Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

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xandrex
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Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby xandrex » November 14th, 2016, 9:07 pm

I can't say this is unexpected: Nekima Levy-Pounds will run for mayor in 2017. http://www.startribune.com/civil-rights ... 401176375/

Kind of wondering what her coalition will look like. My general thought is she can probably capture a chunk of the population that's left of/more social justice-oriented than Hodges, but is it really big enough to overcome the general population who honestly are probably closer to center-leftist?

Mod note: There's a separate thread to discuss the City Council and Park Board races: https://forum.streets.mn/viewtopic.php?f=25&t=4155

mplsjaromir
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby mplsjaromir » November 15th, 2016, 7:50 am

She is a neo-liberal stooge, but most are in the Minneapolis City government.

twincitizen
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby twincitizen » November 15th, 2016, 8:28 am

Pounds says she's running as a DFLer, but isn't sure if she'll run for the party endorsement. I mean, I can see why you wouldn't get involved in the party rigmarole. It's both stupid (at the city level) and expensive to gear up a campaign by March (precinct caucus) / June (city convention), for an election that isn't until November. However, she'll be left in the cold if she doesn't compete and Hodges walks away with the DFL nomination in a blowout (over whoever else runs). The only way not going for the nomination works positively for Levy-Pounds is if at least one other prominent mayoral candidate does the same, helping to make the DFL nomination appear less relevant in this race.

That said, I think her campaign advisers will probably urge her to run for the DFL nomination, especially since no one really knows how weakened the support for Hodges actually is. This is still several months away, but if a few prominent Black community leaders were to back Hodges over Levy-Pounds, it's probably over for NLP.

I do think the NLP announcement will keep a lot of people out of the race. For example, my money is now on Frey not running. Not that he and NLP occupy the same political space, but I just get the feeling he'd rather stay out of the fray ;)

xandrex
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby xandrex » November 15th, 2016, 10:22 am

twincitizen wrote:I do think the NLP announcement will keep a lot of people out of the race. For example, my money is now on Frey not running. Not that he and NLP occupy the same political space, but I just get the feeling he'd rather stay out of the fray ;)
I had the same feeling about Frey. He would seem to work better in a head-to-head matchup against Hodges where the two of them suck up most of the oxygen in the race (not unlike Hodges/Andrew). That seems harder to do if NLP gains any amount of traction. I think her name recognition alone is going to guarantee her plenty of attention.

David Greene
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby David Greene » November 15th, 2016, 12:13 pm

A lot changed since the presidential election. DFLers are going to rally around the mayor and city council to keep Minneapolis a sanctuary city. I'll probably vote for Levy-Pounds because she represents a voice that isn't being heard but I'm pretty skeptical she can win in this environment. Maybe things change. A year is a long time.

But I think Levy-Pounds running is a really good thing. Hodges needs a challenge from the left. There are very hard times ahead and we need our city leaders to be steadfast in opposition. A Levy-Pounds campaign will strengthen the feeling of whomever is in city hall that the people are behind them in their opposition.

mplsjaromir
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby mplsjaromir » November 15th, 2016, 1:33 pm

NLP I see not a left winger. Her goal is to destroy unions, specifically teacher unions. A pure charlatan.

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Nick
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby Nick » November 15th, 2016, 3:14 pm

We better get pizza at the convention again this year

QuietBlue
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby QuietBlue » November 16th, 2016, 9:21 am

xandrex wrote:I had the same feeling about Frey. He would seem to work better in a head-to-head matchup against Hodges where the two of them suck up most of the oxygen in the race (not unlike Hodges/Andrew). That seems harder to do if NLP gains any amount of traction. I think her name recognition alone is going to guarantee her plenty of attention.
To me, having NLP in the race seems like it would make it easier for Frey, rather than harder, as some of Hodges' base of support would be weakened.

But we won't really know how things will shake out until Captain Jack Sparrow announces his candidacy. :)

twincitizen
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby twincitizen » November 16th, 2016, 9:41 am

With ranked choice voting, the more challengers there are, the stronger the position of the incumbent becomes. Hodges has been what, boring at worst? She has not acted with malice or done anything to actually deserve rejection. A head-to-head against NLP (not including your pirates and Bob Agains and so on) seems like the most challenging for Hodges (though I still think she wins). The more you split the "not Hodges" vote, the easier her path to victory.

masstrlk67
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby masstrlk67 » November 16th, 2016, 9:52 am

David Greene wrote:DFLers are going to rally around the mayor and city council to keep Minneapolis a sanctuary city.
I don't follow. Is the idea that maintaining sanctuary city status between now and '17 will earn Hodges enough goodwill to carry her through the election? I would think NLP would be the best choice for any kind of guaranteed opposition to police action, immigration or otherwise.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby David Greene » November 16th, 2016, 9:54 am

masstrlk67 wrote:
David Greene wrote:DFLers are going to rally around the mayor and city council to keep Minneapolis a sanctuary city.
I don't follow. Is the idea that maintaining sanctuary city status between now and '17 will earn Hodges enough goodwill to carry her through the election? I would think NLP would be the best choice for any kind of guaranteed opposition to police action, immigration or otherwise.
Under duress, people tend to rally to their leaders. Hence the tendency to re-elect presidents during wartime, etc. If she's putting up a good fight against Trump, she'll win.

