and Two Harbors?

talindsay
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby talindsay » February 5th, 2014, 11:38 am

It's a smart idea, for sure. But I wonder how much a line that exists for scenic tourist purposes could be made compatible with base transportation - I assume the cost is much higher for a scenic ride along the north shore than would be acceptable for a base transportation ticket.

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FISHMANPET
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby FISHMANPET » February 5th, 2014, 11:59 am

I just looked and a random 1 hour ride (Saturday May 3, 2014 12:30 PM, the Lakefront Zephyr) is $11 for adults and $7 for children. That doesn't seem like too much, I'd pay that for a roundtrip from Duluth on Friday and back Sunday evening.

Somebody could run coach service to see how much demand there is for such a thing. I think Duluth could easily attract car free tourists if the option was given.

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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby talindsay » February 5th, 2014, 12:16 pm

I just looked and a random 1 hour ride (Saturday May 3, 2014 12:30 PM, the Lakefront Zephyr) is $11 for adults and $7 for children. That doesn't seem like too much, I'd pay that for a roundtrip from Duluth on Friday and back Sunday evening.

Somebody could run coach service to see how much demand there is for such a thing. I think Duluth could easily attract car free tourists if the option was given.
That's great news. And yes, I think you're right. Central Duluth is actually quite compact and certainly doesn't require a car; with just a few options to get to major destinations outside the center it could totally be a car-free destination.

tabletop
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby tabletop » February 6th, 2014, 6:43 am

I agree as well and can say from experience that the only car needed in Duluth is the taxi to Superior to go to the Anchor Bar

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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby Southside » February 6th, 2014, 1:52 pm

I just looked and a random 1 hour ride (Saturday May 3, 2014 12:30 PM, the Lakefront Zephyr) is $11 for adults and $7 for children. That doesn't seem like too much, I'd pay that for a roundtrip from Duluth on Friday and back Sunday evening.

Somebody could run coach service to see how much demand there is for such a thing. I think Duluth could easily attract car free tourists if the option was given.
Jefferson Lines offers non-stop, car free trips from the Twin Cities to Duluth twice a day.

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FISHMANPET
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby FISHMANPET » February 6th, 2014, 1:53 pm

Yeah, to the sphincter of Duluth.

talindsay
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby talindsay » February 6th, 2014, 2:03 pm

I just looked and a random 1 hour ride (Saturday May 3, 2014 12:30 PM, the Lakefront Zephyr) is $11 for adults and $7 for children. That doesn't seem like too much, I'd pay that for a roundtrip from Duluth on Friday and back Sunday evening.

Somebody could run coach service to see how much demand there is for such a thing. I think Duluth could easily attract car free tourists if the option was given.
Jefferson Lines offers non-stop, car free trips from the Twin Cities to Duluth twice a day.
To clarify, fishmanpet was referring to demand for some sort of circulator along the North Shore, connecting the resorts and Two Harbors with central Duluth, which in combination with NLX could allow for tourist access to the region for a wider variety of visitor types than just NLX alone; he wasn't referring to the core Minneapolis to Duluth service.

mattaudio
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby mattaudio » February 6th, 2014, 2:38 pm

Yeah, to the sphincter of Duluth.
What more could you want? Plenty of free parking and no congestion! http://goo.gl/maps/yzhne

talindsay
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Re: Northern Lights Express

Postby talindsay » February 6th, 2014, 3:10 pm

You guys are so hard on that location, it's got everything a bus passenger needs: a DQ, an Erbert and Gerbert, both a CVS *AND* a Walgreens, a Napa auto parts...

Seriously, being dropped in West Duluth isn't the way to impress anybody with the city of Duluth. The downtown bus terminal would be much better, I wonder why they aren't just using that?


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