Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

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EOst
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby EOst » October 24th, 2014, 8:53 am

Many of them believe the Met Council is making the urban core more desirable with new infrastructure and services at the cost of slowing down growth at the urban fringe in the five suburban counties.
Well, there it is, really.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » March 26th, 2015, 10:05 am

We don't have city-level estimates yet, but the Census Bureau has some county level estimates for 2014: http://www.startribune.com/local/297605721.html

(Met Council's 2014 estimates for each city come out in May. P.S. so excited for that!!!)

EDIT: Yeah I don't know where the actual estimates are. County level estimates for 2014 are not yet available here: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/27/27053.html It appears only the state-level 2014 estimates are live. Either way, I'm waaaaay more excited for the city-level stuff.

Mpls had just barely cracked 400k in the 2013 estimate, and that was towards the beginning of the boom (assuming the estimates are as of April 1, not year-end.) Most of the big apartment complexes were still under construction in April 2013. The 2014 estimate (coming in May) and the 2015 estimate (coming May 2016) will be really telling, given the massive number of units that have hit the market and leased up in that time frame.

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Nathan
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Nathan » March 26th, 2015, 10:41 am

Did I miss a place where they listed every county's growth rate? How do you write an article like than and not have a chart or table or something...

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby min-chi-cbus » March 26th, 2015, 11:49 am


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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby mulad » March 26th, 2015, 1:39 pm

I made a table of places I thought were interesting. Hennepin County had the biggest numerical change by far -- heck, there are 25 counties in the state that are smaller than 12,000 people...

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Minneapolis-St. Paul-St. Cloud CSA: 2013 pop. 2014 pop. Change %Change Hennepin 1,200,060 1,212,064 12,004 1.00% Ramsey 527,667 532,655 4,988 0.95% Dakota 408,829 412,529 3,700 0.91% Anoka 339,229 341,864 2,635 0.78% Washington 246,683 249,283 2,600 1.05% Stearns 152,098 152,912 814 0.54% Scott 137,603 139,672 2,069 1.50% Wright 128,298 129,918 1,620 1.26% Carver 95,644 97,338 1,694 1.77% Sherburne 90,197 91,126 929 1.03% St. Croix, WI 85,908 86,759 851 0.99% Rice 64,854 65,151 297 0.46% Chisago 53,789 54,025 236 0.44% Goodhue 46,416 46,423 7 0.02% Pierce, WI 40,733 40,958 225 0.55% Benton 39,250 39,506 256 0.65% Isanti 38,174 38,413 239 0.63% McLeod 35,953 35,882 -71 -0.20% Le Sueur 27,678 27,770 92 0.33% Mille Lacs 25,884 25,884 0 0.00% Sibley 15,058 14,918 -140 -0.93% Duluth-Superior: 2013 pop. 2014 pop. Change %Change St. Louis 200,763 200,949 186 0.09% Carlton 35,383 35,571 188 0.53% Douglas, WI 43,796 43,698 -98 -0.22% Fargo-Moorhead-Wahpeton: 2013 pop. 2014 pop. Change %Change Cass, ND 163,207 167,005 3,798 2.33% Clay 60,646 61,286 640 1.06% Richland, ND 16,321 16,432 111 0.68% Wilkin 6,550 6,495 -55 -0.84% Rochester: 2013 pop. 2014 pop. Change %Change Olmsted 149,232 150,287 1,055 0.71% Wabasha 21,462 21,362 -100 -0.47% Fillmore 20,825 20,776 -49 -0,24% Dodge 20,319 20,353 -34 -0.17% La Crosse: 2013 pop. 2014 pop. Change %Change La Crosse, WI 117,330 118,011 681 0.58% Houston 18,826 18,738 -88 -0.47% Grand Forks: 2013 pop. 2014 pop. Change %Change Burleigh, ND 69,311 70,138 827 1.19% Polk 31,703 31,704 1 0.00% Mankato-New Ulm: 2013 pop. 2014 pop. Change %Change Blue Earth 64,835 65,385 550 0.85% Nicollet 32,883 33,093 210 0.64% Brown 25,293 25,292 -1 0.00% Brainerd: 2013 pop. 2014 pop. Change %Change Crow Wing 63,125 63,265 140 0.22% Cass 28,527 28,559 32 0.11%

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » March 26th, 2015, 2:31 pm

Looks like these estimates are as of July 1, 2014. I wonder why the Census Bureau does that instead of sticking with April 1 like the actual decennial Census...

