Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby twincitizen » July 11th, 2013, 12:21 pm

Met Council's estimates are ~800 fewer people in Mpls, and 1,500 fewer people in St. Paul than the Census estimates at the top of this thread.

Wassup with that?

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby MNdible » July 11th, 2013, 12:48 pm

They each use different methodologies. Historically, the Met Council's numbers have been more accurate than the census estimates.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby twincitizen » July 11th, 2013, 1:00 pm

I can't be the only one who thought the Census' St. Paul numbers were a bit inflated. Not to pick on St. Paul (again), but exactly how many new housing units came online between 2010-2012? I mean, I can't specifically think of any. Surely they did not add 4,000+ people in two years through existing/bank-owned home sales and lowering the apartment vacancy rate...

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby twincitizen » September 10th, 2013, 9:14 pm

Found this in a SW Journal story from July:

Minneapolis added 9,430 residents from April 2010 to April 2012, bringing the city’s population up to 392,008 — a 2.5 percent increase. If Minneapolis continued to add 4,715 residents per year, the city’s population would reach 453,303 in 2025.

My thoughts: there's no way development can keep up the torrid pace of the past 2 years (and next 2, with everything in the pipeline. We might actually top that 4,715 number from April 2012 to April 2014 as the current slate of projects come online, but it's gotta slow down a little. I don't think there's a bubble waiting to burst, but the demand has got to ebb at some point. A huge component of the population growth is going to have to come from filling in the northside and other depressed areas that really hollowed out during the foreclosure crisis. We also need empty nesters and retirees to downsize from SFHs to apts/condos (or move to the suburbs, ha!) and allow families to fill our neighborhoods with kids again.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby twincitizen » September 11th, 2013, 2:17 pm

Met Council's preliminary 2040 estimates are out: http://www.metrocouncil.org/News-Events ... ea-gr.aspx

MPLS: 488k
STP: 338k
Bloomington: 113k
Edina: 71k (wowzers! I guess Southdale-adjacent high rise apartment construction is only getting started)
SLP: 68k

For Minneapolis, assuming exactly 400k on April 1, 2014, that's an increase of 88,000 over 26 years, or 3385 people/year.
St. Paul's projected growth rate is roughly half of that, adding 43,000 or 1654 people/year.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby twincitizen » February 13th, 2014, 8:33 pm

As a result of a recently lowered national 2040 estimate by the Census Bureau, the Met Council is revising their projections down: http://metrocouncil.org/News-Events/Pla ... -2040.aspx

Revised projections for individual municipalities should be available next week. Expect most to be around 2% lower than the ones we saw last summer.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby John » February 13th, 2014, 9:40 pm

I noticed they look at current family formations as an indicator of future population growth. It will be interesting to watch the recent immigrant's children (and their grandchildren) as they form families. I bet there will be a marked decrease in their birthrates. This has been a traditional trend in our country as the immigrant descendant's assimilate into our culture. That may also be a factor in a slower population growth rate.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Suburban Outcast » February 16th, 2014, 12:53 am

These projected population tables made the local city council where I live worried about if they could handle another 4,000 people by 2040. Honestly, I think Little Canada has quite a ton of space to fit another 4,000 within 30 years, because the northwest part is industrial and might be partly redeveloped someday probably.

I'm guessing they are expecting more people to live in 1st and 2nd ring suburbs by then (which is good to hear), cause those projects for many developed/nearly-developed suburbs seem to show healthy growth. If these projections are somewhat right (as of course they can't predict the future), the suburbs around me would have densities of 3-4,000 ppsm, and SLP would be similar to the current overall density levels in Minneapolis.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby mulad » February 18th, 2014, 12:34 pm

I'm a bit reluctant to develop industrial areas, since that's one type of zoning we actually need, and it's getting squeezed somewhat these days, but that northwest corner of Little Canada is probably a good spot to turn into a dense node. It has rail lines going in two directions, one to downtown St. Paul, and another that leads to the NE Diagonal Trail, which might be possible to turn into a link to downtown Minneapolis someday. But simply upzoning along Rice Street a bit farther south would be good too.

