Minnesota Governor Election 2018

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EOst
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby EOst » August 3rd, 2017, 8:28 am

You really think the reason Terri Bonoff lost in a district with an average income of $75k--the top quintile nationwide--is that she didn't run on "soak the rich"?

amiller92
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby amiller92 » August 3rd, 2017, 8:32 am

MNdible wrote:
August 2nd, 2017, 12:36 pm
House and Senate districts are determined by population, not by acre.
Right, which is what Grow gets wrong. He's assuming that majorities in the metro can't mean majorities in the legislature. Which is wrong.

The DFL's ability to win legislative majorities depends on swing suburban districts and the Iron Range, not on connecting with rural voters elsewhere.

Which isn't to say that it would be beneficial to do that too.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby mattaudio » August 3rd, 2017, 8:33 am

I don't see that as a liability if messaged properly. Dayton didn't soak people with incomes of $75,000, he raised taxes on marginal income above $250,000. And that's not even close to the top 1%.

amiller92
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby amiller92 » August 3rd, 2017, 8:35 am

Tiller wrote:
August 2nd, 2017, 11:17 pm
How did Dayton campaign when he ran? He governed very progressively (relative to the time period he governed in) (despite being rich), though governing != campaigning.
Dayton isn't really a model. He's always been an outlier in a lot of ways.
I want a greater mn progressive for the general election, though the only (?) candidate thus far that might fit that bill is Tina Liebling.
You don't want Tina Liebling as your nominee.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby mplsjaromir » August 3rd, 2017, 8:40 am

mattaudio wrote:
August 3rd, 2017, 8:33 am
I don't see that as a liability if messaged properly. Dayton didn't soak people with incomes of $75,000, he raised taxes on marginal income above $250,000. And that's not even close to the top 1%.
Precisely.

Going after people who primary income is from securities dividends does not equal going after two income households bringing in $80K. If you're making $80K and you identify with Wall Street bankers you are no way going to vote for democrats anyway.

amiller92
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby amiller92 » August 3rd, 2017, 8:46 am

Maybe we could re-animated William Jennings Bryan.

EOst
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby EOst » August 3rd, 2017, 8:52 am

mattaudio wrote:
August 3rd, 2017, 8:33 am
I don't see that as a liability if messaged properly. Dayton didn't soak people with incomes of $75,000, he raised taxes on marginal income above $250,000. And that's not even close to the top 1%.
But we can't pay for single-payer healthcare or free public college with taxes on $250k+ earners. Even states with huge Democratic/progressive majorities have been unable to reach consensus on messaging or implementing a single-payer plan.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby mplsjaromir » August 3rd, 2017, 9:24 am

EOst wrote:
August 3rd, 2017, 8:52 am
But we can't pay for single-payer healthcare or free public college with taxes on $250k+ earners.
I'm not so sure I agree 100% with your policework there Lou..

Recognizing passive income under earned income rates could easily pay for free public college. Heck, a modest slimming of military expenditures could pay for that.

Single payer is tougher, but the fact remains that the US spends the greatest % of its GDP on healthcare of anyone in the world. The high costs are truly because of fraud, waste and abuse. There is the political collateral damage that honest, hardworking healthcare industry administrators will lose their jobs in a system that works.

The tide is turning, the GOP have no ideas when it comes to healthcare, and the centrists rallying cry of : MORE INSURER COMPETITION INCENTIVIZED WITH TAX CUTS FOR ENTRY INTO UNCOMPETITIVE MARKETS rings hallow.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby MNdible » August 3rd, 2017, 9:35 am

I'll just toss out there that the assumption on this forum seems to be that the DFL has already lost all of the outstate voters, which isn't the case. There are a lot of districts out there that have gone consistently GOP, but maybe only by 10% margins or less, which means there are still 45% of voters or more in those districts who are still voting for DFL statewide candidates. So, if the DFL continues a metro-centric platform, there are a lot of voters out there still to be lost.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby amiller92 » August 3rd, 2017, 9:38 am

I took him to be talking about the state being able to raise the funds for free college and single payer. I think that would be a challenge.

The money is there at the federal level, but the votes to trim military spending and tax the rich might not be (i.e., technocratically it's reasonable, but politically it may not be doable).

In a way, it's funny that the current vocal left views Wall Street as untouchable (i.e., any association with it is disqualifying), when what we might really need is a political movement focused on shrinking military spending so we can provide things that actually benefit people instead.

amiller92
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby amiller92 » August 3rd, 2017, 9:39 am

MNdible wrote:
August 3rd, 2017, 9:35 am
So, if the DFL continues a metro-centric platform, there are a lot of voters out there still to be lost.
What's metro-centric about the DFL's platform and what does it need to add or remove to make it also appealing outside the metro?

And don't talk to me about carp.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby acs » August 3rd, 2017, 9:47 am

Mining, mass transit, farm regulations, MNSCU funding vs the U of M, DNR management... shall I go on?

EOst
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby EOst » August 3rd, 2017, 9:56 am

amiller92 wrote:
August 3rd, 2017, 9:38 am
I took him to be talking about the state being able to raise the funds for free college and single payer. I think that would be a challenge.