As I noted above, Met Council does their own estimates which are due out in a couple months. Supposedly the Met Council's numbers are believed to be more accurate (which makes sense, with them being the local experts)

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby xandrex » March 26th, 2015, 2:57 pm

You know, I would have guessed Hennepin would have grown by more than 12,000 folks. Weren't we talking about Minneapolis alone shooting up nearly that amount? I swear people on this forum have been guessing that.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby MNdible » March 26th, 2015, 3:04 pm

But remember that Hennepin County is vast, so at the same time that Minneapolis is building apartment units, you've got older suburbs where houses used to hold five family members, but now just host a couple of empty nesters.

As I've said before, demographics and family size have a much bigger impact on the population size of mature cities than new construction does.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » March 26th, 2015, 3:15 pm

July 1, 2012: 392,880 - 2 year gain of 10,3012 since 2010
July 1, 2013: 400,070 - 1 year gain of 7,190 since 2012
July 1, 2014: ???

You're right though, Minneapolis' 2013-2014 gain will likely be >6,000, or at least half of Hennepin County's growth.

Also, what MNdible said. Some parts of the 2nd ring suburbs are probably pretty hollowed out right now with concentrations of baby boomers & seniors who haven't moved out of the empty nest yet. The first ring (postwar) suburbs all went through this a generation ago.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby xandrex » March 27th, 2015, 8:45 am

I mean, I figured that plenty of second-ring suburbs would be hollowing out, but I would have assumed (wrongly, I'm now seeing) that urban and inner-ring growth would have picked up a little more of the slack (given that places like Edina, St. Louis Park, GV, for instance are mature suburbs and have seen a decent number of apartment projects pop up - okay, most of that was SLP, but some spillover elsewhere).

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Re: Latest Census Estimates - 2013

Postby twincitizen » April 15th, 2015, 12:03 pm

twincitizen wrote:
twincitizen wrote:Met Council's preliminary 2040 estimates are out: http://www.metrocouncil.org/News-Events ... ea-gr.aspx

Mpls: 488k
St Paul: 338k
Bloomington: 113k
Edina: 71k (wowzers! I guess Southdale-adjacent high rise apartment construction is only getting started)
St Louis Park: 68k
Newly revised estimates for those same cities:
Mpls: 464,900
St Paul: 334,700
Bloomington: 93,600
Edina: 53,300 (err...that's a pretty huge decrease)
St Louis Park: 54,500
Following up on my posts from last year and earlier, numbers have been revised down even lower in these newly updated 2040 estimates:

Mpls: 449,400
St Paul: 334,100
Bloomington: 91,800
Edina: 50,800
St Louis Park: 51,300

Added context: Mpls numbers for 2020 and 2030 are 419,600 and 432,400, respectively. Seems pretty realistic/reasonable to me. We might be somewhere in the vicinity of 410,000 at some point this year, depending on how many of these new units get filled. Census will be conducted 5 years from today (minus two weeks). That would mean growth of about 2,500 residents per year in years 2016-2020. Still a pretty rapid clip, even if slower than 2010-2015 boom.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby WHS » April 15th, 2015, 1:29 pm

The Met Council has a well-documented tendency to overestimate growth in the core areas; not surprised they're having to revise those predictions downwards.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby phop » April 15th, 2015, 2:41 pm

WHS wrote:The Met Council has a well-documented tendency to overestimate growth in the core areas; not surprised they're having to revise those predictions downwards.
Looks to me like they overcompensated downward for the suburbs at least.

These are 2013 census estimates:

Bloomington: 86,319 (3426 people added since 2010, but only projected to add another 5481 over the next 27 years.)
Edina: 49,376 (1435 added 2010-13, 1424 additional 2014-2040)
St. Louis Park: 47,411 (2161 added 2010-2013, 3889 additional 2014-2040)

I think an optimistic, but not unrealistic possibility could be that all three reach the 2040 goals before 2020.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » April 15th, 2015, 3:01 pm

I'll note that those 2013 estimates also seem pretty rosy, at least for some communities.

