2014 MN House Election

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beykite
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby beykite » October 9th, 2014, 4:38 pm

grant1simons2 wrote:The Yvonne folks are just quieter than these Kirk S ones. We get mail EVERY SINGLE DAY about why Yvonne is awful and it's just hateful twisted words about lies about how she hates kids and will destroy our school system. Ugh. I'm sorry. I just can't have Kirko back. Especially since he lives down the road from me
Get out there and campaign! I spent 22 years growing up in that district (in fact if you live by Kirk I most likely lived just a few blocks away from you...) I'd hate to see it go back to Red. But driving down 101 is a constant barrage of Kirk signs :cry:

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » October 9th, 2014, 4:53 pm

MNdible wrote:Looking ahead, does anybody think that there will be a DFL challenger to Sen. Jeff Hayden (62) in light of his recent unfortunate entanglements?
As a constituent, I certainly hope so. I've heard nothing but "meh" about the guy from DFL insider friends (I'm like 1/4 insider...maybe). I was super uncomfortable with the way he just ascended to the throne in a uber-low turnout special election in 2011 when Berglin stepped down.

This district (the heart* of the DFL) deserves a strong willed, outspoken progressive leader. Jeff Hayden ain't it.

*perhaps the organizational/spiritual heart. The financial heart lies to the west and south.

grant1simons2
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby grant1simons2 » October 9th, 2014, 5:17 pm

beykite wrote:
grant1simons2 wrote:The Yvonne folks are just quieter than these Kirk S ones. We get mail EVERY SINGLE DAY about why Yvonne is awful and it's just hateful twisted words about lies about how she hates kids and will destroy our school system. Ugh. I'm sorry. I just can't have Kirko back. Especially since he lives down the road from me
Get out there and campaign! I spent 22 years growing up in that district (in fact if you live by Kirk I most likely lived just a few blocks away from you...) I'd hate to see it go back to Red. But driving down 101 is a constant barrage of Kirk signs :cry:
Oh trust me I am. And you probably do haha, you know what I've noticed though? The people who live next to the roads are mostly Republicans. Take duck lake tr for example. Or even valley view. We're the house with the solar panels and the Yvonne sign

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » October 9th, 2014, 6:57 pm

Apparently some national democratic group thinks they have a chance to flip these 3 outstate seats from red to blue: http://blogs.mprnews.org/capitol-view/2 ... districts/

It notes those aren't the only races in MN they might fund, but the three announced are a surprise. I'd rather see the money spent on defending close seats than making a play to pick up new ones in a midterm. A presidential year would be the time to flip St. Cloud area & the like.

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » October 13th, 2014, 9:03 am

MinnPost on the 56B rematch between DFL Rep. Will Morgan and GOP former Rep. Roz Peterson: http://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy ... ord-issues

This one is definitely a bellwether for control of the 2nd-ring suburbs. If Will Morgan holds or increases his margin from 2012 (just 170 votes), that's a really good sign. The DFL will have a really good shot at ending GOP Sen. Dan Hall's tenure in 2016.

QuietBlue
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby QuietBlue » October 13th, 2014, 2:18 pm

I live in 51A, which borders 56B to the east, and I see far more Masin (DFL incumbent) signs around than Todd-Harlin ones (GOP challenger), plus I've received more Masin mailers as well. In the past, it used to be more balanced. Maybe the political winds are shifting, maybe it's a lack of enthusiasm like the Minnpost article suggests, or maybe it's not representative of anything. I'm guessing it is a combination of the first two, though.

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » October 28th, 2014, 11:58 am

It's looking pretty grim up north, but the DFL seems to currently have a lock on the 2nd-ring suburbs: http://www.minnpost.com/data/2014/10/on ... sota-house

Just looking at the results of the 2012 Presidential election in those 2nd-ring burbs shows that they are quite Democratic leaning. Unless turnout is just beyond abysmal, the DFL should hold every single one of its suburban seats. Meanwhile in greater MN, Romney won quite a few house districts that are represented by Democrats...and for many of them, that's going to change. If you have any friends or family living in those outstate house districts, now would be the time to remind them to vote next Tuesday (or early!)

