2014 MN House Election

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xandrex
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby xandrex » November 6th, 2014, 12:03 pm

phop wrote:
xandrex wrote:
phop wrote:Eh, if the new majority wants to play hardball on public transit, DFL can play hardball on rural infrastructure. The last bonding bill was full of rural pork projects, and that was with complete DFL control.
I hear angering rural voters is a great way to flip just-lost House seats from red from blue.
Well pandering sure didn't work.
The problem is that if the DFL wants the House back, that almost certainly means they're going to need to take back some rural seats (or continue flipping suburban metro districts). Based on the new maps, most GOP metro districts are fringe-y/exurban. They're just not going to be swayed by transit. Hell, some of them probably think of themselves as separate from the metro.

The DFL will absolutely need to make inroads in rural Minnesota. Fight against pork? Sure. But the last thing we need is some sort of budget or transportation impasse where the GOP can go out to rural constituents and say, "The Minneapolis liberals are more concerned about their boondoggle choo-choo in the city than repairing the crumbling infrastructure around the entire state."

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FISHMANPET
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby FISHMANPET » November 6th, 2014, 12:22 pm

Clearly we need more voters in Minneapolis. BUILD MORE HOUSING!

mattaudio
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby mattaudio » November 6th, 2014, 12:49 pm

xandrex wrote:than repairing the crumbling infrastructure around the entire state."
The problem is that whether it's the DFL or GOP, "repair crumbling roads and bridges" means expand and build new roads and bridges.

xandrex
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby xandrex » November 6th, 2014, 1:14 pm

mattaudio wrote:
xandrex wrote:than repairing the crumbling infrastructure around the entire state."
The problem is that whether it's the DFL or GOP, "repair crumbling roads and bridges" means expand and build new roads and bridges.
We have two choices:

-Reject rural Minnesota and see the GOP maintain power and put a stranglehold on all transit
OR
-At least pretend to listen to Greater Minnesota's interests to help usher more DFL support with the idea that, yes, we may have to support more roads in our very imperfect system, but also have a chance to get transit support.

This board (for obvious reasons) has a very metro mindset, but metro ideas don't play out in the rest of the state.

Pick your poison.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby mulad » November 6th, 2014, 3:41 pm

I did an aggregate count of the votes for the MN House election this morning, and came up with 49.3% voting DFL versus 50.0% voting Republican, and 0.7% other. The system of dividing up a state into districts tends to amplify the overall trend of any election -- There could be a vast swing in number of seats to either party even if there was just a 45/55 split by vote percentage.

There wasn't a whole lot of third-party participation this time around, but I kind of miss that -- in the districts where they ran, third-party candidates got between 3 and 14% of the vote, which is well beyond the DFL/R split. There were 8 districts where the DFL didn't even field a candidate, vs. 1 for the Republicans.

Anyway, I guess I don't want people to read too much into a race that's statistically indistinguishable from flipping a coin on a windy day. There are significant regional differences, but it's really important to realize that most areas are just leaning one way or another and are not binary liberal or conservative. And heck, a lot of people really are just flipping a coin in their heads or going in with a "throw the bums out" mentality -- the (seemingly) equal and opposite force of politics as usual.

I would just rather see politicians explain what they care about and not just follow polling information, particularly when there are vacuous questions like "Do you support X?" when there's typically a whole universe of possible answers rather than just "yes" or "no".

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby xandrex » November 6th, 2014, 4:10 pm

mulad wrote:I did an aggregate count of the votes for the MN House election this morning, and came up with 49.3% voting DFL versus 50.0% voting Republican, and 0.7% other. The system of dividing up a state into districts tends to amplify the overall trend of any election -- There could be a vast swing in number of seats to either party even if there was just a 45/55 split by vote percentage.

...

Anyway, I guess I don't want people to read too much into a race that's statistically indistinguishable from flipping a coin on a windy day. There are significant regional differences, but it's really important to realize that most areas are just leaning one way or another and are not binary liberal or conservative. And heck, a lot of people really are just flipping a coin in their heads or going in with a "throw the bums out" mentality -- the (seemingly) equal and opposite force of politics as usual.
One problem the DFL has by being the urban party: Its districts are much more packed with liberals than "conservative" districts, which makes for a less efficient distribution of votes throughout the state. A poli sci professor I had back at the U once said the ideal distribution is to have a district that's 50 percent + 1. Three districts might have a combined total of 180 people with 90 DFLers and 90 GOPers, but if District 1 is 40 DFL/20 GOP, and Districts 2 and 3 is 25 DFL/35 GOP, you've got GOP winning 2/3 of races.

Distribution will be a new issue we'll see as the metro turns blue.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby mullen » November 7th, 2014, 1:17 pm

i really don't think it's a big deal. house swings back and forth from one party to the other. midterm election, dem president, lower turnout in midterms.

i wouldn't be surprised to see this turn back in '16.

and the dfl had a two-year window to pass meaningful transporation legislation with full control and chose to kick the can. so i have no sympathy on that issue.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » November 7th, 2014, 1:56 pm

No sympathy for DFL politicians, yeah I'm in full agreement there, but what about for the transit dependent and working poor that NEED more transit funding? Surely you can't be that callous.