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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby EOst » November 16th, 2016, 10:57 am

twincitizen wrote:She has not acted with malice or done anything to actually deserve rejection.
Then again, there are few who are really strongly for her, either, or who have a strong sense of what she has personally accomplished as mayor. That's a pretty vulnerable position to be in as a first-term incumbent. I think you're also underestimating the damage that her handling of the Jamar Clark incident and the fight-for-15 referendum did with younger voters and POC. The Facebook echo-chamber could very easily turn her defeat into a cause celèbre.

I think NLP's path to victory is basically this: consolidate younger voters and a significant share of POC (I imagine Cano will jump on board soon), hold her own in the second rank, and hope that another candidate will split the "older white pragmatist" vote enough to cripple Hodges. I don't see Frey's path, but then I also don't know what he would run on; his council run was very personal/localized against the distant and ineffective Hofstede, so maybe he could pull it off again. But his brand is still a little too anodyne and earnest to pull off a real "vision" argument.

twincitizen
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby twincitizen » November 16th, 2016, 12:20 pm

EOst wrote:I think you're also underestimating the damage that her handling of the Jamar Clark incident and the fight-for-15 referendum did with younger voters and POC. The Facebook echo-chamber could very easily turn her defeat into a cause celèbre.

I think NLP's path to victory is basically this: consolidate younger voters and a significant share of POC (I imagine Cano will jump on board soon), hold her own in the second rank, and hope that another candidate will split the "older white pragmatist" vote enough to cripple Hodges.
I don't dispute the potential Facebook echo chamber effect, but will they vote in large enough numbers to make a difference? History suggests otherwise. Wards 11-12-13 are where the election will be won or lost. Voter turnout for city elections in wards 4 & 5 (North) and ward 2 and even 10 is really, really bad. At the end of the day, way too many people are completely obvious that city elections even exist.

Quoting myself from another thread:
twincitizen wrote:The low turnout in odd-year municipal elections cannot be ignored. Mpls barely cracked 33% turnout in 2013 with a hotly contested mayoral election and a bunch of open seats. Turnout was a paltry 20% in 2009 when Rybak was uncontested.

2013 turnout in Minneapolis: http://vote.minneapolismn.gov/www/group ... 126706.pdf
2014 turnout in Minneapolis: http://vote.minneapolismn.gov/www/group ... 134510.pdf

In many wards, 2014 turnout was nearly double that of 2013. And that's with 2014 being a lower turnout year statewide vs. 2013 being "above average" compared to recent municipal elections.

EOst
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby EOst » November 16th, 2016, 12:37 pm

Honestly, who knows?

The Trump administration is likely to take a very different stance toward the BLM movement than the Obama administration has, and GOP elected officials throughout the country are probably going to react to future outbreaks with harsher tactics than they would have used before. A year from now, it's not inconceivable that her early leadership in the BLM movement--especially in the interplay with a larger anti-Trump reaction--could be a powerful tool to nationalize the mayoral election and boost turnout among unreliable voters. Hodges has already signaled that she'll use Trump's deportation force/anti-sanctuary city push to do the same.

I'm not saying it will work, or that all of the above will come to pass. But I don't think Hodges is a sure thing.

amiller92
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby amiller92 » November 16th, 2016, 12:58 pm

EOst wrote:The Trump administration is likely to take a very different stance toward the BLM movement than the Obama administration has, and GOP elected officials throughout the country are probably going to react to future outbreaks with harsher tactics than they would have used before.
Straying off topic, but this has me wondering whether there have been significant outbreaks of BLM protests in areas with GOP mayors and city councils.

Which isn't to say that there aren't Dems who would take the opportunity.

EOst
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby EOst » November 16th, 2016, 5:35 pm

Ferguson has a white GOP mayor (the city is 68% black).

Of course, there just aren't many large cities with GOP mayors anymore. There are plenty of states with GOP governors, however, and they're the ones I'd be more worried about. It's governors who can call in the National Guard.

amiller92
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral / City Council Elections 2017

Postby amiller92 » November 17th, 2016, 10:30 am

For some reason I thought he was a white Dem, but you're right.

grant1simons2
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby grant1simons2 » December 2nd, 2016, 11:31 am

Heard last night that another North Minneapolis face is seriously considering running. If they do, I'm very confident they'll win.

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Silophant
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby Silophant » December 2nd, 2016, 12:22 pm

Big 24 hours for hinted-at secrets on the forum.

bivaly
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Re: Minneapolis Mayoral Election 2017

Postby bivaly » December 2nd, 2016, 1:31 pm

I assume he's talking about Rep. Ray Dehn.


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