urbanMSP

The more I read about it the more worried I get. We're much better off than Japan or China, but it's still going to be a pretty big drag. I'm thinking growth will be pretty elusive over the next 20 years.

Does anybody have a reality check? Am I worrying about nothing?

Even in nations like Japan/China/Germany, their populations are still urbanizing. That's the reason why Tokyo's population is increasing even while Japan's demographics are hollowing out. I wouldn't expect urban growth to slow much because of the baby boomers.

Rather, small towns, rural areas, and other places who have lost a disproportionate amount of their young people (maybe some rust belt states?) will bear the brunt of demographic decline.

It's a snapshot. Different people will view it differently.

To me it looks like the calm before the storm. The birthrate continues to fall and the mortality of the largest generation in the history of America will start ramping rapidly in the next decade. The first of the boomers are now 73. The more I read about it the more worried I get. We're much better off than Japan or China, but it's still going to be a pretty big drag. I'm thinking growth will be pretty elusive over the next 20 years.

Does anybody have a reality check? Am I worrying about nothing?

The millennial generation is larger than the boomer generation. Things will still shift because people are living longer, but we're not jumping off a cliff.

The more I read about it the more worried I get. We're much better off than Japan or China, but it's still going to be a pretty big drag. I'm thinking growth will be pretty elusive over the next 20 years.

Does anybody have a reality check? Am I worrying about nothing?

Even in nations like Japan/China/Germany, their populations are still urbanizing. That's the reason why Tokyo's population is increasing even while Japan's demographics are hollowing out. I wouldn't expect urban growth to slow much because of the baby boomers.

Rather, small towns, rural areas, and other places who have lost a disproportionate amount of their young people (maybe some rust belt states?) will bear the brunt of demographic decline.

Agreed. Rural and small towns will be decimated. Plus, the current administration notwithstanding, metro areas like ours will continue to grow due to immigration.

It's a snapshot. Different people will view it differently.

To me it looks like the calm before the storm. The birthrate continues to fall and the mortality of the largest generation in the history of America will start ramping rapidly in the next decade. The first of the boomers are now 73. The more I read about it the more worried I get. We're much better off than Japan or China, but it's still going to be a pretty big drag. I'm thinking growth will be pretty elusive over the next 20 years.

Does anybody have a reality check? Am I worrying about nothing?

These are issues we could easily solve with immigration...

There are going to be millions of climate refugees (some argue Syria has produced the first). This area will be an attractive place to relocate.

The millennial generation is larger than the boomer generation. Things will still shift because people are living longer, but we're not jumping off a cliff.

Correct, but Generation Z is smaller, which contributes to the issue.

In theory, the first areas to be impacted by the die off of the baby boomers would be retirement areas, because that will be where most of them are when they die, but those are also areas that have had high immigration.

One element of immigration that doesn't get talked about much is the fact that Latin America had a huge baby boom in the second half of the 20th century. That was a big driver of immigration to the US because their workforces were growing faster than their economies, especially in Mexico. That baby boom ended in the mid '90s and as a result the US as a whole will be receiving far fewer Latin American immigrants in the near to mid term future.

I was a bit surprised to find that Tokyo is growing, so I did some digging. It appears greater Tokyo is expected to peak in 2025 and begin a long decline, though there will be continuing migration towards the core:

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/ ... l-shrinks/

Here are the Census Bureau's projections for the US as a whole:

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Cens ... 5_1144.pdf

They are modeling growth (though steadily decelerating) and flat immigration.

Census Bureau estimates (July 1, 2018 population) are out now for counties and metro areas. Cities come out in May.

County | 2010 | 2017 | 2018
Hennepin | 1,152,425 | 1,248,246 | 1,259,428
Ramsey | 508,640 | 545,518 | 550,210
Dakota | 398,552 | 421,821 | 425,423
Anoka | 330,844 | 350,521 | 353,813
Washington | 238,136 | 255,697 | 259,201
Scott | 129,928 | 145,595 | 147,381
Carver | 91,042 | 102,150 | 103,551

7-county (Met Council area) metro population now 3,099,007
In 2010, Hennepin+Ramsey = 58.3% of 7-county population
In 2018, Hennepin+Ramsey = 58.4% of 7-county population

If anyone wants to do more math, here's MN:
Minnesota | 5,303,925 | 5,568,155 | 5,611,179

From 2010 to 2018:
Carver, Scott and Hennepin grew faster than the 7-county average, Washington grew at the same rate, and Ramsey, Dakota and Anoka grew slower than the average. Growth rate is in the order listed.

From 2017 to 2018:
Carver, Washington and Scott grew faster than the 7-county average, Anoka grew at the same rate, and Hennepin, Ramsey and Dakota grew slower than the average. Growth rate is in the order listed.

