Minnesota Governor Election 2018

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twincitizen
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby twincitizen » November 28th, 2017, 2:48 pm

The race for the GOP nomination just got a lot more interesting. 2-term Woodbury Mayor Mary Giuliani Stephens filed to run for Governor as a Republican. Surprised me a little as I had kind of assumed she was an independent or even centrist Dem.
http://www.startribune.com/woodbury-may ... 460571733/

Not only is she the only woman running for the GOP nomination, I'd bet she'll run closer to the center than any of the other candidates. I don't know how much traction she'll get in today's rural-centric, macho-trumpism styled GOP, but I wouldn't be surprised if she skips the endorsement race and goes straight to the primary. I wonder if some in the MNGOP (and/or big donors) saw the writing on the wall with all of their current lame-ass candidates, given the current national political climate, etc. and reached out to recruit a woman and moderate. Assuming she's not a total loon, this could give the Democrats real problems next year, despite Dems being favored to win all statewide races again. I think Dems would clean house against a Matt Dean or Jeff Johnson, assuming the Dem nominee is Tim Walz or Erin Murphy.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby David Greene » November 28th, 2017, 2:56 pm

I'm not sure it would be as easy as you think against Dean or Johnson. There are a lot of angry Strib commentors.

Suppose she did win. How would she govern? Would she be open to concerns of the cities? I have no idea what she's done in Woodbury. How has she been on transportation and land use? Has she been a consensus-builder, or my way or the highway?

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby EOst » November 28th, 2017, 4:03 pm

She wrote this decent transit editorial in 2015: http://www.twincities.com/2015/05/11/ma ... w-transit/

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Tiller
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Tiller » January 15th, 2018, 5:25 pm

An email I just got:
We have an exciting update on the campaign: Today Our Revolution MN endorsed Rebecca for Governor!

Our Rev MN LogoRebecca was the top vote-getter with 53% of the vote of Our Revolution MN members. Our Revolution MN gave Rebecca's questionnaire a 91% favorable rating.

Our Revolution MN is an organization inspired by Bernie Sanders' progressive presidential campaign. This endorsement will be a very significant factor in the February 6 precinct caucuses and the DFL endorsement for Governor. Bernie received 61% of the vote and 125,635 total votes in the precinct caucuses.

Rebecca and Our Revolution MN support the progressive agenda Bernie Sanders championed in his campaign: Single Payer health care, fighting climate change, Fight for $15, and two years free community college.

Our Revolution MN will be helping turn out Sanders supporters and other progressives in the February 6 DFL precinct caucuses.

One reason Bernie did so well in Minnesota (and in so many other states with precinct caucuses) is because he understood the importance of earning the support of individual caucus-goers and training up leaders at the local level. Please help Rebecca repeat Bernie's grassroots success by voting in the February 6 gubernatorial straw poll and electing caucus delegates by attending one of our upcoming precinct caucus trainings near you.
Per Our Revolution MN's Facebook page, Murphy and Liebling were both also directly endorsed. (?)

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Tiller
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Tiller » January 29th, 2018, 8:07 pm

http://m.startribune.com/star-tribune-m ... 470291373/

*Alarm Bells*
The Star Tribune's first election year poll is complete and, all things considered, it was a good series of results for Minnesota Republicans. President Donald Trump's job approval came in at 45 percent. His 2016 Minnesota tally: 44.9 percent. Which means after one of the most tumultuous first years in recent presidential history, if Trump lost supporters here, he must have gained an equal number. He was especially strong in the suburbs and in greater Minnesota, which could mean help for Republicans like U.S. Rep. Jason Lewis and GOP state lawmakers in the suburbs where Trump's support remains strong.
In fact, the poll suggests Trump is running much stronger here than even a traditionally Republican state like Georgia. According to a recent Atlanta Journal-Constitution poll, Trump has a 36.7 percent job approval in the land of peaches and Coca-Cola, while a whopping 58.7 percent disapprove.
The Republican tax overhaul that passed late last year also received decent marks from poll respondents, with equal numbers for and against the plan.

