Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

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Unity77
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Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Unity77 » May 23rd, 2013, 11:40 am

The U.S. Census Bureau has just released its annual estimates (July 1, 2012 Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012):

Minneapolis - 392,880 - gain of 10,3012 since 2010
St. Paul - 290,770 - gain of 5,702 since 2010
Rochester - 108,992 - gain of 2,223 since 2010
Duluth - 86,211 - loss of 54 since 2010
Bloomington - 86,033 - gain of 3,140 since 2010

NickP
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby NickP » May 23rd, 2013, 12:06 pm

Unity77 wrote:The U.S. Census Bureau has just released its annual estimates (July 1, 2012 Population: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2012):

Minneapolis - 392,880 - gain of 10,3012 since 2010
St. Paul - 290,770 - gain of 5,702 since 2010
Rochester - 108,992 - gain of 2,223 since 2010
Duluth - 86,211 - loss of 54 since 2010
Bloomington - 86,033 - gain of 3,140 since 2010
Unity, thanks mate! That is awesome. I hope Duluth can turn it around, but the fact that is is staying steady is pretty good I think. :)

lordmoke
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby lordmoke » May 23rd, 2013, 12:24 pm

Fantastic news! With all the new apartments coming online this year, we could break 400K for the first time since the 70's!

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Nick
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby Nick » May 23rd, 2013, 12:26 pm

I'd bet we (re)break 400,000 in 2015. Yay taxbase!

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby twincitizen » May 23rd, 2013, 12:49 pm

It's amazing that we've seen these gains as of July 2012, while almost NONE of the current apartment boom has hit the market yet. I agree with Nick, I'd be shocked if we weren't over 400,000 in July 2015 with so many apartments hitting the market in 2014. The growth isn't just in new construction either, as the economy recovers folks are buying up foreclosed houses and building on vacant lots (except in north, sadly, where we're just creating more vacant lots)

I'm surprised and skeptical about the St. Paul figures. Where is that growth going? How many new apartment units have opened in Saint Paul in 2010-2012? I can think of a couple that are under construction now or will be soon, but I'm not sure how they added that many without the visible boom that Minneapolis is undergoing. With the Green Line opening in a year though, I have no doubt that St. Paul will be over 300,000 by the 2020 Census...hopefully even higher!

emcee squared
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby emcee squared » May 23rd, 2013, 1:14 pm

We're not Houston, thankfully, but we're growing!

John
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby John » May 23rd, 2013, 4:19 pm

Nick wrote:I'd bet we (re)break 400,000 in 2015. Yay taxbase!
It appears likely! A nice steady growth but not crazy or unmanageable. When was Minneapolis last at a population of 400, 000? It's been awhile.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby NickP » May 23rd, 2013, 5:47 pm

1970s according to wikipedia.

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Nathan
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby Nathan » May 24th, 2013, 1:56 pm

We could move up to top 45 in populations soonish maybe! That would be awesome... I wish that cities population was ranked more on density than actual numbers... like MKE has over 500k people, but they have almost twice our land area...

*We're already number 35 in density according to wiki...

beykite
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby beykite » May 24th, 2013, 2:40 pm

Here's the link http://www.census.gov/popest/data/citie ... 012_27.csv
ctrl+f is your friend. Thoughts on what suburb could hit 100,000 first? Bloomington, Plymouth, Brooklyn Park or other?

612transplant
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby 612transplant » May 24th, 2013, 5:41 pm

^^^Anybody else surprised at Woodbury's (apparent) slowed growth?

Out of those three, it's hard to say. I have heard from people connected to the city that Brooklyn Park at "build-out" could accommodate about 90,000 residents, but that probably precludes some changes to zoning and infrastructure like water and sewer that could provide for higher density development...

612transplant
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby 612transplant » May 24th, 2013, 5:43 pm

fotoapparatic wrote:We could move up to top 45 in populations soonish maybe! That would be awesome... I wish that cities population was ranked more on density than actual numbers... like MKE has over 500k people, but they have almost twice our land area...

*We're already number 35 in density according to wiki...
I *believe* that we jumped to 47, due to Cleveland's decline. Tulsa is ahead of us, and not growing fast, but the census is also estimating big gains for Oakland, CA. So, if they're right about both cities, we might be blocked from 45 for some time...

Chef
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby Chef » May 26th, 2013, 4:34 pm

If Minneapolis continues to add population at this rate it will add over 900 ppsm to its' density by the end of the decade.

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Nick
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby Nick » May 27th, 2013, 7:45 am

I reread the initial post and I'll revise my prediction to some time next year.

Also, it's funny how meaningless the population rankings are due to land area, etc., but it's so easy to obsess over them a little bit. I know I do.

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Nick
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby Nick » June 8th, 2013, 7:50 pm

After biking around the city all day, I'll again revise my guess and say we'll probably hop back over 400,000 some time next year. Crazy stuff.

Edit: Er, yeah, that's what I said originally...early next year, I guess.

NickP
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby NickP » June 8th, 2013, 9:10 pm

Hey Nick, did you mean 'this year' in your above post?

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby twincitizen » June 13th, 2013, 2:54 pm

I don't know why this only occurred to me now, but let's take a look at Met Council's projections for 2010, 2020, and 2030 (projections circa 2004). I assume they will update these projections next year as the 2040 Regional Development Framework comes together, aka "Thrive MSP 2040".

St. Paul: http://stats.metc.state.mn.us/profile/d ... c=02396511
2010: 305k (missed this mark by a long shot at 285k actual)
2020: 320k (Not likely unless a flurry of intense development gets fired up immediately after LRT is running, but 310k is possible)
2030: 331k

Minneapolis: http://stats.metc.state.mn.us/profile/d ... c=02395345
2010: 405k (382k actual Census)
2020: 426k (That's a pretty high mark. Even if residential development kept at it's currently torrid pace, this is unlikely)
2030: 441k (Only possible if the LRT, aBRT, & streetcar(s) is mostly built out by early 2020s)

I don't know why they thought there would be so much growth from 2004-2010. Sure that was pre-recession and there was some condo development going on, but growth was almost exclusively happening at the fringe from 2000-2004. How could they have gotten it so wrong? Both cities fell >20k short of Met Council's projections, and will very likely not hit the 2020 numbers either, even with the very strong growth the central cities are seeing now. Is Met Council using different methodology than Census Bureau estimates?

FWIW, St. Louis Park missed its 2010 target as well, but is certain to reach the 2020 figure early and absolutely wallop the 2030 estimate with current development and SWLRT coming in. Percentage wise, SLP had pretty modest growth targets compared to the core cities. 7/1/2012 Census estimate is 46,362. Heck they could reach the 2020 figure (49,300) next year. http://stats.metc.state.mn.us/profile/d ... c=02396500
Last edited by twincitizen on June 13th, 2013, 3:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Nick
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby Nick » June 13th, 2013, 3:10 pm

I think I've said this before, but I've noticed that no projection >5 years out is ever correct.

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby twincitizen » June 13th, 2013, 3:25 pm

Even factoring in the recession, they were so incredibly wrong for something that was just 6 years away. Like 2010 will be their most-wrong estimate and the ones further out will actually be less-wrong.

Unelected bureaucrats, Agenda 21, boondoggle.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby mullen » July 11th, 2013, 10:47 am



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