Minnesota Governor Election 2018

[Didier]

Rick Nolan, eh.

http://www.twincities.com/2017/01/11/re ... -governor/

[VAStationDude]

He'd be better than every other announced candidate.

[twincitizen]

Are you really saying "it seems like he'd have a better chance of winning outstate votes", and not "he'd be a better governor"?

Without a strong 3rd party candidate in the race, Democrats retain a solid advantage in a statewide race. Don't forget how many Democrats and center-left independents stayed home or left the Presidential section blank in 2016. And the sole reason Tim Pawlenty was governor was because of strong center-left IP candidates in 02 and 06 taking sizable shares of the vote. Mark Dayton won handily in '14 (a very low turnout year by MN standards) with a diminished IP, who nominated a Libertarian candidate, and the IP is now a minor party. If Democrats nominate a good candidate and run a strong statewide campaign, I don't think it matters that much if the candidate themselves is from the metro or not. Democrats also have Klobuchar on the ballot in '18, and if she remains popular, that could also lift the Democratic ticket. I firmly believe the governorship in MN is Democrats race to lose (by nominating a really bad candidate or running a weak campaign)

Bottom line is I'd rather not nominate an old duffer who will turn 75 shortly after election. It's time Minnesota ends its place among states that have never had a female governor. Erin Murphy and Rebecca Otto probably both have a decent shot at doing so.

P.S. I'd rather see Nolan win another term in the 8th and retire in 2020 in what should be a Dem wave year. If he retires in 2018, there's a greater chance the seat turns red.

[mattaudio]

I firmly believe the governorship in MN is Democrats race to lose (by nominating a really bad candidate or running a weak campaign).

Democrats are quite experienced at this.

[QuietBlue]

After this past election, I don't know if the idea that Minnesota Democrats have a definite advantage in statewide races is as true anymore. They may still have one, but I think it's more tenuous as some of their traditional base of support outstate shifts towards the Republicans.

[mattaudio]

I still think it's true, for at least two reasons:
- I'm guessing the average metro blue district is heavier blue than the average red outstate district is red.
- The presidential race wasn't a good indicator of statewide favor, since plenty of progressives figured Hillary was a lock for MN's electoral votes and therefore voted for third party candidates.

[xandrex]

Nolan strikes me as an odd person to court as a gubernatorial candidate. Other than his first run, knocking out Chip Cravaack in 2012—a strong year for Dems—he's essentially muddled through the last two elections, winning by under 2 points.

[MNdible]

Bad person Brian Rice apparently recruited Nolan.

DFL activist Brian Rice wrote Nolan a long memo urging him to enter the race, said Nolan.

[fehler]

Nolan (or any DFLer) won't win the 8th if Otto is leading the DFL ticket. Nothing to lose.

[VAStationDude]

I like an old governor with no higher aspirations. Dayton and Jerry Brown in California have been pretty kick ass. Rice's involvement is discouraging

[twincitizen]

You're not wrong about Dayton and Brown in that regard, BUT...

I'd like to see Minnesota produce statewide politicians who could make a credible run for President in the future. Now clearly that won't be the case as soon as 2020*. But as one of the few solidly blue states not named New York, California, or Illinois, I believe a big new responsibility falls on Minnesota (and CO, WA, etc.) to produce statewide elected officials that can be future Presidential candidates (so Governors and US Senators, specifically). With the Democratic Party basically decimated in like 30-35 states, the future pool of non-Californians/NYers is very thin. And someone from like Rhode Island or Delaware probably isn't going to be President. On top of way too many Senate Dems being like 70+, IL & MA have Republican governors right now! Dems are in a real pickle for 2020 (and beyond if we don't fix this). I really think Democrats in MN (and WA, CO, etc.) need to step up and recognize their new responsibility to produce future Presidents.

I sincerely hope that our next Democratic governor DOES have Presidential ambition, AND will be young enough to run in 2024/28. On that note, I also kinda hope Al Franken decides to hang it up in 2020 and let a younger person take his place.



*sorry Amy, but your voice is too nails on a chalkboard to be electable

[phop]

How about Thissen?

[VAStationDude]

Jesus no. A milquetoast Minneapolis dfler would lose badly.

[phop]

Yet Mark Dayton is currently our governor.

[VAStationDude]

Dayton is the exact opposite of meek. He always says what's on his mind (sometimes to his own detriment).

We can't count on a serial drunk driver running for the gop nor can we run against Pawlenty's fiscal record. Trump is setting up to be a disaster but we can't bank on that. Running a weak urban dfler telegraphs the gop's campaign strategy.

[Didier]

In anyone else refusing on principal to click into the story about MyPillow guy denying that he's running for governor?

[lake_runner23]

Hey everyone,

First-time poster but have been lurking around reading for a while now. I am relatively new to MN politics but would love to ask why the lack of enthusiasm for Paul Thissen. In my (admittedly college-educated, Lyft-riding, yoga-ing, urban liberal) lens, Paul Thissen seems like he would be at the very least an interesting candidate for Governor.

I get the knock that he wasn't able to win back the majority in 2016 but in my view his work as Speaker was pretty significant (creation of MNSure, universal pre-K, legalizing gay marriage, DREAM Act). Similarly, I get the critique that he asked legislators in Greater Minnesota to take a tough vote which cost them seats (e.g., Joe Radinovich) and widened the urban-rural divide in MN.

However, when I look @ what has been happening in MN and across the country, I think the trend of the GOP consolidating rural voters and the increasing chasm by geography/education will only grow faster and I'm not sure that the time/effort trade-off of winning back those voters will be worth it. Thus, I wonder if instead of trying to win traditional DFL districts in the Iron Range/Greater Minnesota, the DFL should focus on (a) racking up the score in Minneapolis/St. Paul in state-wide races and winning suburban districts that previously seemed out of reach (like Eden Prairie and Lakeville were up until this election). In my mind, having a platform/candidate focus on popular left-leaning social issues coupled with policies to win over suburban moms (paid maternity leave, childcare tax credit, protecting public education)

Totally open to being challenged on this but for me, as a progressive urban liberal, I would certainly vote for Rick Nolan (or Tom Bakk, Collin Peterson, and even Tim Walz to a certain extent) over any Republican but my enthusiasm in terms of donating/volunteering would be fairly limited compared to a Paul Thissen (or Chris Coleman, Erin Murphy etc.).

Granted, I think someone like Don Ness would be a tremendous candidate that would energize greater Minnesota + urban liberals in a really powerful way.

[VAStationDude]

What good does winning most state wide elections do if the dfl is relegated to a permanent minority in the state house? I also believe the dfl is better for rural Minnesota than the gop and we need to govern as one state not as MSP vs outstate.

Paul Thissen is a boring failed speaker.

[EOst]

I don't have a problem with Thissen in particular, or any of the candidates. I suspect DFL chances in 2018 come down to who the GOP nominates more than who the DFL does.

One major thing to watch will be how Daudt responds to the more divisive bills that are inevitably going to be introduced this session: a local wage/sick leave preemption law, a voter ID law, abortion restrictions, anti-Sanctuary City laws, etc. The institutional pressures of the modern GOP would almost certainly force him to bring those up for a vote if they're introduced. A metro-area candidate may be able to weaponize those more effectively than someone like Nolan or Walz.

The strategy of running up votes in the metro, though, only works if you can count on the metro's votes. Look how that worked out for Angie Craig.

[lake_runner23]

That is totally fair on the point on the shortcomings of Angie Craig's strategy. It'll be interesting to see what the GOP does like you say in the next session.