2014 MN House Election

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David Greene
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby David Greene » November 5th, 2014, 1:41 pm

twincitizen wrote:Count me among those who thought Schultz was wrong. The GOP friggin swept outstate MN (non Iron Range). The DFL held onto every single Metro area seat but one (Will Morgan - Burnsville). I wonder how much of that was normal/national wave (and undoing the 2012 wave) and how much of it was specific retaliation at DFLers who voted for marriage equality...

Looking to the future, the DFL will continue to have a tough time in all of those outstate races they just lost, but I think there are perhaps 3 more suburban seats that can be picked up in the near term (and even more in the future as a younger, more diverse set of suburban residents come of age).
I am pretty hopeful about the St. Cloud districts, especially knowing the organizing going on up there. 2016 is going to be a very interesting race.

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » November 5th, 2014, 1:53 pm

DFL needs 5 seats to tie, 6 to take the lead in 2016. Despite Presidential year turnout buoying Democrats, many of the seats we won in 2012 & lost in 2014 were VERY close wins in 2012, and a lot of that was specifically tied to frustration with the MNGOP's antics in 2011-2012. Several of the DFL's losses yesterday were by over 1,000 votes in what had been razor thin victories in 2012.

Regarding St. Cloud, there's really just one district (14B) that's favorable to the DFL, and we just narrowly lost it. The rest contain far too much rural area to be in play.

2016 will obviously be a pickup year for the DFL. I can't see them losing any more seats. It's a question of can they get 6. Without that specific anger towards the MNGOP like there was in 2012, I'm not sure they can. There just aren't enough seats in play.

I'm not sure "wait two more years for a transit/transpo funding push" is the right move, since that DFL majority may not come, and the DFL is not likely to increase their margin in the State Senate. Remember, the DFL did *really* well in 2012...I don't think they can increase (or even hold) that Senate margin.

I think the pragmatic thing to do might be to compromise with the GOP-led house. What do they want? What are they absolutely not willing to budge on? Gas taxes? Transit sales tax? What is on the table and what is not on the table? Is there a way we could reform the Met Council (without gutting it) that will appease the GOP and increase appetite for more transit funding?

MNdible
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby MNdible » November 5th, 2014, 2:11 pm

My gut instinct is that the gay marriage piece is just one small part of a much larger agenda that aligned well with the concerns of Urban/Suburban liberal/moderate voters, but didn't resonate at all with rural voters -- even some of those who typically think of themselves as Democrats. Economic development, environmental issues, transportation planning, etc. To reduce it to gay marriage (and Twincitizen isn't the first or last to suggest this) is an oversimplification.

Even something like minimum wage doesn't necessarily translate -- $10/hour may seem completely reasonable in the metro, where most wages already exceed the current minimum wage, but may seem like a real reach in outstate areas where wages and cost of living are lower.

If you spend any time outstate, you'll understand that things are just a lot different out there. And in the past, it may have been that the strength of Unions and the trust in the role of good government was enough to paper over those differences, but not anymore.

mattaudio
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby mattaudio » November 5th, 2014, 2:29 pm

True, I think this is really a cultural and lifestyle difference, not any one specific issue. I spend a lot of time outstate, and it's fascinating how different things get in a hurry. But I keep wondering how the DFL has a hold on the Iron Range (and by massive margins - Carly Melin had something like a 50 pt lead). It's still an outstate area with different issues, and I don't think the labor tie to the DFL could be enough to explain it.

David Greene
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby David Greene » November 5th, 2014, 3:17 pm

The Range is going to become a serious problem for the DFL sooner or later unless they change the way they do things. We can only prop up unsustainable industries for so long. I'm afraid the DFL is going to ravage the landscape with ridicuous and destructive mining schemes and then they're going to lose.

exiled_antipodean
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby exiled_antipodean » November 5th, 2014, 5:48 pm

I think we are seeing a transformation in the "natural" pattern of representation in the MN legislature. The DFL used to be the party of the poorer inner city, Iron Range and coalition of outstate farmers and interests. GOP combined wealthier city districts with suburbs and some rural areas.