In the bluest states, by contrast, Trump's approval, the generic congressional ballot and issues like the tax law suggest large advantages for Democrats. Not here.

Is Minnesota moving into Republican territory before our very eyes?

One DFL politician was flabbergasted by the results, to the point of discounting them altogether.

twincitizen
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby twincitizen » January 29th, 2018, 10:02 pm

Um, it could be that Minnesota has been under Democratic control for 8 years (including a couple years of total control), whereas the vast majority of swing states have been under Republican control since 2010 or longer (including several years of total Republican control). Democrats in Minnesota have had a lot more policy wins than other states in recent years. Democrats in other states are hungrier and have more to gain this year. I'm just saying...that could be a factor in what's happening here. After 8 years of Dayton, I'm sure there are folks itching for "change" out there.

I am fairly confident that the following things are advantages for the DFL candidate for Governor this year:
*support for legalization of marijuana. This is worth between 2 and 4 percentage points, based on the actual results for statewide offices in 2014. Lots of people voted for candidates running on single-issue party platforms. Hard to believe, but it is true. Look up the results for AG, SoS, etc. in 2014. Will the "Legal Marijuana Now" party or "Grassroots Party" even bother to run gubernatorial candidates this year?

*the death of the Independence Party. As a minor party now for the first statewide election since Jesse Ventura's victory, they will not have automatic ballot access, nor the ability to attract anyone on the caliber of Tom Horner or Tim Penny. They aren't going to siphon several points of moderate dems away this year.

*As the IP has faded, the Libertarian Party has strengthened, though they are also a minor party. Pretty obvious the Libertarian Party siphons a couple points away from the GOP. Also, see above - the Libertarian Party won't be the only game in town for legalization.

*Lastly, Tim Walz is a damn good candidate. You have to put your money on him vs. boring ass Jeff Johnson or Keith Downey. Walz slays these guys in the personality contest. And if it’s somehow not Walz, then it’s Otto and you have the “first woman governor” angle as well. I imagine Otto would do well enough with suburban women to put her over the top

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Silophant » January 29th, 2018, 10:58 pm

We'll see how our own special election goes next week, but I'd add Wisconsin's special election result to that list - a surprise Dem pickup in, basically, the Twin Cities exurbs.
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby EOst » January 30th, 2018, 8:42 am

Sometimes when a poll challenges expectations, it means the expectations are wrong. Sometimes, however, it means the poll is wrong.

This poll is far enough afield from what I'd expect that I would want to see another poll confirm it before I worried about it.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby amiller92 » January 30th, 2018, 10:13 am

I'm not going to dig into it, but one possibility is that they're over-sampling people who identify as Republicans, when, in fact, that group may have shrunk dramatically and those who still identify are, of course, fond of the Demented Donnie and his "policies."

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby David Greene » January 30th, 2018, 10:29 am

This sounds like a lot of magical thinking to me. This poll means something and we'd better heed it. As Hillary found out, it's hard for a party to win three terms in a row.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby EOst » January 30th, 2018, 11:07 am

It's not magical thinking at all. It's just being realistic about the limitations of polling, particularly in an area of drastically low response rates. National polls on this question vary by 10-15 percentage points. Their value is primarily in aggregate.

And there are a lot of things about the Strib's results that don't make a lot of sense zoomed out. For one thing, you'd have to believe that Trump is doing (roughly) 7 points better in Minnesota than nationwide, despite doing 2 points worse in Minnesota than nationwide during the 2016 election--an effective 9 point swing in the state's partisan makeup in a year. In fact, you'd have to believe that Trump is better-liked here than in multiple states he actually won, including Wisconsin and Michigan, which have seen recent polling that came up with much lower numbers.

