Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

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Korh
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Korh » May 28th, 2018, 11:15 am

so decided to use the new population estimations and make a density portion, (calculated based on available land of a city i.e. no water) only did the cites/townships in Hennepinn county (someone else is more welcome to do the rest)
Image

The top 5 densest cities in Hennepin as of 2016 end up being
1. Minneapolis 7,723 per sq. mi. (no surprise)
2. Robbinsdale 5,326 per sq. mi.
3. Richfield 5,319 per sq. mi.
4. Spring Park 4,842 per sq. mi. (if you're confused about that, only .36 sq mi of the cities .62 sq mi is land and like I said didn't calculate water)
5. Hopkins 4,676 per sq. mi.

And the top 5 densest growing cities are
1. Minneapolis 754 growth per sq. mi. (no surprise again)
2. Osseo 483 growth per sq. mi.
3. Hopkins 365 growth per sq. mi.
4. Wayzata 362 growth per sq. mi.
5. St. Louis Park 345 growth per sq. mi.

didn't get all of it though since the 5 cities that are in Hennepin and an adjacent county since I didn't really try to to find how much area is in Hennepin county but I only spent a few minuets on this

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 30th, 2018, 10:57 pm

This is excellent. Well done!

Korh
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Korh » June 1st, 2018, 6:20 pm

Decided to make another density chart, this time for Ramsey County (if anyone else wants me to do one of the other metro counties just ask).
Image

Top 5 in terms of density:
St. Paul: 5,948 per sq. mi. (surprisingly wasn't in 2010)
Lauderdale: 5,776 per sq. mi.
North St. Paul: 4.256 per sq. mi.
New Brighton: 3,541 per sq. mi.
Mounds View: 3,307 per sq. mi.

top 5 in terms of densest growing
St. Paul: 464 growth per sq. mi.
Mounds View: 291 growth per sq. mi.
North St. Paul: 224 growth per sq. mi.
New Brighton: 220 growth per sq. mi.
Roseville: 179 growth per sq. mi.

I'm starting to wonder if these charts are any bit helpful since while they do give a average density of a city, they don't factor in whether or not a city has more of a uniform population density or has pockets of high density areas counteracted with areas of low density in its boundries.

NickP
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby NickP » June 2nd, 2018, 11:03 am

I can’t comment on helpful, but I find them very interesting! Thank you for doing them :-)

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Bob Stinson's Ghost
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Bob Stinson's Ghost » June 3rd, 2018, 1:16 pm

It's a snapshot. Different people will view it differently.

To me it looks like the calm before the storm. The birthrate continues to fall and the mortality of the largest generation in the history of America will start ramping rapidly in the next decade. The first of the boomers are now 73. The more I read about it the more worried I get. We're much better off than Japan or China, but it's still going to be a pretty big drag. I'm thinking growth will be pretty elusive over the next 20 years.

Does anybody have a reality check? Am I worrying about nothing?

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Tiller
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Tiller » June 3rd, 2018, 3:25 pm

Bob Stinson's Ghost wrote:
June 3rd, 2018, 1:16 pm
The more I read about it the more worried I get. We're much better off than Japan or China, but it's still going to be a pretty big drag. I'm thinking growth will be pretty elusive over the next 20 years.

Does anybody have a reality check? Am I worrying about nothing?
Even in nations like Japan/China/Germany, their populations are still urbanizing. That's the reason why Tokyo's population is increasing even while Japan's demographics are hollowing out. I wouldn't expect urban growth to slow much because of the baby boomers.

Rather, small towns, rural areas, and other places who have lost a disproportionate amount of their young people (maybe some rust belt states?) will bear the brunt of demographic decline.

BoredAgain
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby BoredAgain » June 3rd, 2018, 6:25 pm

Bob Stinson's Ghost wrote:
June 3rd, 2018, 1:16 pm
It's a snapshot. Different people will view it differently.

To me it looks like the calm before the storm. The birthrate continues to fall and the mortality of the largest generation in the history of America will start ramping rapidly in the next decade. The first of the boomers are now 73. The more I read about it the more worried I get. We're much better off than Japan or China, but it's still going to be a pretty big drag. I'm thinking growth will be pretty elusive over the next 20 years.

Does anybody have a reality check? Am I worrying about nothing?
The millennial generation is larger than the boomer generation. Things will still shift because people are living longer, but we're not jumping off a cliff.

minntransplant
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby minntransplant » June 4th, 2018, 8:03 am

Tiller wrote:
June 3rd, 2018, 3:25 pm
Bob Stinson's Ghost wrote:
June 3rd, 2018, 1:16 pm
The more I read about it the more worried I get. We're much better off than Japan or China, but it's still going to be a pretty big drag. I'm thinking growth will be pretty elusive over the next 20 years.

Does anybody have a reality check? Am I worrying about nothing?
Even in nations like Japan/China/Germany, their populations are still urbanizing. That's the reason why Tokyo's population is increasing even while Japan's demographics are hollowing out. I wouldn't expect urban growth to slow much because of the baby boomers.