We're seeing the consolidation of the DFL into a more urban party. In 2004 through 2008 they picked up a lot of suburban and Rochester seats for the first time, and basically they've held those seats. Consider that Rochester had not voted for a DFL (or Liberal in the non-partisan) rep in decades before 2004. Now Rochester is reliably if narrowly DFL in the two core seats.

Losing by 1000 votes out of 20,000 is reversible in 2016, it only requires getting 500 voters to switch. Not easy, but not impossible.

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Nick
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby Nick » November 5th, 2014, 6:34 pm

Shameless plug: https://streets.mn/2014/09/09/the-politi ... on-growth/

There are some fun ye olde districk maps in there.

Also, I would generally agree with the sentiment that it may be as good a time as any to strike out on our own with transportation funding--a 1% sales tax in Hennepin and Ramsey, or something. Don't even bother with the CWADS.

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » November 5th, 2014, 11:58 pm

http://www.startribune.com/politics/sta ... 16121.html
When the Legislature reconvenes in January, 72 of the 134 seats will be filled by Republicans, a clear majority. The freshman class of newly elected members will have 21 Republicans and only five DFLers, who won open seats. Republicans lost not one House seat.

Nearly all of the DFLers who lost came from districts that went Republican in previous elections. Many voters in those areas had supported Republican Tom Emmer over Dayton four years ago and chose Republican Mitt Romney over President Obama in 2012.
21 freshman repubs sounds like a nightmare, even (especially?) for their own Speaker. That's nearly 1/3 of their caucus. We'll see how that plays out. Will Kurt Daudt prevail as Speaker? Who will chair the Transportation Committee(s)?

mplsjaromir
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby mplsjaromir » November 6th, 2014, 9:44 am

On to the 2016 midterms, where Republicans will be defending 24 senate seats to the Democrats 10, in a high-turnout Presidential election year. 8-)

David Greene
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby David Greene » November 6th, 2014, 9:53 am

Nick wrote:SAlso, I would generally agree with the sentiment that it may be as good a time as any to strike out on our own with transportation funding--a 1% sales tax in Hennepin and Ramsey, or something. Don't even bother with the CWADS.
Again, the counties or cities cannot raise a sales tax without state approval.

twincitizen
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby twincitizen » November 6th, 2014, 10:03 am

David, you keep saying that as if we aren't aware. It may not be implicitly stated in our brief message board comments, but rest assured that Nick and I (and other transpo finance geeks here) are well aware that MN counties/cities cannot tax themselves without a state law change.

We are offering it up as an alternative to the MoveMN push for a 7-county tax increase (or even CTIB 5-county), as that idea is likely out the window now. I think allowing 1 or 2 counties to tax themselves is an entirely different question. MoveMN is probably dead anyways, as a gas tax increase is less likely than ever (and it wasn't a slam dunk under total DFL control). It's time to start working on an alternative suggestion and change the conversation.

Here's my compromise: take Ramsey and Hennepin County out of LGA completely (both disbursments and tax collections), but allow them to increase sales taxes as they see fit.


Also, here's some words from the next Speaker of the House: http://www.minnpost.com/politics-policy ... ou-anymore

mattaudio
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby mattaudio » November 6th, 2014, 10:07 am

Clearly the DFL can do okay in larger regional centers. But I think the dynamic needs to change in smaller towns, 10-30k population, that they are "urban" in a positive way. I tried to explain this to some folks in New Ulm when I trolled their discussion about where a new high school could be located. They insisted their town was rural in character... maybe in culture, but not in the built environment. Those are two separate things. 90% of their town is an urban grid.

David Greene
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby David Greene » November 6th, 2014, 10:18 am

twincitizen wrote:We are offering it up as an alternative to the MoveMN push for a 7-county tax increase (or even CTIB 5-county), as that idea is likely out the window now. I think allowing 1 or 2 counties to tax themselves is an entirely different question. MoveMN is probably dead anyways, as a gas tax increase is less likely than ever (and it wasn't a slam dunk under total DFL control). It's time to start working on an alternative suggestion and change the conversation.

