Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

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twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 21st, 2015, 1:57 pm

For the future projections, looking out 20, 30 years, I believe someone here said Met Council had the better track record, though both definitely missed on 2010 outlooks - as Mpls stagnated and St. Paul shrank.

As for the annual estimates, in this particular instance it appears the Census is a little more conservative. That MPR story has a lower numbers for Mpls (407,207) & StP (297,640) than Met Council did.

MPR has an interactive map which you can click around to see each City's estimate.
Here's a .CSV file you can download with each year's census estimate if you really want to geek out: http://www.census.gov/popest/data/citie ... 014_27.csv

On a ranking of the largest cities in the country, Bloomington just toppled Duluth in 2013, but also apparently lost 83 people 2013-14:

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370 Bloomington city, Minnesota 82,893 82,893 83,036 83,917 86,060 86,397 86,314 371 Duluth city, Minnesota 86,265 86,266 86,226 86,270 86,255 86,221 86,238

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421 Brooklyn Park city, Minnesota 75,781 75,784 75,970 76,889 77,769 78,442 78,728 452 Plymouth city, Minnesota 70,576 70,561 70,684 71,658 72,928 74,023 75,057 519 Maple Grove city, Minnesota 61,567 61,569 61,799 63,200 64,431 65,463 66,945 523 Woodbury city, Minnesota 61,961 61,965 62,239 63,523 64,512 65,665 66,807 529 St. Cloud city, Minnesota 65,842 65,946 65,955 65,915 65,963 66,075 66,389 531 Eagan city, Minnesota 64,206 64,205 64,258 64,526 64,853 65,485 66,084 560 Eden Prairie city, Minnesota 60,797 60,751 60,856 61,610 62,220 62,596 63,228 574 Coon Rapids city, Minnesota 61,476 61,476 61,541 61,506 61,879 62,027 62,112 577 Burnsville city, Minnesota 60,306 60,307 60,408 60,655 61,128 61,482 61,630 584 Blaine city, Minnesota 57,186 57,177 57,396 58,128 59,353 60,386 61,190
The first 3 columns of pop numbers are all 2010 (Census, Base, 7/1/2010 est.) Then it's 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014.

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 21st, 2015, 2:21 pm

And Minneapolis has some interesting company:

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44 Miami, Florida 399,457 399,508 401,136 412,438 416,917 421,363 430,332 45 Oakland, Calif 390,724 390,905 391,716 396,649 401,867 407,667 413,775 46 MINNEAPOLIS 382,578 382,599 383,062 388,253 392,966 400,647 407,207 47 Tulsa, Oklahoma 391,906 391,922 392,422 392,751 394,510 398,404 399,682 48 Cleveland, Ohio 396,815 396,697 395,994 392,505 391,406 391,156 389,521
With Oakland and especially Miami growing rapidly, it seems we offer no credible threat to overtake them anytime soon. Even at our current blistering growth rate we'll have a hard time keeping up. It doesn't look like either Tulsa or Cleveland are threatening us either, so we're pretty safely at #46 through at least the 2020 Census. 49, 50, and 51 are Wichita, New Orleans, and Arlington TX. It drops off quite a bit after that.

St. Paul has some interesting company too:

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64 Anchorage, Alaska 291,826 291,826 293,337 296,282 298,633 301,629 301,010 65 Cincinnati, Ohio 296,943 296,950 296,918 296,114 296,801 297,618 298,165 66 SAINT PAUL 285,068 285,068 285,468 288,884 291,244 295,431 297,640 67 Greensboro, NC 269,666 268,877 269,521 272,521 276,372 279,782 282,586 68 Toledo city, Ohio 287,208 287,206 287,028 285,549 283,450 282,633 281,031
If the local economy stays hot and development along the Green Line unfolds as it should, St. Paul could move up anywhere from 2-4 spots by 2020. (I am not confident anyone will be living at the Ford site by April 1, 2020, so not even considering that)

EDIT: Here's your Census Factfinder link for incorporated places over 50k population, ranked: http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tabl ... l?src=bkmk

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby xandrex » May 21st, 2015, 2:32 pm

I think something else interesting is that if you combine Minneapolis and St. Paul (total population: 704,847), you've got a city that would rank as the 18th largest (about 25,000 ahead of Detroit, about 100,000 less than Charlotte).

