Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

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acs
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby acs » May 18th, 2015, 11:30 am

twincitizen wrote:At the very least, by the time the next census and redistricting rolls around, the core cities won't lose any more seats in the legislature, which they haven't been able to say for probably 60 years. Whether or not Mpls and/or St. Paul could gain a seat back remains to be seen.
It's almost assured that the losses will come from outstate MN, especially the deeply rural areas.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby RailBaronYarr » May 18th, 2015, 12:52 pm

Kinda hard to see how Minneapolis won't exceed the October 2014 forecasts the Met Council put out there. We're only 13k away from the 2020 number (424,700) with 6 years of growth to go. I wonder how many units are permitted/under construction? There are 3,500 units just in downtown/St Anthony.

min-chi-cbus
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby min-chi-cbus » May 18th, 2015, 1:48 pm

There's a whole bunch of units proposed, approved, and under construction in Minneapolis.....it's more of a question of whether or not they'll all be built AND occupied.

I don't know if I'm looking into this too deeply, but I noticed that the 2014 data is only through April 1, meaning it's literally been 1/3 of the decade so far, and not 4 years, or 2/5 of the decade, which is how I bet most people are running their numbers. On the flip side, is the 2010 metric using Jan 1, 2010; April 1, 2010, or Dec 31, 2010 data? It makes a fairly big difference. For example, 28,000 people added to Minneapolis in 4 years brings it to a 70,000 addition over 10 years, but if Mpls grew by 28,000 over 3.3 years, then you could extrapolate decennial growth at 85,000 people instead. Same with the metro population growth: 128,000 people added in 4 years is 32,000 people per year or 11% per decade, on average, but 128,000 people added in 3.3 years is more like 42,500 people per year, which is almost 15% per decade. Or worse, if it's grown 128,000 people in 4.5 years, then the decennial rate is less than 10%, which is just sad.

If that's all true, that's fairly impressive growth, and much stronger than I was led to believe based on previous population estimates and discussions. Also, it sounds like growth was somewhat stymied in 2010, 2011 and 2012, but started really picking up in 2013. The question is, which year is most representative of the state of the metro in the 2010's? I'm hoping it's more like 2013 than 2010.

*EDIT* It sounds like the Census is always pegged to April 1, meaning 4 years, not 3.3 or 4.5. Kinda a bummer for me, but we'll see what, if anything, changes moving forward.
Last edited by min-chi-cbus on May 18th, 2015, 2:02 pm, edited 3 times in total.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby HiawathaGuy » May 18th, 2015, 1:52 pm

RailBaronYarr wrote:
xandrex wrote:New 2014 estimates are up. Minneapolis population at 411,286.

http://www.metrocouncil.org/METC/files/ ... 6fbf1c.pdf
At the average growth rate since 2010, Minneapolis would hit 500k by the middle of 2026. I'm not claiming the growth will continue or that 500k is a laudable goal, just saying.
It's great to see both Minneapolis and St. Paul increasing so well! St. Paul's population grew by 5.1 percent over the four years to 299,641, while Minneapolis' grew by 7.5 percent to 411,286.

FWIW, the metro area population (as defined by the US Census, shown below), is now: 3,467,406.

Image

I used the Census quickfacts website: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/maps/m ... a_map.html and this website: http://proximityone.com/metros/2013/cbsa33460.htm to tally those up.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 18th, 2015, 1:54 pm

It is entirely possible that the yearly estimates and decennial projections are done with different methodologies.
The annual stuff is probably just a more complex version of: 2010 census + (occupied units added * average hh size).

I'll also note that the future projections have been revised downward not once but twice in recent years. I'd suspect that some inner burbs with booming multi-family construction like Edina & SLP will exceed their projections as well.
A month ago, I wrote:Following up on my posts from last year and earlier, numbers have been revised down even lower in these newly updated 2040 estimates:

Mpls: 449,400
St Paul: 334,100
Bloomington: 91,800
Edina: 50,800
St Louis Park: 51,300

Added context: Mpls numbers for 2020 and 2030 are 419,600 and 432,400, respectively. Seems pretty realistic/reasonable to me. We might be somewhere in the vicinity of 410,000 at some point this year, depending on how many of these new units get filled. Census will be conducted 5 years from today (minus two weeks). That would mean growth of about 2,500 residents per year in years 2016-2020. Still a pretty rapid clip, even if slower than 2010-2015 boom.