The money is there at the federal level, but the votes to trim military spending and tax the rich might not be (i.e., technocratically it's reasonable, but politically it may not be doable).
Yes.

The fundamental problem here is that while single-payer health insurance (or whatever) is popular as an abstract idea, it is markedly less so when opponents' attacks are factored in and when it's paired with concrete spending/taxing proposals. Health insurance is extremely complicated, people feel incredible anxiety about it, and the most negative effects of the status quo are largely abstracted away from most voters. How do you sell something that requires a significant tax increase on virtually all taxpayers? How does it interact with large union contracts, where health care (often more generous than a single-payer plan would be) is a hard-won bargaining chip? These are things that are extremely hard to summarize in a commercial or a debate.

Again, not one legislature in the US has managed to come to consensus on these details (and on how the majority would sell them). Do we really need to gamble on running to make Minnesota the first when our opponents' top priorities include abolishing public transit and the welfare state?

amiller92
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby amiller92 » August 3rd, 2017, 9:57 am

Protecting the environment is metro-centric? I don't think that's right, nor do I think you can ask the party to abandon a core value to appeal to rural voters.

I don't think many people are worked up about relative funding levels of our two higher ed systems (nor am I sure that really a metro/rural issue given how many of MNSCU's campuses are in the metro).

You're going to have to tell me what farm regulations means, as I'm definitely a metro guy.

Mass transit is certainly for the metro, but opposing it is even further skewing state spending toward rural areas that already disproportionately benefit from state funds.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Tiller » August 3rd, 2017, 9:58 am

Even if many parts of the DFL platform benefit both the metro and greater MN, even disproportionately benefiting greater MN, our messaging has to explicitly highlight how geographically-neutral policies like expanding access to healthcare will help greater MN (ie keeping rural hospitals open). We in general need to better develop our economic platform for the rest of the state.

The only two things I can think of off the top of my head that the DFL supports that helps greater MN would be expanding broadband access and whatever fiddling we've been in favor of for rural health care. I would add increasing road spending to that list, though raising the gas tax to pay for it prolly wins out in terms of perception, and in terms of actually helping, more roads doesn't exactly do that.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby MNdible » August 3rd, 2017, 10:07 am

Part of the problem is that Dayton has done a very poor job of advocating for the position that investments in the metro area are good for the entire state.

And rural people don't hate the environment. But in parts of the state where resource extraction is a big part of the economy, their interaction with an issue like "the environment" is necessarily a little less cut-and-dried. And the DFL has no idea about how to address this.

amiller92
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby amiller92 » August 3rd, 2017, 10:19 am

I don't think anyone has a good idea about how to compromise between "I'd like a job that's inherently polluting" and "we don't want you to pollute."

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby acs » August 3rd, 2017, 10:24 am

amiller92 wrote:
August 3rd, 2017, 10:19 am
I don't think anyone has a good idea about how to compromise between "I'd like a job that's inherently polluting" and "we don't want you to pollute."
If this is the majority view of the DFL, and I increasingly think it is, then the DFL will continue lose the Iron Range and quite possibly the state.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby David Greene » August 3rd, 2017, 10:39 am

amiller92 wrote:
August 3rd, 2017, 9:57 am
Mass transit is certainly for the metro, but opposing it is even further skewing state spending toward rural areas that already disproportionately benefit from state funds.
Transit is ALSO for Greater MN. Talk to the folks in St. Cloud who have been fighting hard for it. Or the older folks in far-flung rural counties. It's a mistake to assume we can't make transit a winning issue throughout the state. Yes, it's hard, but running away from transit is not going to get the DFL votes. It will lose them.

Again, messaging is important. I know some people disagree, but I still think there's a message about shifting expensive metro road money to Greater MN that will have appeal. It cuts against the metro/rural divide messaging of the GOP, explicitly advocating for a shift from metro to rural. I don't give a crap if Greater MN gets more state money in proportion to the metro, as long as it's going to things that advance the wellfare of the state. Slowing urban freeway expansion in favor of transit and directing some of that money to Greater MN does that in a significant way.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby David Greene » August 3rd, 2017, 10:46 am

Tiller wrote:
August 3rd, 2017, 9:58 am
I would add increasing road spending to that list, though raising the gas tax to pay for it prolly wins out in terms of perception, and in terms of actually helping, more roads doesn't exactly do that.
Here's one tack that might work, though it's risky because it could lose suburban votes:

- Keep gas tax where it is
- Slow metro freeway expansion (keep spot expansion and maintenance)
- Do more (a)BRT
- Shift money to rural road improvements

This takes the tax bogeyman off the table. Slowing metro freeway expansion appeals to environmentalists and core urban supporters, but could lose suburban voters. To counter that, talk about specific freeway projects that need to be done and/or emphasize transit expansion to allow people to *avoid* congestion. I recognize that this is a big lift.

Candidates can talk about a real investment in Greater MN roads, something the Republicans have not been able to deliver precisely because they hate the cities so much and don't want to give them anything (like increased transit funding).

Everybody understands at a gut level that you have to give a little to get a little. Don't talk about "uniting Minnesota" but rather specific tradeoffs that will be made to help various parts of the state get what they want.


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