Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

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twincitizen
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby twincitizen » October 20th, 2017, 10:33 am

twincitizen wrote:
October 12th, 2017, 7:19 pm
As the election draws down to its final month, anyone want to share their Top 3 ranking, as well as your prediction for how the vote will shake out?

It's pretty incredible that a month from the election, I have no idea who among Hodges, Hoch, and Frey will come out on top. Dehn and Levy-Pounds will rank 4 and 5, respectively. I feel like I have a better chance of correctly predicting the winners of all 13 council races than guessing the winner of the mayoral race.
To answer my own question:
1. Hodges
2. Frey
3. Dehn
(2 and 3 could change places over the next 2 weeks)

As several others have said, the sheen has definitely worn off Frey and I'm far less ok with him than I was earlier in the campaign (hence considering ranking Dehn above him), but Frey will remain in my top 3 as a bulwark against Hoch. If Hodges is eliminated, I still want my vote to count, and I easily prefer Frey over Hoch.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby PhilmerPhil » October 20th, 2017, 11:15 am

That's my exact thinking. For a while I thought Hoch wasn't a serious candidate, and his small showing at the convention confirmed that.

But since the convention, lawn signs are significantly dominated by Hoch, I'm getting big glossy mailers, and seeing his ads pop up online. He's got the support of many older, wealthier, whiter homeowners (high turnout population). I also wouldn't be surprised to see him get the Strib endorsement. For low information voters, I fear that Hoch's visibility will put him in the number one position for the "Not Betsy" crowd.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby MattW » October 28th, 2017, 6:45 pm


Biggydrink
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby Biggydrink » October 28th, 2017, 7:52 pm

Hoch is their #2, and they opt not to choose a #3.

Honestly the fact that they chose Hoch as their second choice makes me a lot less confident in the whole thing. They seem super into working with local businesses and "compromise", which I guess means compromise between progressive ideas and business interests or something.

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Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby amiller92 » October 29th, 2017, 6:45 am

Their main beef with the mayor is she said no to a subsidy for their owners soccer franchise. Um. Okay.




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twincitizen
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby twincitizen » November 8th, 2017, 8:29 am

No one's posted here in over a week? OK...

Huge anti-Hodges wave last night. Her chances of picking up enough 2nd/3rd-choice votes are not looking good.
I ranked Hodges first, Frey second. I'm 100% fine with Jacob Frey as mayor, but am not sure I'll ever understand the depth of the anti-Hodges wave that happened. In terms of first-choice votes, Frey has a big lead, with Hoch, Hodges, Dehn essentially tied for 2nd and Levy-Pounds not far behind. Levy-Pounds' first-choice totals are simply astounding. Her national (or at least regional) name recognition almost certainly came into play here, as she was not doing as much traditional campaigning as the rest. I don't think anyone expected her to be that close to the pack, especially since so many of the BLM/NOC-aligned folks were supporting Dehn. For an incumbent, Hodges' first-choice showing is extremely weak. So weak that I'm barely hoping that she pulls through, as she has clearly lost the confidence of voters across the city.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby minntransplant » November 8th, 2017, 8:53 am

twincitizen wrote:
November 8th, 2017, 8:29 am
No one's posted here in over a week? OK...

Huge anti-Hodges wave last night. Her chances of picking up enough 2nd/3rd-choice votes are not looking good.
I ranked Hodges first, Frey second. I'm 100% fine with Jacob Frey as mayor, but am not sure I'll ever understand the depth of the anti-Hodges wave that happened. In terms of first-choice votes, Frey has a big lead, with Hoch, Hodges, Dehn essentially tied for 2nd and Levy-Pounds not far behind. Levy-Pounds' first-choice totals are simply astounding. Her national (or at least regional) name recognition almost certainly came into play here, as she was not doing as much traditional campaigning as the rest. I don't think anyone expected her to be that close to the pack, especially since so many of the BLM/NOC-aligned folks were supporting Dehn. For an incumbent, Hodges' first-choice showing is extremely weak. So weak that I'm barely hoping that she pulls through, as she has clearly lost the confidence of voters across the city.
I think it was, unfortunately, people responding to her personality and longing for a more upbeat, showy mayor. A lot of my friends faulted Betsy for not having "vision" and were angered over how she handled Harteau. I thought Betsy did a fine job and had some impressive accomplishments as mayor, but too many people formed a negative impression of her and it stuck.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby VacantLuxuries » November 8th, 2017, 9:16 am

So we're functionally replacing Hodges with a first term councilmember who has basically the same policy positions, but is perceived to be more likable for reasons many of Hodges detractors struggle to put into words. That's not troubling at all...

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby LakeCharles » November 8th, 2017, 9:28 am

Is Frey a lock to win this? I don't have enough experience, but it seems like depending on who the 2nd and 3rd votes go to, any of Frey, Hoch or Hodges could win. By my count, adding up all 1st, 2nd and 3rd for Dehn and Levy-Pounds, they still come up shy of 50%.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby gpete » November 8th, 2017, 9:31 am

Yep, the criticisms I heard about Betsy were mostly about her "style" and "lack of presence," not policy matters. Some tough situations were "mishandled." People seemed to want a more showy, charismatic man (nostalgia for RT?). I really don't see Frey doing any better than her on those tough issues (maybe worse, because he seems to try to please everyone).

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby kirby96 » November 8th, 2017, 9:39 am

Presumably, since they are the 3 most 'similar' candidates, I'm guessing the 2nds and 3rds are relatively evenly divided (Hodges 2nds and 3rds are mostly among Frey and Hoch, etc.). If that's the case, it's likely Frey.