Really provides some perspective on where we really are in the rankings. We'd be larger than any of our usual peer cities except Austin.

http://factfinder.census.gov/faces/tabl ... l?src=bkmk

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 21st, 2015, 2:36 pm

Don't worry MNdible, I got U:
On May 23, 2014, MNdible wrote:Yes, because at 700,000, we're nipping at the heels of that mighty metropolis of Jacksonville, FL.

These figures are only useful for internal consumption -- did your city grow or shrink. Comparing them to anywhere else, where they happened to draw the arbitrary municipal boundaries differently, is utterly useless.


EDIT: I agree with you, xandrex, that the perception does matter. And I agree with MNdible too that the boundaries are completely arbitrary and not great for making national comparisons. If we could get more news organizations, etc. to use the combined figure, or at least throw it a bone, that would be nice. We're a pretty large metropolis - our cities should be in the conversation with other medium-large cities. 700,000 puts us in good company. 400,000 is like a large suburb in CA, TX, or AZ.

Our 700k+ over 106.88 sq mi of land has a nice density of 6595/sq mi. Obviously nowhere near East Coast dense, and not even Seattle dense (7969/sq mi), but better than most others.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby xandrex » May 21st, 2015, 2:51 pm

Obviously, you can't compare them due to these facts. But what's astounding is that Minneapolis + St. Paul is still smaller in area than pretty much anywhere else it's every compared to. It's just more fun to look at what having two cities does to your ranking.

To get to the size of a Seattle or Denver (in area), you could take Minneapolis + St. Paul + Richfield + Edina + St. Louis Park. Which comes out to about 840,000 people at a pretty decent density.

I was making, in different language, MNdible's point. The arbitrary nature of civil boundaries makes us look a lot less significant than we actually are. (Though I'd argue that this actually does affect perceptions to a certain degree...)

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby MNdible » May 21st, 2015, 3:04 pm

Hey, somebody actually reads my posts!

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Nick
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Nick » May 21st, 2015, 3:16 pm

I got a little over a million separating the urbanish parts of the metro area from everything else: https://streets.mn/2015/02/19/measuring- ... h-the-map/

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 11th, 2016, 11:08 am

Preliminary 2015 estimates are out
(link fixed)

St. Paul finally cracked 300k! (300,353 - up from 299,641 in 2014)
Minneapolis is sitting at 412,517, up from 411,286 in 2014.

It could be that 2013-2014's estimates were too high and they're moderating down, or maybe that April'14 - April'15 just didn't see that much growth, but Mpls' 1,300 person increase would be the smallest in several years. Growth has been around 6,000 a few years in a row (and 30k total since the 2010 Census - an average 6k per year). The US Census Bureau will put out their own estimates later in the month, so we'll see how those numbers jive with the Met Council preliminary estimates here.

P.S. Reminder that these estimates are as of April 1, 2015, so already a year old, if you're trying to figure population as of today. Safe to say Minneapolis is probably at least 414k as of today. All indications are that Minneapolis will be at or above 420k in time for the 2020 Census - a solid 10% above 2010.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 19th, 2016, 8:01 am

US Census Bureau city-level estimates are out!
(yes, these are different & separate than Met Council's estimates released a week ago)

MN Cities over 50,000 as of July 1, 2015:
Minneapolis 410,939 (still safely #46 nationally)
St. Paul 300,851 (surpassed Cincy and Anchorage to be #64, could pass Pittsburgh & Stockton by 2020)
Rochester 112,225
Bloomington 86,435
Duluth 86,110
Brooklyn Park 79,149
Plymouth 75,907
Maple Grove 68,385
Woodbury 67,855
St. Cloud 67,109
Eagan 66,286
Eden Prairie 63,496
Coon Rapids 62,240
Blaine 62,124
Burnsville 61,481
Lakeville 60,633
Minnetonka 51,669
Apple Valley 51,221
Edina 50,138 (first time making the list!)

http://www.census.gov/popest/data/citie ... index.html

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby kiliff75 » May 19th, 2016, 6:01 pm

Wow NYC has added almost an entire Minneapolis since 2010!