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Re: General Suburb News

Postby Anondson » February 19th, 2014, 9:02 pm

The Met Council published revised (more realistic?) population growth predictions for 2040. Link is a .pdf.

The suburban amounts are SIGNIFICANTLY less than the previous draft which had many inner ring suburbs adding +50% more in 30 years, but there are still ambitious growth forecasts for some already filled in suburbs.

Interesting that by 2040 Brooklyn Park is forecasted to be the third most populous municipality, surpassing Bloomington.

https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... 2017).aspx

(Thanks to whoever moved this to the proper thread!)

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby twincitizen » February 19th, 2014, 9:32 pm

twincitizen wrote:Met Council's preliminary 2040 estimates were:
Mpls: 488k
St Paul: 338k
Bloomington: 113k
Edina: 71k (wowzers! I guess Southdale-adjacent high rise apartment construction is only getting started)
St Louis Park: 68k
Newly revised estimates for those same cities:
Mpls: 464,900
St Paul: 334,700
Bloomington: 93,600
Edina: 53,300 (err...that's a pretty huge decrease)
St Louis Park: 54,500

Met Council has some 'splaining to do, especially on the last two there. I'm guessing the reason that St. Paul didn't see much change from the earlier numbers (compared to everyone else's huge decrease) is because of both the Green Line's potential and the fact that the apartment/densification boom currently happening in Minneapolis hasn't really taken off over in STP yet. It simply has to at some point.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Tcmetro » February 19th, 2014, 9:53 pm

To be honest, I thought the projections were unrealistic. I don't expect significant amounts of redevelopment in the inner suburbs, mainly as a lot of those areas are SFH, which have holy protections from the municipal comprehensive plan gods.

I have noticed an uptick in new suburban developments on the fringe, and I don't expect that to change too much. Perhaps there will be more townhomes, but sprawl nontheless.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » February 19th, 2014, 10:18 pm

Well yeah, I agree they were unrealistically high, but now the Edina and SLP numbers seem cautiously low.

SLP's 2012 estimate was 46,362, and that was before the opening of several recently completed apartment buildings (36Park, West End Flats, Ellipse 2, TowerLight) added hundreds more units. SLP is getting Southwest LRT, but also has limited land left to redevelop. Perhaps the new number is realistic.

The earlier Edina number was outrageously high, and has now been revised down to the point that it's lower than SLP...that just doesn't add up, especially with the way things are going around Southdale, and up and down France & Xerxes throughout the city.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Anondson » February 20th, 2014, 7:53 am

twincitizen wrote:The earlier Edina number was outrageously high, and has now been revised down to the point that it's lower than SLP...that just doesn't add up, especially with the way things are going around Southdale, and up and down France & Xerxes throughout the city.
Comparing zoning maps of Edina with SLP, SLP has greatly more area that could be realistically redeveloped or rezoned for density. That probably factored into the revised growth numbers.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby helsinki » May 31st, 2014, 4:11 am

There is a generally helpful summary and defense of the Metropolitan Council's 2040 plan (See: http://www.minnpost.com/cityscape/2014/ ... evelopment) at Minnpost. The plan itself is full of laudable goals, such as promoting denser development, conserving resources, maintaining existing infrastructure instead of building new infrastructure, etc.

The population growth projections by the Met Council, however, seem to belie these goals entirely. The 'Thrive MSP 2040' plan designates five areas of the metro from the center to the periphery. These are:

(1) Urban Center (Minneapolis, St. Paul, St. Louis Park, Richfield, for example);
(2) Urban (places like Bloomington, Brooklyn Center, Edina, and Golden Valley);
(3) Suburban (places like Burnsville, Eagan, Eden Prairie, Wayzata)
(4) Suburban Edge (places like Blaine, Chaska, Cottage Grove, Woodbury); and
(5) Emerging Suburban Edge (places like Chanhassen, Prior Lake, etc.)