Here's my compromise: take Ramsey and Hennepin County out of LGA completely (both disbursments and tax collections), but allow them to increase sales taxes as they see fit.
Thanks for clarifying. It was not at all clear from Nick's message that this is what you guys are thinking about.

I agree that a sales tax increase in Hennepin/Ramsey is more doable, but working out the governance would be a nightmare. Do we then have 3-4 boards making transit funding decisions? Met Council, CTIB, Hennepin, Ramsey? How would that work? I also think doing something like this would piss off many suburban DFL reps in the other metro counties as well as many of those counties' board members. There are in fact many people in those counties who want better transit. The DFL would essentially be saying that the core cities have no relationship to the suburbs, exactly opposite of what they've been trying to build and exactly opposite of the way we need to be planning (regionally).

I don't see how you could remove Hennepin from the LGA system. Everyone knows Minneapolis/Hennepin funds a huge part of LGA, even if they say the opposite in public. It is not in the interest of anyone other than Minneapolis to exit LGA as you propose.

xandrex
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby xandrex » November 6th, 2014, 11:00 am

twincitizen wrote:Here's my compromise: take Ramsey and Hennepin County out of LGA completely (both disbursments and tax collections), but allow them to increase sales taxes as they see fit.
Seems pretty much DOA. You're removing approximately 1/3 of the state's population (and almost certainly more than that in sales tax collection). What non-Hennepin/Ramsey County rep would support that? It seems like an extreme option in terms of possibility.
David Greene wrote:The DFL would essentially be saying that the core cities have no relationship to the suburbs, exactly opposite of what they've been trying to build and exactly opposite of the way we need to be planning (regionally).
Agreed here. It would almost certainly exacerbate the divide that brought us the howling over Thrive MSP 2040.

Viktor Vaughn
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby Viktor Vaughn » November 6th, 2014, 11:01 am

Nick wrote:Also, I would generally agree with the sentiment that it may be as good a time as any to strike out on our own with transportation funding--a 1% sales tax in Hennepin and Ramsey, or something. Don't even bother with the CWADS.
If only we didn't commit thirty years of mpls' .5% general sales tax and the 3% hospitality taxes. Now we have the highest downtown food and beverage tax in the nation and a very high general sales tax. I've previously discounted arguments that sales tax differences have a significant effect on consumer behavoir, but there is a tipping point. I'm not really sure if we can take on a 1% Hennepin County sales tax without hitting a tipping point where Minneapolis (and particularly downtown) taxes stand out as gouge to be avoided.

It's almost as if spending choices have an opportunity cost...

mattaudio
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby mattaudio » November 6th, 2014, 11:05 am

True. Too bad Dayton was more about spending our 0.5% citywide sales tax on a stadium rather than equivalent spending to build upwards of 10 aBRT lines.

hoffm83n
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby hoffm83n » November 6th, 2014, 11:37 am

Today on the daily circuit, Kurt Daudt repeated a claim by Jeff Johnson that you could replace all bridges in MN that are in poor condition for the price of the SW line. Also argued that money should go to roads instead of public transit because the light rail isn't self sufficient. Yeah...roads need more money, but these arguments just suck.

phop
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby phop » November 6th, 2014, 11:44 am

Eh, if the new majority wants to play hardball on public transit, DFL can play hardball on rural infrastructure. The last bonding bill was full of rural pork projects, and that was with complete DFL control.

xandrex
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby xandrex » November 6th, 2014, 11:54 am

phop wrote:Eh, if the new majority wants to play hardball on public transit, DFL can play hardball on rural infrastructure. The last bonding bill was full of rural pork projects, and that was with complete DFL control.
I hear angering rural voters is a great way to flip just-lost House seats from red from blue.

phop
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Re: 2014 MN House Election

Postby phop » November 6th, 2014, 11:55 am

xandrex wrote:
phop wrote:Eh, if the new majority wants to play hardball on public transit, DFL can play hardball on rural infrastructure. The last bonding bill was full of rural pork projects, and that was with complete DFL control.
I hear angering rural voters is a great way to flip just-lost House seats from red from blue.
Well pandering sure didn't work.


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