It's time for a voter referendum on transit funding. Let's get a .5% sales tax increase on the ballot for each county in the metro. It would likely pass in Hennepin & Ramsey, not sure about the suburban counties (CWADS). It would settle the issue for the foreseeable future, and no politicians would be personally blamed for its passage. It would be the will of the voters.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby xandrex » November 19th, 2014, 5:36 pm

One incoming GOP member says of the new Senate office building:
"If there's a way to turn it into a parking ramp, I think that would be good," he said. "But I'm not really sure what else can be done at this point. The Legislature and governor — you know, the Democrats — unwisely in my view decided to build it, and it's now being built."
Great news for transit!

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FISHMANPET
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby FISHMANPET » November 19th, 2014, 5:55 pm

That office building was apparently really disliked by everyone. I mean, if you could point to a single tangible thing that the GOP used to defeat the DFL, that office building is gotta at least be in the running.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby xandrex » November 20th, 2014, 8:40 am

FISHMANPET wrote:That office building was apparently really disliked by everyone. I mean, if you could point to a single tangible thing that the GOP used to defeat the DFL, that office building is gotta at least be in the running.
Certainly an issue for the DFL (even if the logic building the office was sound enough), but it's somewhere between hilarious and scary that this guy's first thought is, "Wouldn't it be great if that was a parking ramp?" The entire Capitol complex is flush with 'em...are there really complaints of a parking crunch?

I know, I know...preaching to the choir.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby David Greene » November 20th, 2014, 1:23 pm

xandrex wrote:Certainly an issue for the DFL (even if the logic building the office was sound enough), but it's somewhere between hilarious and scary that this guy's first thought is, "Wouldn't it be great if that was a parking ramp?" The entire Capitol complex is flush with 'em...are there really complaints of a parking crunch?
Actually, there are. A non-lobbyist visitor has a hell of a time finding parking. All of the meters nearby are generally full all day. I've driven several blocks away in all directions and not found anything. I'm not saying we need more parking there, far from it, especially with the Green Line. I don't visit the capitol as much as I used to, but when I do, I visit with the Green Line.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby mattaudio » November 20th, 2014, 1:24 pm

Sounds like the meters and ramps aren't charging enough during session to guarantee last-space availability.

xandrex
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby xandrex » November 20th, 2014, 1:30 pm

David Greene wrote:
xandrex wrote:Certainly an issue for the DFL (even if the logic building the office was sound enough), but it's somewhere between hilarious and scary that this guy's first thought is, "Wouldn't it be great if that was a parking ramp?" The entire Capitol complex is flush with 'em...are there really complaints of a parking crunch?
Actually, there are. A non-lobbyist visitor has a hell of a time finding parking. All of the meters nearby are generally full all day. I've driven several blocks away in all directions and not found anything. I'm not saying we need more parking there, far from it, especially with the Green Line. I don't visit the capitol as much as I used to, but when I do, I visit with the Green Line.
Hmm. I wasn't aware. Thanks for that.

That kind of surprises me, though, mostly because I remember parking there one day during business hours a few years back on Cedar right near MLK Blvd. And it wasn't the only open spot...by far.

I imagine this guy isn't talking about non-lobbyist visitor parking though. He's a representative now, I assume he gets a reserved parking spot (or access to ramp, at least).

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby Snelbian » November 20th, 2014, 1:35 pm

I usually just park in the Sears wasteland.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby David Greene » November 20th, 2014, 1:40 pm

Snelbian wrote:I usually just park in the Sears wasteland.
You're technically not allowed to do that. You have to have a permit and AFAIK only "official" visitors can get them.

There's plenty of parking there, it's just reserved for a very small number of people. That's what needs to change, not a new ramp.
xandrex wrote:I remember parking there one day during business hours a few years back on Cedar right near MLK Blvd. And it wasn't the only open spot...by far.
It's very hit-or-miss. I used to park at the 50 cent/hr meters on University/MLK but if you go on a day when something big happens, good luck. All you need is a hearing on a bill that some largish group cares about, and there are rather a lot of those kinds of bills.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » December 19th, 2014, 9:58 am

http://www.startribune.com/politics/sta ... 99311.html

I smell a special election this summer/fall if Rep. Wagenius follows in the footsteps of Linda Berglin - another longtime Minneapolis DFL'er who in 2011 was deposed from her chairship and did not enjoy being in the minority party. At 74 years old and now wielding near-zero influence, I've gotta believe Ms. Wagenius is going to start thinking about how she could better spend her time. If she doesn't step down mid-term, you can bank on her not running again in 2016.

Matt, are you ready? ;)

mattaudio
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby mattaudio » December 19th, 2014, 10:51 am

Are you talking about another Matt who has previously run for House, and who works in 63B?

I've heard she won't be running again in 2016. Which is why it's so strange that the House GOP would be total asses about this to her.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » December 19th, 2014, 10:57 am

I ran for State Senate, boyee!


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