Aside from the oddity of the designations (how and by what means and into what form Prior Lake will 'emerge' is beyond me) are the population projections skewed towards the periphery. These are:

(1) Urban Center - additional 162,000 residents, increase of 19%
(2) Urban - additional 56,000 residents, increase of 15%
(3) Suburban - additional 159,000 residents, increase of 22%
(4) Suburban Edge - additional 181,000 residents, increase of 42%
(5) Emerging Suburban Edge - additional 201,000 residents, increase of 66%

This seems entirely backwards. If the Met Council claims to have the ability to influence development patterns and if it's stated goal is denser infill development then why does it assume that the next 30 years are probably going to see 541,000 people move to utterly automobile dependent dispersed low density areas, while fewer than half as many, 218,000, will move to the core cities and their immediately adjacent pre-WWII suburbs? This prediction either assumes that the council has no ability to influence development, or it betrays the actual policies behind (and contrary to) the sustainability rhetoric, namely that additional sewer, water, and road construction will continue at the periphery and thereby facilitate ongoing sprawl.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » October 7th, 2014, 6:40 am

Edina City Manager (and Minneapolis resident & Audit Committee member) Scott Neal tweeted that Edina has already reached their 2020 population goal and is well on their way to hitting the 2040 goal (53,300) early, with One Southdale Place having just opened up and several more ~200-unit apartment complexes to come in the near future. Though I'm not sure what specifically prompted the tweet since the 2013 estimates have been out for a while, and 2014 estimates won't be released until early next year.

https://twitter.com/edinacityman/status ... 5834016768

hat tip: Anondson

EDIT: Noticed the older links to the 2040 estimates were all broken, so here's a current one: https://metrocouncil.org/Data-and-Maps/ ... 2017).aspx

Also, I've observed in my work at a first ring suburb, the estimate that the folks in charge really care about is the number of households, not the population forecast. This makes complete sense, as a community development professional working in a fully developed area, you need to know how many households you are expected to add, rather than worry about less predictable changes in household sizes and demographics.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby seanrichardryan » October 7th, 2014, 7:17 am

'We passed the 2020 forecast and on a related note, our next forcast goal for 2040 is this.'

Needing 4,300 more residents with an aging population and an ever popular low-density development pattern, I think the Thrive number is reasonable.
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » October 7th, 2014, 8:36 am

Over 25 years though? I'd imagine many more older Edina ramblers will be replaced with larger homes, housing larger families. Also, given when most Edina was developed, I'd also imagine some of those empty nester / widow households will be replaced by families. Overall, I'd expect the population of Edina's current single family housing stock to actually increase, or at worst stay even.

Meanwhile, each ~200-unit apartment complex will house at least 300 people. They're already building three of those (Southdale Place, 6725 York, Byerly's) with another possibly on the way at 7200 France. Then there's the Grandview District redevelopment and, of course, the remainder of Southdale's various outlots to be developed. To meet the 2040 goal, Edina needs to build roughly 9 more 200-unit buildings in a span of 25 years. I think that's conservatively reasonable.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Tcmetro » October 7th, 2014, 8:57 am

I do believe there was some sort of discussion with the Council where the inner suburbs thought that they were projected to receive too much growth and the outer suburbs thought they were projected to receive too little and the numbers were adjusted in accordance.

Edina is a different case than a lot of the other aging inner suburbs. Southdale in a major job center and has a lot of room (and demand) for redevelopment. Other neighborhoods in the city are considered to be some of the most coveted in the region, and aren't going to have a shortage of people looking to move in. Additionally, the city wants to redevelop pretty much all of the non-SFH areas, so there will probably be a lot of high-value multi family housing built in the coming years.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Anondson » October 24th, 2014, 8:36 am

Edina's city manager has a post attempting an explanation for the CWADS outrage over Met Council projections.

http://blogs.edinamn.gov/assumptions-matter/


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