US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

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twincitizen
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US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby twincitizen » October 2nd, 2017, 12:23 pm

Rochester area State Senator Carla Nelson to run for Tim Walz' congressional seat.
http://www.startribune.com/rochester-st ... 449087893/

State Senators are not on the ballot until 2020, so this is an opportune time for state senators to take a shot at congressional seats without giving up their current positions. Should Nelson actually win the GOP Primary and go on to beat the DFL candidate in the general, this would trigger a special election in her district in early 2019. An open seat like this is pretty much the only plausible scenario for the DFL to regain control of the MN Senate before 2020, as the GOP currently has a narrow 34-33 majority. Losing two extremely close races in 2016 was a major f*** up for the DFL. As we just experienced in recent sessions, it is one thing to control the Governor's office AND a branch of the leg....the GOP being in control of the House and Senate was a whole different ball game in '17.

I'm having a hard time reconciling wanting Democrats to take the US House in 2018 (and presumably needing every last swing district like MN-1), and wanting a member of the MN Senate to vacate their seat, so the DFL can control the Senate along with the Governors mansion by early 2019. The US House is clearly more important, given that Democratic control would essentially stop the Trump agenda cold in January 2019. The GOP is likely to pick up at least a couple US Senate seats in 2018, growing their majority to as many as 56 or 58 seats. They will have the votes in the Senate to repeal Obamacare and do whatever else they please, so Democrats really need to come out of 2018 with a majority in the House.

EOst
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby EOst » January 14th, 2018, 10:05 am

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpos ... 1d4b85d6d6
One prominent GOP donor said rumors that former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty would jump into the race are unfounded. “He’s told me unequivocally he’s not going to run for the Senate,” the donor said. Pawlenty did not respond to a request for comment.

xandrex
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby xandrex » January 16th, 2018, 2:57 pm

TPaw not running for Senate against Smith: https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/ ... ion-341184

mattaudio
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby mattaudio » February 9th, 2018, 9:33 am

Wow.
U.S. Rep Rick Nolan won't run for re-election in 8th District
http://www.startribune.com/nolan-won-t- ... 473572863/
The congressman who represents northern Minnesota said it's time 'to pass the baton.'

Sounds like he has someone in mind. I hope it's not his previously-announced challenger who previously was a deportationist for ICE.

Edit: Jacob Frey's chief of staff, a former DFL state rep from Crosby, says he's "considering it."

twincitizen
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby twincitizen » February 9th, 2018, 10:02 am

Former mnleg rising star Carly Melin seemed like she was being groomed for this until she chose not to run for re-election in 2016. Don Ness and current Duluth Mayor Emily Larson would both be very strong contenders, if interested. It’d be surprising if Tom Bakk didn’t take a crack at it, right?

amiller92
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby amiller92 » February 9th, 2018, 10:09 am

mattaudio wrote:
February 9th, 2018, 9:33 am

Sounds like he has someone in mind. I hope it's not his previously-announced challenger who previously was a deportationist for ICE.
The timing is really weird, with a bunch of party types hitting the ICE angle hard against the challenger just yesterday, which sure seemed to be in support of Nolan.

fehler
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby fehler » February 9th, 2018, 10:17 am

Rukavina Time!

mattaudio
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby mattaudio » February 9th, 2018, 10:33 am

Time for the Ghosts of Oberstar and Blatnik!

mamundsen
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby mamundsen » February 9th, 2018, 10:45 am

I read that Nolan's office was sending email for fundraising and other operations as recently as YESTERDAY at 11:20am. I wonder if there is another shoe yet to drop...

twincitizen
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby twincitizen » February 9th, 2018, 10:47 am

fehler wrote:
February 9th, 2018, 10:17 am
Rukavina Time!
Nah, he turns 68 this year. I'd guess he'll end his political career right where he is now, as a St. Louis County Commissioner.

Would his successor in the legislature, Jason Metsa, get any traction in this race?

This is going to be a tough race for the DFL...even this year. Pete Stauber is the only GOP candidate in the race and has had nearly a year head start on fundraising and campaigning. Meanwhile, the DFL race won't really be settled until the primary in August.

So now we're trying to win the Governor's race, two US Senate seats, hold MN-01 and MN-08 (both carried by Trump) without popular incumbents, as well as flipping MN-02. The state and national party are going to have tough decisions to make about funding priorities. Maybe this isn't the year to dump millions into MN-03 also?

amiller92
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby amiller92 » February 9th, 2018, 10:54 am

mamundsen wrote:
February 9th, 2018, 10:45 am
I read that Nolan's office was sending email for fundraising and other operations as recently as YESTERDAY at 11:20am. I wonder if there is another shoe yet to drop...
I think they just do that stuff regardless.

MNdible
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby MNdible » February 9th, 2018, 11:47 am

fehler wrote:
February 9th, 2018, 10:17 am
Rukavina Time!
Oh man, I miss me some Tommy Rukavina.

I think Tony Sertich could be a good candidate. Larson runs strong in Duluth, probably terribly in the rest of the district.

amiller92
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby amiller92 » February 9th, 2018, 1:02 pm

Tommy was a lot of fun, but also kinda terrible.

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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby Blaisdell Greenway » February 12th, 2018, 5:53 pm

I heard this year is going to be $100 million across all state races. MN-8 is still a top R pickup (probably MN-1 too), plus we are the #1 governor pickup for Republicans. I'm guessing much of that $100M is going to be burned on shite that's scientifically proven to be a complete waste (TV ads).

Bakken2016
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby Bakken2016 » June 5th, 2018, 11:49 am

Keith Ellison had withdraw-ed from running for CD5, and is running for State Attorney General.

xandrex
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby xandrex » June 5th, 2018, 1:18 pm

Torres Ray has filed to run.
Hayden said he isn't.
Apparently Margaret Anderson Kelliher is in.
Ilhan apparently going to file with Peter Wagenius and Mohamud Noor filing to run for her spot.
Gonna be a wild ride.

amiller92
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby amiller92 » June 5th, 2018, 2:11 pm

Way! A mess that was completely avoidable had Swanson either run for governor or been able to secure her parties's endorsement for AG. Thans, Lori.

But at least Keith is more appealing than Hatch for AG. Initial reaction is that Torres Ray would be fine in the house but I'll probably back Ilhan, who could be more than fine.

MNdible
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby MNdible » June 5th, 2018, 3:42 pm

I've got no love for Swanson, but it was clearly Ellison's bizarre decision to walk away from being a Representative to pursue the AG position that really caused the chaos.

Mcgizz
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby Mcgizz » June 5th, 2018, 5:25 pm

MNdible wrote:
June 5th, 2018, 3:42 pm
I've got no love for Swanson, but it was clearly Ellison's bizarre decision to walk away from being a Representative to pursue the AG position that really caused the chaos.
100% False. Lori's decision process began on Saturday by pulling out of the AG endorsement after the first ballot. Ellison's decision was a consequence of Lori's choices.

phop
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Re: US Congress and MN House Elections 2018

Postby phop » June 5th, 2018, 5:33 pm

MNdible wrote:
June 5th, 2018, 3:42 pm
I've got no love for Swanson, but it was clearly Ellison's bizarre decision to walk away from being a Representative to pursue the AG position that really caused the chaos.
Someone clearly had to get in. Matt Pelikan can't be the de-facto nominee. Not seeing how Ellison's decision is bizarre in any way.


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