EDIT: So I guess Strib is going to make endorsements in 9 house races they deem worthy of their attention, namely those where there is no incumbent. Kinda wacky so far: http://www.startribune.com/opinion/edit ... 13082.html They went with the DFL'er in 34B Maple Grove (Kurt Zellers' seat) and a GOP'er in 44B Minnetonka (retiring DFLer John Benson's seat), suggesting that each of these races would switch parties. In reality, the likelihood of that happening in the same election is pretty slim. Here's hoping Jon Applebaum pulls through in 44B.

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » October 31st, 2014, 11:07 am

Here's the other two parts of Strib's endorsements for open House seats in the metro:

46B, 53B, 55A: http://www.startribune.com/opinion/edit ... 55662.html

56A, 58A, 64B: http://www.startribune.com/opinion/edit ... 02662.html

It's not a real shocker that they went with the DFL'er in the race to replace retiring Mike Beard (notorious anti-transit guy) in Shakopee. I didn't realize just how many opportunities the DFL still had for pickups in the outer suburbs. It will be interesting to see if any of those seats actually change parties.

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » November 4th, 2014, 10:21 pm

Selcer/Stensrud heading to a recount, Selcer (DFL) up by 36 votes: http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/ ... rictid=449

Other close suburban races are going DFL, but by much slimmer margins than 2012.
Will Morgan (DFL), who won by the slimmest of margins in 2012, got totally creamed in Burnsville/56B. That's unfortunate, but he was the only DFL seat lost in the metro. DFL could still get completely savaged in Greater MN.

EDIT: It's not looking good in Greater MN. Say goodbye to increased transit funding

xandrex
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby xandrex » November 4th, 2014, 11:50 pm

Currently a tie. GOP ahead in likelies. House is gone, goodbye transit funding.

David Greene
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby David Greene » November 4th, 2014, 11:55 pm

Yep. Dammit DFL, when will you learn that *not* addressing problems in order to "save" seats is not a winning strategy!

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby David Greene » November 5th, 2014, 12:11 am

Better transit is now officially dead, at least for the next two years.

Silophant
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby Silophant » November 5th, 2014, 7:44 am

I, for one, am thrilled to learn that the state government will be shutting down again next summer. :cry:

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » November 5th, 2014, 8:17 am

So who wants to start a campaign to increase transit funding ONLY in Hennepin County? It seems like a big metro-wide effort is probably dead for now. I feel like if it was just the one county, it might be easier to get the votes. Realistically, it would probably have to be Hennepin & Ramsey, otherwise you'd risk having St. Paul legislators vote against it :roll:

For any increased transportation funding, even roads-only, the DFL might have to make some major concessions on some other policy to get the GOP votes. Scary thought.

QuietBlue
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby QuietBlue » November 5th, 2014, 8:52 am

Silophant wrote:I, for one, am thrilled to learn that the state government will be shutting down again next summer. :cry:
I'm not so sure about that -- I think the Republicans paid for that in the 2012 election when they tried it (not that it was the only issue in play, but it contributed).

xandrex
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby xandrex » November 5th, 2014, 9:06 am

The more I think about the House race, the more I wonder if it was an inevitability. Democrats were defending seats during what was most certainly a wave year (especially so in our state because of the amendments that riled up liberals). It was a wave year for Republicans, so all they had to do was hammer on "one party rule in St. Paul" and play up the fact that the House was "too focused on the metro" and it almost seems obvious they'd sweep into power.

It certainly bodes poorly for transportation funding (the DFL should have seen this coming and done something, but I suppose they aren't all part of the pro-transit alliance). Daudt seems to want to work on transportation funding (for "roads and bridges," of course), but perhaps as part of a compromise, some transit funding can be sought as well.

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » November 5th, 2014, 9:12 am

With the budget looking pretty heathly, a shutdown is extremely unlikely. It's not like the DFL had an agenda for 2015-6 anyways, other than a few little things they didn't get to in 2013-4. Other than transportation, I can't think of one major policy initiative that the DFL was clear on accomplishing this coming session. I've heard from Minneapolis uber-liberals about some GLBT stuff like banning conversion therapy and maybe some trans* stuff, but again, not major policy issues that matter to the vast majority of the electorate. There's some child protection stuff and sex offender stuff that I know nothing of, but sounds semi-important enough to maybe find bipartisan support for fixing.

