Minnesota Governor Election 2018

[twincitizen]

Tina Smith not running: http://www.startribune.com/lt-gov-tina- ... ection=%2F

Nothing against Lt. Gov. Smith, but this is good news for the DFL as far as I'm concerned. Potentially opens a door for more candidates to jump in the race (anyone closely aligned/loyal to Dayton, other female candidates who were perhaps waiting on this decision, etc). Also opens the door for wealthy donors to start lining up behind the other announced candidates

[Silophant]

Walz is in.

[mattaudio]

He won CD1 by 0.7% last year (2548 votes) in the 2016 race where his seat was supposed to be "Safe Democratic" by most trackers. Does this present a higher or lower chance of party flip for CD1?

[QuietBlue]

A lot will depend on the candidate, but I could see CD1 flipping back to the Republicans if Walz runs for Governor. OTOH, if the Democrats pick up seats elsewhere, they can still come out ahead.

[xandrex]

If Walz wants to leave the House and run for governor, 2018 might well be the best shot the DFL has to hold his seat. Yeah, he nearly lost in a year that was, frankly, overwhelmingly successful for the GOP. In years like 2016, even safe seats can show close results (and CD1 isn’t really “safe” anyway). But 2018 is the midterm for a president who so far has proven himself to be incredibly unpopular. Dems could potentially ride a wave of dissatisfaction nationally to hold seats like Walz’s and at the same time take the governor’s mansion.

[Silophant]

That's​ basically my thought process. Either 2018 will be a Democratic wave year, which would probably carry MN-1 with it unless the Democratic candidate is remarkably bad, or it won't be, somehow, and a Democratic candidate for governor that's proven to draw outstate votes will be more important than the difference between a 39 seat or a 40 seat Republican majority in the US House.

As far as the 2016 results go, you can look at it two ways. You can either see it as Walz barely winning a district pundits had called safe for him, or you can see it as Walz managing to win a district that went very heavily for Trump (the only other race on every ballot in the district)

[twincitizen]

Ramsey County Commissioner Blake Huffman (GOP - Shoreview) is running for Governor. I don't think he'll get the nomination, but then again Jeff Johnson managed to do so just 4 years ago. I don't truly know where he's at politically, but on the surface he seems like a moderate. I haven't read anything about him being difficult to work with or throwing bombs in the press against the majority on the board. From being a Shoreview City Councilor and Ramsey County Commissioner, he seems to at least see the value "good government" and isn't a "burn it all down" kind of guy...which is probably bad news for him in seeking the GOP nom. He would be a really strong challenger should he get it though. 2018 is shaping up to be a Dem wave year, so the DFL will have to try pretty hard to screw it up. Huffman is still definitely a threat, and might play better than Daudt and Stanek among metro moderate GOP primary voters. I wouldn't count him out on getting the GOP nomination.

[Tiller]

Dayton Holds Highest Ever Approval Rating As Term Comes To An End
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2017/05/0 ... al-rating/

The Star Tribune reports that 62 percent of voters approved of the Democratic governor’s job performance. It’s his highest rating since Dayton took office in 2011, and also exceeds his previous ratings during a single term in the U.S. Senate from 2000 to 2006.

Sounds like good news for the DFL next year.

[VacantLuxuries]

I hope it holds after he's baited into vetoing budgets written to be vetoed...

[Silophant]

Passing the currently proposed budget would be arguably worse than a state shutdown. The DFL has tried compromising in an odd year to win the next even year election. Didn't work.

[LakeCharles]

Jeff Johnson is running again:

http://blogs.mprnews.org/capitol-view/2 ... nor-again/

So far there are 7 Republicans and 6 Democrats

[MNdible]

From Blois Olson's Morning Take, for your consideration:

DIVIDE: A protest at the DFL’s annual Humprhey-Mondale dinner that included a number of gubernatorial candidates over immigrant drivers licenses was cancelled late Friday. The move that shows DFL chair Ken Martin still holds the power and sway to unite the party. Martin’s attempt to keep the party together despite a growing gap between the immigrant/environmental activists and the job/labor activists will be a major challenge in 2018 with a crowded gubernatorial election. The interesting dynamic is the role of DNC member Javier Morillo-Alicea the SEIU 26 leader who helped organize the protest. Morillo is seen by many as a major power broker in much of the pull of the DFL to the left just as has happened in Minneapolis. DFLers fear that if Minneapolis is evidence, that the state party, and candidates for statewide office will be pulled to the left, focusing on issues that mainstream Minnesotans don’t care about and therefore giving Republican’s an advantage in 2018.

[xandrex]

And a rejoinder from Bluestem Prairie: http://www.bluestemprairie.com/bluestem ... vide-.html

[MNdible]

Just to be clear, is this post claiming that the values held by the left wing of the DFL party are somehow representative of the views of a majority of Minnesotans?

"Republican Lite" is apparently the new name for anybody that doesn't buy into the full-throated Progressive agenda, in case you missed it.

[mplsjaromir]

Morillo was big supporter of Hillary Clinton, so this stance is quite contradictory. He is an opportunist at best. He just wanted to make hay.

I would say most Minnesotans would not like being told their labor isn't worth $15 an hour. Centrist orthodoxy is what is most out of step.

[at40man]

Ramsey County Commissioner Blake Huffman (GOP - Shoreview) is running for Governor. I don't think he'll get the nomination, but then again Jeff Johnson managed to do so just 4 years ago. I don't truly know where he's at politically, but on the surface he seems like a moderate. I haven't read anything about him being difficult to work with or throwing bombs in the press against the majority on the board. From being a Shoreview City Councilor and Ramsey County Commissioner, he seems to at least see the value "good government" and isn't a "burn it all down" kind of guy...which is probably bad news for him in seeking the GOP nom. He would be a really strong challenger should he get it though. 2018 is shaping up to be a Dem wave year, so the DFL will have to try pretty hard to screw it up. Huffman is still definitely a threat, and might play better than Daudt and Stanek among metro moderate GOP primary voters. I wouldn't count him out on getting the GOP nomination.

This is Minnesota, though. Republicans voted for Marco Rubio, who is not a "burn it down" type of guy.

[xandrex]

Just to be clear, is this post claiming that the values held by the left wing of the DFL party are somehow representative of the views of a majority of Minnesotans?

"Republican Lite" is apparently the new name for anybody that doesn't buy into the full-throated Progressive agenda, in case you missed it.

Not making a judgement here. Merely sharing a take I saw shortly after Blois posted his own.

[David Greene]

Just to be clear, is this post claiming that the values held by the left wing of the DFL party are somehow representative of the views of a majority of Minnesotans?

No, it's claiming that a few very specific positions are held by a majority of Minnesotans. And I guess if one believes the polling data presented, one must come to the same conclusion.

It's kind of a stretch to extrapolate that to, "OMG those crazy intolerant liberals oppose everyone that doesn't agree with them 100%."

To be sure, I know some liberals who are completely inflexible and I have told them that repeatedly. Javier is not one of those. He's clear on his values, but he's also ruthlessly pragmatic. Ken Martin and the DFL "establishment" (whatever that means) are afraid not because of litmus tests but because they're out of step with the DFL base. Martin was hardly universally praised by the base when he was elected. Whether that longstanding shift of the base translates to statewide electoral victory, we shall see.

[Vagueperson]

Another DFLer jumps in.

http://www.twincities.com/2017/06/15/fo ... 1497536748

[MNdible]

I'll stick this here. Doug Grow on the urban-rural divide, and the DFL's increasingly small tent.