In both, all 7 grew at a faster rate than the state as a whole. The 7-country metro was 53.7% of the state in 2010, and is 55.2% now.

So at the current rate it will take approx 10 years to hit state population of 6mil. If anyone wants to do more math, here's MN:
Minnesota | 5,303,925 | 5,568,155 | 5,611,179

https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... 2019).aspx

Here's a link to the recently published Met Council 2018 population estimates.
As a quick over view, the five largest metro cities are Minneapolis (429,382), St. Paul (313,010), Bloomington (89,654), Brooklyn Park (81,679), and Woodbury (70,840).

Bloomington on track to join the league of "first class cities" soon!

https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... 2019).aspx

Here's a link to the recently published Met Council 2018 population estimates.
As a quick over view, the five largest metro cities are Minneapolis (429,382), St. Paul (313,010), Bloomington (89,654), Brooklyn Park (81,679), and Woodbury (70,840).

7k for each of the cities! Big year!

I want to see the list ranked by percentage.

https://www.twincities.com/2019/05/20/s ... in-cities/

This Pioneer Press Article goes into the percentage growth a bit.

the five largest metro cities are Minneapolis (429,382), St. Paul (313,010), Bloomington (89,654), Brooklyn Park (81,679), and Woodbury (70,840)

You missed Plymouth (78,351). Woodbury has more than enough open land to eclipse Plymouth within a decade, but Plymouth also has a ton of industrial property along the MN-55 corridor in the SE quadrant of the city that could see large apartment complexes added, assuming demand and political support.

Bloomington on track to join the league of "first class cities" soon!

Also hitting an all-time population high (89,654), after having dropped since the previous recorded high of 86,355 in 1990. It dropped by a couple thousand in the next two Census counts, bottoming out at ~83k in 2010. 90k is assured for the 2020 Census.

2019 estimates are out for counties & metro areas: https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-r ... metro.html

https://twitter.com/yfreemark/status/12 ... 8385375236?

MN spreadsheet link: https://www2.census.gov/programs-survey ... es-27.xlsx

The state as a whole gained about 33,400 on the year; 8,000 of which was in Hennepin and 1,500 in Ramsey. The 5 suburban counties each gained between 1,500-4,000 (led by Dakota County). The reason for Ramsey County's smaller growth is pretty simple - it's small geographically and fully developed aside from the TCAAP site. There's no place for further suburban sprawl to go, unlike the 5 suburban counties which are both infilling multifamily and adding suburban subdivisions at the exurban fringe. Ramsey County's growth is almost entirely reliant on infill development in St. Paul and whichever of its suburbs have strong enough markets to drive new apartment construction (Shoreview, White Bear Lake, etc.)

City-level estimates typically come out in May. I don't know if the Census releases those during a Census year, but I'd assume the Met Council will still release their 2019 estimates in the coming months.

How are these estimates looking for keeping a congressional seat in Minnesota?

Seems it would take a big undercount in TX and/or FL to keep Minnesota's 8 seats. Luckily for us, that is on the table, with those GOP-led states not putting state funds into getting an accurate count like most blue states have. And those states have lower self-response rates than MN. Especially with coronavirus affecting the Census bureau's ability to do in-person follow-ups for folks that don't complete their forms, it does seem TX and FL (and Alabama, which is fighting to keep its 7th seat and comes in just ahead of MN on the apportionment projections) are all pretty ripe for undercounts. We might just beat the odds and keep the 8th. As of last year, MN's 8th was showing up as #437 on the apportionment projections. This report has lists of seats 431-435 (and theoretical seats 436-440) based on the 2019 estimate, and with estimated 2019-2020 growth added in: https://www.electiondataservices.com/wp ... MSF0951a18 - Both models have MN-8 coming in behind AL-7 and FL-29.

Also, if you're thinking about COVID-19 impacts, keep in mind that the pandemic itself wouldn't have much direct affect on actual population, since the census is technically counted as of April 1 (~25% and counting have already filled theirs out online). Where it will have the biggest impact is on the ability to get people counted in the field, not whether those people exist. No matter what happens, there is just a massive likelihood of undercounts happening all over the country this census, especially on the hardest-to-count populations.

The Census has a map of online self-response rates here: https://2020census.gov/en/response-rates.html
I think this gets updated daily. Considering it's not April 1 yet and paper forms haven't been sent out (to households that haven't responded online), I think the early numbers are fairly encouraging. Most people being home with nothing to do is hopefully boosting those online response rates. Per usual, the upper midwest is leading the country in self-response, but there's a long way to go to reach the self-response rates of 2010 (range of WV's 59% to MN's 74% in 2010).