Is that possible? Sure, anything's possible. We should be planning for the worst-case scenario, even as we're hoping for the best. But if Trump's actually getting 45% approval in Minnesota, it's hard to reconcile that with the nationwide numbers he's seeing and the other statewide numbers. It's easier for me to believe that a single poll with low sample size (800 people) and bad cell vs. landline numbers (70% landline!) is wrong than an average of dozens of national polls.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby EOst » January 30th, 2018, 12:34 pm

And just in time, Gallup released a poll showing Trump at 37% in Minnesota, which is exactly where he should be at 38% nationwide: http://news.gallup.com/poll/226454/trum ... rmont.aspx

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby LakeCharles » January 30th, 2018, 1:55 pm

And just in time, Gallup released a poll showing Trump at 37% in Minnesota, which is exactly where he should be at 38% nationwide: http://news.gallup.com/poll/226454/trum ... rmont.aspx
Based on a sample size of 3,291. Four times more than the Strib poll.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Silophant » January 30th, 2018, 2:38 pm

And 70% cell phones instead of 70% landlines.
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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby David Greene » January 30th, 2018, 4:14 pm

How many of those folks will vote in midterms?

I think Trump/Republicans are stronger in MN than people think. If people aren't happy with what's happening, who is in the Governor's office? Not Trump and not Republicans.

Hope I'm wrong, but preparing like I'm not.

I think I have settled on Walz as my preferred candidate, mostly because I think he's the most electable. I confess I haven't really looked into candidates' policy positions at all.

Who are you all supporting?

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby twincitizen » January 30th, 2018, 8:20 pm

At first my top two was Walz-Murphy, now is maybe Walz-Otto ?? I still like Murphy, then Coleman, with Thissen and Liebling pulling up the rear. Note that my list also lines up pretty closely with electability. In a vacuum, Chris Coleman is probably a stronger choice than he appears in my rank. But in the current political environment, having just lost dozens of outstate swing voters and former DFLers vote for Republicans (not just for Trump, but at the local level too), the 12-year mayor of St. Paul is not a good bet. How insanely easy are the attack ads to write? "Raised taxes 24% in his last year in office", images of scary freeway protests in St. Paul, and so on. Sorry Chris. Please think about running for County Board or State Senate?

I'll admit I haven't thoroughly researched the candidates' policy positions. But also, we simply cannot afford to lose this election. At the end of the day, I'm going to roll with who I think has the best chances. Not just to win the election, but to win with the biggest margin, pulling up state house candidates, not to mention pulling up Tina Smith, who is vulnerable no matter how you slice it. None of these are truly terrible candidates. (OK, Liebling obviously has no chance, but you can't say that too loud around the Bernie people or they get cranky and call you a neolib or some dumb s***)

I don't want to speak for everyone, but it kinda feels like Walz is pretty clearly the best choice to ensure the largest win margin possible, but I'm torn because Minnesota has never had a woman Governor, and that feels important. Especially important in the current moment.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby VacantLuxuries » January 31st, 2018, 9:07 am

Walz is my choice and I'll be going to the primaries.

I liked Otto's plans, but her digital ad buys are all negative. Way to learn lessons from 2016, Our Revolution...

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby MNdible » January 31st, 2018, 11:00 am

Yep, given the very thin policy differences between all of these candidates, it's pretty easy to marshal up behind an electable outstate candidate like Walz who should have good coattails.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby amiller92 » January 31st, 2018, 2:54 pm

You can also put in me the lean Walz camp, also mostly on electability, and also not having dug too deep on policy on any of them.

Otto is probably someone I should look into more, but the rest of the field isn't inspiring.

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Re: Minnesota Governor Election 2018

Postby Tiller » January 31st, 2018, 11:58 pm

Liebling and Coleman don't have effective state-wide campaigns, so setting everything else aside, they're probably the least electable. Rebecca Otto and Tim Walz are my top 2 atm. Rebecca if you want someone more progressive and Walz if you want someone more electable (without sacrificing too much of either characteristic).


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