One bright spot of a GOP-led house is the possibility of a better/broader medical MJ bill. We know the Senate is interested. It might come down to who the Speaker is and what the committee assignments are, though I think that's more likely in 2016...2015 is too soon to make changes (according to Dayton)

EDIT: Regarding transit, it does seem like increased sales tax is unlikely. However, the state is still supposed to contribute 10% towards Southwest LRT. That's gonna be a serious battle. Regardless of the transitway/taxes stuff, I really hope we can get that extra operating $ for Metro Transit...Repubs are always saying they support buses over rail...until it comes time to actually pay for it.

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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby David Greene » November 5th, 2014, 11:17 am

twincitizen wrote:So who wants to start a campaign to increase transit funding ONLY in Hennepin County?
How? They need state approval to raise a sales tax. They could rely on property taxes but that would be extremely unpopular.
twincitizen wrote:For any increased transportation funding, even roads-only, the DFL might have to make some major concessions on some other policy to get the GOP votes. Scary thought.
I could actually see a way forward if a transit sales tax were limited to the five existing CTIB counties. The election clearly demonstrates that the DFL is much stronger in the suburbs now so in some ways making suburban DFLers vote for a sales tax increase would be appealing to the GOP and the DFL might be feeling strong enough there to let them do it.

Adding a referendum requirement would sweeten the deal but I would not take it. Referendum battles are extremely exhausting and take valuable resources from winning actual legislative seats. Since the Republicans will never accept a gas tax increase of any kind, perhaps some extra bonding for roads could be traded.

At least four Republicans in the House would have to vote for a deal and likely more than that. And that's assuming every DFLer votes for it, which is unlikely. It's theoretically doable but it's a really heavy lift. Given the lack of interest in doing anything when they had full control, I just don't see the DFL taking the time and effort to get it done. In their minds, waiting two years for an all-out push in a favorable election cycle is likely more appealing.

All that said, I'm not sure it's all that bad to wait two years. We basically have the funding to do what we planned to do in the near-term (but see below) and I honestly am not all that interested in money to expand METRO beyond Southwest and Bottineau right now. The Gold line can wait forever as far as I'm concerned. The Orange line is more appealing but maybe with some funding constraints we'll actually take a second look and plan something better for the future.

The big hit will be to aBRT and upgraded urban bus service. That's a painfuil lost opportunity.
xandrex wrote:It certainly bodes poorly for transportation funding (the DFL should have seen this coming and done something, but I suppose they aren't all part of the pro-transit alliance).
The urban-suburban/rural divide is even sharper than it has been in the past. I'm pretty sure that transportation didn't happen last year because "the metro would get too much." Honestly, it would have been a fight to do transportation with a DFL majority, though not a public one.
twincitizen wrote:However, the state is still supposed to contribute 10% towards Southwest LRT. That's gonna be a serious battle.
I'm guessing CTIB and/or the Met Council have contingency plans to fill that gap and will be repaid (if necessary) when the DFL can gather the votes some other year. There's always money available if you are motivated to do something. It just cuts into something else. Federal matching money is a pretty strong motivator.
twincitizen wrote: Regardless of the transitway/taxes stuff, I really hope we can get that extra operating $ for Metro Transit...Repubs are always saying they support buses over rail...until it comes time to actually pay for it.
Indeed. Don't expect any GOP epiphany on transit funding, even if it is only for buses.

MNdible
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby MNdible » November 5th, 2014, 1:02 pm

The new house map is pretty shocking. I don't know if there's a single Democratic house seat now that isn't part of the Metro, the Iron Range, or a district that's dominated by a significant outstate regional center.

David Schultz's prediction now seems very prescient. The comments point to how deeply the metro DFLer's have their heads buried in the sand on the reality outstate.

EDIT: MPR's got the map that will make your jaw drop.

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » November 5th, 2014, 1:29 pm

Count me among those who thought Schultz was wrong. The GOP friggin swept outstate MN (non Iron Range). The DFL held onto every single Metro area seat but one (Will Morgan - Burnsville). I wonder how much of that was normal/national wave (and undoing the 2012 wave) and how much of it was specific retaliation at DFLers who voted for marriage equality...

Looking to the future, the DFL will continue to have a tough time in all of those outstate races they just lost, but I think there are perhaps 3 more suburban seats that can be picked up in the near term (and even more in the future as a younger, more diverse set of suburban residents come of age).


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