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby SkyScraperKid » May 19th, 2016, 6:30 pm

Woo Hoo! 710,000 for the Twin Cities! I can't wait until we have our very first "Boomburb" city of Bloomington! I hope it can reach 100,000 population soon!

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby bapster2006 » May 19th, 2016, 6:51 pm

All right Minneapolis! Way to blow Tulsa and Cleveland out of the water!

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Mcgizz » May 19th, 2016, 8:06 pm

What are peoples thoughts when they see a list like this? Is it really fair to simply stop the thoughts about Minneapolis as only the 46th largest city in America or is it better to think of Minneapolis and St. Paul as one entity? I almost always find myself thinking of us as one entity. The borders touch and the relationship is mutual. So I lump them together and when one does that they are 700k+ which would list us 17th. Is it better to think that way? Can someone offer some thoughts (I honestly don't know if it is right or wrong)? Or are we an Oakland or Tulsa?

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby EOst » May 19th, 2016, 8:24 pm

Those lists are completely meaningless, and not just for the reasons you've mentioned. The fact that Minneapolis = pre-1940 or so and suburbs = post-1940 just isn't true in a lot of metros, either because they annexed a lot of that land when it was still rural, or because they annexed the emerging suburbs. So in order to do a fair comparison, you'd have to include places like Richfield, St. Louis Park, and Robbinsdale, a process so arbitrary that you're much better off going by MSA stats.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby grant1simons2 » May 19th, 2016, 9:52 pm

Mcgizz wrote:What are peoples thoughts when they see a list like this? Is it really fair to simply stop the thoughts about Minneapolis as only the 46th largest city in America or is it better to think of Minneapolis and St. Paul as one entity? I almost always find myself thinking of us as one entity. The borders touch and the relationship is mutual. So I lump them together and when one does that they are 700k+ which would list us 17th. Is it better to think that way? Can someone offer some thoughts (I honestly don't know if it is right or wrong)? Or are we an Oakland or Tulsa?
It's kind of hard because of the size of Minneapolis. 58 sq. miles makes us one of the smallest major US cities in the country (seriously, we're not even in the top 150). Oakland, who's just ahead of us, is 78 sq. miles, has a population of 419,267. If Minneapolis and Edina combined, we'd be 74 sq. miles with a population of roughly 460,000. Always makes me feel a little better.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby QuietBlue » May 20th, 2016, 7:25 am

Yeah, it would be interesting to see a map (maybe someone's already made one?) of what Minneapolis/St. Paul would look like if they had a comparable geographic footprint to other major cities, and what the population would then be.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby seamonster » May 20th, 2016, 9:34 am


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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby min-chi-cbus » May 22nd, 2016, 10:42 pm

I don't get how Minneapolis's population only grew by just over 1k when it averaged more like 5k-7k per year for the past few years, and -- as far as I can tell without pulling out the stats -- development patterns have been somewhat similar during this time period.

Separately, if the core cities want to continue to grow they will have to try and cater to the people in the middle (specifically the lower 95%), including families with school-aged children. If there's a way to address this with finite land supply and limited opportunities to develop single-family homes, then the sky's the limit for the core cities.

It's hard to complain about core growth though.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 23rd, 2016, 7:50 am

The drop in growth is peculiar. Both the Met Council and Census Bureau agree though, so I'm inclined to believe the estimates.

It could be that both bodies were over-estimating growth in 2011-2014 and decided to moderate down for 2015, OR that the 1-year period of Spring 2014 - Spring 2015 just didn't see as many new units opening.

But more importantly, population growth is not just new units added, but also existing units absorbed. In 2011-2014, we saw vacancy rates at existing apartments dive down to near 0%. If all the older units in the city are already near 100% occupied, there isn't any room for further absorption. That's my best guess as to why population growth has slowed a bit. If that is true, it definitely bodes well for continued construction.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Chef » May 23rd, 2016, 9:59 am

My guess is that part of our growth over the last five years was due to vacant foreclosures being occupied again. Remember that Minneapolis didn't grow much in the '00s despite all the development because foreclosures were balancing out the new development. If the reoccupation of foreclosures and abandoned buildings is now largely complete then one of the drivers of growth has shut down, and we are relying only on new development.


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