But the idea that Edina would only add roughly 1400 residents between July 2013 and April 2020 is nuts. That 1400 person increase includes the >600 apartment units under construction or proposed right now. That's near 1000 residents alone, and it's pretty clear that more mixed-use development is going to occur in the Southdale area. I wouldn't be surprised if another 500 or 600 units were completed by 2020, adding another 1000 residents, and that's just the Southdale area. There's also Grandview and other areas that could see new residential development.

I think they may have adjusted down too far for these particular 1st-ring suburbs, which should all see continued demand, both for new multi-family housing and for the existing single-family housing stock. These are well-located burbs near tons of high-paying jobs and they are all well past that "1st-generation drag" that affected 1st-ring burbs in the late 70s, 80s, etc. as the first generation of homeowners aged and remained in their homes after the kids left, dragging down the population counts. The populations of all of these communities are much more mixed/stable with a variety of ages of families living in the homes. They're not likely to see that huge drag again - though it will begin to strike the developed 2nd ring suburbs much more in the 2020 Census.

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Nick
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Nick » April 15th, 2015, 3:38 pm

City level estimates for 2014 are supposed to come out next month, I'd be pretty surprised if Minneapolis is below 405,000. Would be a fun pool (!)

Do demographers have a better crystal ball than meteorologists?

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby min-chi-cbus » April 16th, 2015, 8:11 am

Since there are nearly 20,000 residential units in the pipeline (proposed, approved, under construction or completed) right now in Minneapolis, and if only 50% of those get completed by 2018, that SHOULD amount to a population increase of at least 10,000 people using conservative measures, but easily more. I wouldn't be surprised if up to 20,000 or 25,000 residents were added to the existing population, which some say is between 400K and 405K. That'd put the city population at between 420K and 430K by 2020. And if you were to extrapolate TwinCitizen's year-over-year growth to date from 2010, the city would add at least 5,000 residents per year, or 50,000 per decade. I'm not sure I see that rate of growth occuring, but somewhere inbetween perhaps. I also feel that SLP and Edina will continue to lead inner-ring suburban growth and redevelopment, and can see moderate increases for both of those as well -- perhaps a 25% or up to 50% increase in population in 25 years.

If you look at the metro area as a whole, the metro tends to add around 10% and sometimes up to 15% more residents per decade, or in current figures, 35,000 to 45,000 residents per year. If 50% of that figure decides to live in the core counties and cities (like the aforementioned Mpls, St. Paul, Edina and SLP), that would indicate that at least 15,000 to 25,000 people are being added per year. So the chances that Minneapolis sees about 5K of that subtotal per year doesn't seem so unbelievable to me.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Anondson » April 16th, 2015, 10:23 am

What are the revised forecasts down the SWLRT line, Hopkins, Mtka, EP?

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Wedgeguy » April 16th, 2015, 10:26 am

While family sizes have gone down since the hey day of MPLS huge numbers, the rise of micro apartments, in a way a new more suitable version of rooming houses which in the past helped to allow for the large population of single person living, will greatly increase density in the city. When you have market rate apartment with studios and alcove in a decent number it will make it easier to increase population density. Just looking at the number of units in the Apartment tower that is proposed next to WCCO. I see more of these coming, but I still think that there is a limited market for these small units. They are similar to a starter home for first timers.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » April 16th, 2015, 10:33 am

Anondson wrote:What are the revised forecasts down the SWLRT line, Hopkins, Mtka, EP?

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Municipality (2013 est) 2020 2030 2040 Hopkins (18,025) 18,900 19,400 19,900 Minnetonka (51,368) 53,200 58,000 61,500 Eden Prairie (62,603) 67,900 75,200 82,400

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby grant1simons2 » April 16th, 2015, 11:57 am

Hopkins will grow much larger than predicted, I guarantee it. They have a great chance to build out of their current downtown and really increase density.

Eden Prairie is not going to move to that number without more apartments and total re-zoning of parts of town. If the mall someday fails in the future, I hope there's a developer with a wonderful small area plan for that spot. Currently the city is running out of room for single family housing. If they keep building where they're building, mostly near the bluffs, they'll run into some major problems in the future with snow melt and rain. There are already some failures happening near Purgatory Creek. I have some ideas for the city but I'd rather focus on Minneapolis right now.


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