Rather, small towns, rural areas, and other places who have lost a disproportionate amount of their young people (maybe some rust belt states?) will bear the brunt of demographic decline.
Agreed. Rural and small towns will be decimated. Plus, the current administration notwithstanding, metro areas like ours will continue to grow due to immigration.

amiller92
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby amiller92 » June 4th, 2018, 8:38 am

Bob Stinson's Ghost wrote:
June 3rd, 2018, 1:16 pm
It's a snapshot. Different people will view it differently.

To me it looks like the calm before the storm. The birthrate continues to fall and the mortality of the largest generation in the history of America will start ramping rapidly in the next decade. The first of the boomers are now 73. The more I read about it the more worried I get. We're much better off than Japan or China, but it's still going to be a pretty big drag. I'm thinking growth will be pretty elusive over the next 20 years.

Does anybody have a reality check? Am I worrying about nothing?
These are issues we could easily solve with immigration...

mplsjaromir
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby mplsjaromir » June 4th, 2018, 8:43 am

There are going to be millions of climate refugees (some argue Syria has produced the first). This area will be an attractive place to relocate.

QuietBlue
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby QuietBlue » June 6th, 2018, 8:59 am

BoredAgain wrote:
June 3rd, 2018, 6:25 pm
The millennial generation is larger than the boomer generation. Things will still shift because people are living longer, but we're not jumping off a cliff.
Correct, but Generation Z is smaller, which contributes to the issue.

Chef
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Chef » June 6th, 2018, 10:37 am

In theory, the first areas to be impacted by the die off of the baby boomers would be retirement areas, because that will be where most of them are when they die, but those are also areas that have had high immigration.

One element of immigration that doesn't get talked about much is the fact that Latin America had a huge baby boom in the second half of the 20th century. That was a big driver of immigration to the US because their workforces were growing faster than their economies, especially in Mexico. That baby boom ended in the mid '90s and as a result the US as a whole will be receiving far fewer Latin American immigrants in the near to mid term future.

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Bob Stinson's Ghost
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Bob Stinson's Ghost » June 6th, 2018, 8:29 pm

I was a bit surprised to find that Tokyo is growing, so I did some digging. It appears greater Tokyo is expected to peak in 2025 and begin a long decline, though there will be continuing migration towards the core:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/ ... l-shrinks/

Here are the Census Bureau's projections for the US as a whole:

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Cens ... 5_1144.pdf

They are modeling growth (though steadily decelerating) and flat immigration.

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » April 22nd, 2019, 11:58 am

Census Bureau estimates (July 1, 2018 population) are out now for counties and metro areas. Cities come out in May.

County | 2010 | 2017 | 2018
Hennepin | 1,152,425 | 1,248,246 | 1,259,428
Ramsey | 508,640 | 545,518 | 550,210
Dakota | 398,552 | 421,821 | 425,423
Anoka | 330,844 | 350,521 | 353,813
Washington | 238,136 | 255,697 | 259,201
Scott | 129,928 | 145,595 | 147,381
Carver | 91,042 | 102,150 | 103,551

7-county (Met Council area) metro population now 3,099,007
In 2010, Hennepin+Ramsey = 58.3% of 7-county population
In 2018, Hennepin+Ramsey = 58.4% of 7-county population

If anyone wants to do more math, here's MN:
Minnesota | 5,303,925 | 5,568,155 | 5,611,179

LakeCharles
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby LakeCharles » April 22nd, 2019, 12:27 pm

From 2010 to 2018:
Carver, Scott and Hennepin grew faster than the 7-county average, Washington grew at the same rate, and Ramsey, Dakota and Anoka grew slower than the average. Growth rate is in the order listed.

From 2017 to 2018:
Carver, Washington and Scott grew faster than the 7-county average, Anoka grew at the same rate, and Hennepin, Ramsey and Dakota grew slower than the average. Growth rate is in the order listed.

In both, all 7 grew at a faster rate than the state as a whole. The 7-country metro was 53.7% of the state in 2010, and is 55.2% now.

Minneboy
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Minneboy » April 24th, 2019, 3:24 pm

So at the current rate it will take approx 10 years to hit state population of 6mil. If anyone wants to do more math, here's MN:
Minnesota | 5,303,925 | 5,568,155 | 5,611,179

NickP
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby NickP » May 21st, 2019, 11:26 pm

https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... 2019).aspx

Here's a link to the recently published Met Council 2018 population estimates.
As a quick over view, the five largest metro cities are Minneapolis (429,382), St. Paul (313,010), Bloomington (89,654), Brooklyn Park (81,679), and Woodbury (70,840).

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kellonathan
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby kellonathan » May 22nd, 2019, 12:20 am

Bloomington on track to join the league of "first class cities" soon!
Jonathan Ahn, AICP | hello@jonathanahn.com
Drawing lines on maps and dreaming really hard for living.

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jtoemke
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby jtoemke » May 22nd, 2019, 6:25 am

NickP wrote:
May 21st, 2019, 11:26 pm
https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... 2019).aspx

Here's a link to the recently published Met Council 2018 population estimates.
As a quick over view, the five largest metro cities are Minneapolis (429,382), St. Paul (313,010), Bloomington (89,654), Brooklyn Park (81,679), and Woodbury (70,840).
7k for each of the cities! Big year!

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Anondson
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Anondson » May 22nd, 2019, 7:35 am

I want to see the list ranked by percentage.


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