The interesting ranked choice situation is the case of Ginger Jentzen. Although she probably doesn't have enough nominal 2nds and 3rds, if she had just a few more it would be impossible to guess at this point.

The Green candidate in that ward will be eliminated, and if the vast majority of Jentzen 2nd was cast behind the green, she would get all those pushing her close to 50+1. But then Bildsoe gets eliminated. If every Fletcher 2nd was behind Bildsoe, he'd win, but what if a sizeable chunk of his 2nds are behind Jentzen? Intriguing. Lots of handwringing and what-ifs going on right now.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby LakeCharles » November 8th, 2017, 9:46 am

kirby96 wrote:
November 8th, 2017, 9:39 am
Presumably, since they are the 3 most 'similar' candidates, I'm guessing the 2nds and 3rds are relatively evenly divided (Hodges 2nds and 3rds are mostly among Frey and Hoch, etc.). If that's the case, it's likely Frey.
But it will matter most who the 2nds and 3rds were behind Nekima and Dehn, because those two will be the first eliminated. The people who put Frey first will never have their 2nd counted, because he won't be eliminated until it is over.

kirby96
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby kirby96 » November 8th, 2017, 9:51 am

LakeCharles wrote:
November 8th, 2017, 9:46 am
kirby96 wrote:
November 8th, 2017, 9:39 am
Presumably, since they are the 3 most 'similar' candidates, I'm guessing the 2nds and 3rds are relatively evenly divided (Hodges 2nds and 3rds are mostly among Frey and Hoch, etc.). If that's the case, it's likely Frey.
But it will matter most who the 2nds and 3rds were behind Nekima and Dehn, because those two will be the first eliminated. The people who put Frey first will never have their 2nd counted, because he won't be eliminated until it is over.
That's true, but again, I guess I'm assuming there's not a huge bias from Dehn and Levy-Pounds 2nds and 3rds towards Hodges or Frey (although there probably is a bias away from Hoch), and while I don't have the numbers in front of me, I don't think it is likely that Hodges or Frey pick up enough Dehn or Nekima 2nds to put them over the top because of what I said originally: I'm guessing most of their 2nds and 3rds come from other #1's in the top 3.

Maybe a better way to put it is that of the first 3, Frey is most likely, Hodges probably 2nd, and Hoch 3rd.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby David Greene » November 8th, 2017, 9:53 am

I know a number of people who ranked Hodges third. It's not looking good for her, but it's not over yet.

Probably gonna be Frey, possibly Hodges. I agree with kirby96 that people voting for Dehn and Pounds were unlikely to rank Hoch. Exhausted ballots could become a central issue, which would be a scandal for the city and its implementation of RCV.

With a weak mayor system and the current state of the city, Frey had better be ready to do some tough work around policing, something neither one talked about much at all.

The showmanship around the Damond shooting in the last few days was disgusting. Frey and Palmisano should be ashamed. Go all out for the white victim, forget about the Black guy.

kirby96
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby kirby96 » November 8th, 2017, 9:57 am

...and thinking about it more, I'm even going to hedge my prediction on Hoch 3rd. Could very likely be Dehn ultimately in 3rd.

EDIT: nerding out a bit, but it's pretty fun to think about. I see it possibly going like this:

Pounds Eliminated, significantly helps Dehn. If it helps him enough, Hoch is eliminated.

Hoch votes help Frey and Hodges, and are probably enough to push Frey over and push Hodges firmly into 2nd.

If Pounds elimination does not help Dehn enough, they just divvy up either Hodges or Hochs votes and again Frey wins.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby amiller92 » November 8th, 2017, 10:03 am

kirby96 wrote:
November 8th, 2017, 9:39 am
Presumably, since they are the 3 most 'similar' candidates, I'm guessing the 2nds and 3rds are relatively evenly divided (Hodges 2nds and 3rds are mostly among Frey and Hoch, etc.).
I don't think that's right. Totally unscientific, but I'm not aware of any actual data available, but I saw a lot of people putting Hodges, Dehn and NLP (in various orders) on their ballots together.

Still, Hodges will need a huge advantage among NLP and Dehn second and thirds to have any chance and it's quite likely to be Frey.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby kirby96 » November 8th, 2017, 10:07 am

amiller92 wrote:
November 8th, 2017, 10:03 am
I don't think that's right. Totally unscientific, but I'm not aware of any actual data available, but I saw a lot of people putting Hodges, Dehn and NLP (in various orders) on their ballots together.
I guess I wouldn't be shocked about that. People that want Pounds or Dehn, but where Hodges benefits somewhat from an incumbent edge isn't too far-fetched...

(I would describe that as the "I like Pounds/Dehn, but if not, let's stick with the status quo")

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby LakeCharles » November 8th, 2017, 10:08 am

That was my ballot, for some anecdata. I don't like Frey or Hoch, so Hodges would be better than them.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby David Greene » November 8th, 2017, 10:15 am

That was my ballot too. Our Revolution pushed for Dehn, Levy-Pounds, then Hodges. Of course Our Revolution represents a fraction of the voting population. The high turnout would seem to indicate good things for them but probably not enough to overcome the "average" voter who I'm guessing was likely to rank Frey in there somewhere.

Hoch spent big bucks and it paid off. Kind of depressing, that.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby amiller92 » November 8th, 2017, 10:17 am

The question really is how do NLP's seconds break? I'd think Hodges and Dehn both do well, but how well relative to each others makes the difference as to which is eliminated next, or whether Hoch is.


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