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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby mattaudio » May 18th, 2015, 2:06 pm

Ok, it's just nuts that our MSA...
-Touches St. Peter (across the MN River)
-Includes a tiny sliver of Mankato (northern tip of airport property)
-Includes Maiden Rock, WI but not Red Wing, MN a half hour closer
-Includes part of St. Cloud
-Includes half of Lake Mille Lacs

acs
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby acs » May 18th, 2015, 2:09 pm

Ok, I've thrown in last years estimates and added columns for the YOY total growth, YOY growth rate, and 4 year growth rate. What's the best way to post an excel spreadsheet?

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Anondson
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Anondson » May 18th, 2015, 2:14 pm

Any of you spreadsheet jockeys care to whip up a list according to percentage increase? Just curious. :D

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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby FranklinAveFixation » May 18th, 2015, 2:28 pm

^Time to expand Met Council's turf!

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby HiawathaGuy » May 18th, 2015, 2:49 pm

Anondson wrote:Any of you spreadsheet jockeys care to whip up a list according to percentage increase? Just curious. :D
The Pioneer Press article has a good spreadsheet of the metro counties:
http://www.twincities.com/localnews/ci_ ... since-2010

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 18th, 2015, 2:54 pm

I don't care what the US Census Bureau says, the "metro area" to me is always the 7-county area. Sure it cuts out some areas that are obviously part of the Twin Cities metro, like Albertville-St. Michael-Otsego-Elk River, but it also includes a whole bunch of farmland in outlying Carver and Dakota Counties that are very much not part of the metro area in form or function. So there's sort of a tradeoff there, but the 7-county area is still about as good a definition as you can get. The rest are all way, way too broad. If there was a definition of the metro that included the 7-county area plus the mostly contiguous suburbanized areas of Wright & Sherburne Counties, I'd go for that.

EDIT / Part 2:

7-county area just barely missed 3 million... 2,977,455. Ought to be right around or just over 3 mil next year.
That round number makes it really easy to run some quick percentages if you're wondering how large a share of the metro a particular city or county makes up.
St. Paul is about 10% of the metro. Mpls-StP together are still under 25% of the metro (yikes...)

acs
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby acs » May 18th, 2015, 2:57 pm

FISHMANPET wrote: A few changes I'd be OK with:
Zoning has to be contiguous. If you wanna upzone or downzone a lot, you have to also rezone every lot on that block (or maybe every lot facing the same street on that block would be more appropriate, but same difference).
Zoning has to be graduated. R1 can only border R2 can only border R3 etc etc. R1 can only border C1 or C2, R2 can border C1, C2, or C3, R3 can border C2, C3, C4, R4 can border C3 or C4, R5 and above can only border C4. You can move those boundaries around a bit but the general point still stands.
I generally agree with you this is how it should work, but in many cases you're going to run into problems with too many different zoning levels and not enough space. There's just too many levels of commercial to step down all the way from C4 to R whatever without taking up a huge amount of space.

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FISHMANPET
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby FISHMANPET » May 18th, 2015, 3:20 pm

Replied here because that part of the conversation has moved: https://forum.streets.mn/viewtopic.php?f=14& ... 751#p89751

twincitizen
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 18th, 2015, 3:52 pm

For some reason I believed (and posted previously) that Met Council projections were as of July 1 each year, rather than April 1 like the decennial Census. Obviously keeping it on April 1 makes way more sense, for consistency's sake.

Can anyone find hard evidence that Met Council's estimates are indeed taken on April 1 of each year?

Also, I'll just remind everyone that the numbers released today are
A. Preliminary, subject to review by each city/county. Final #s come out in July I believe.
B. 2014 estimates, meaning that the numbers are already one year old. Fast growing cities can probably be extrapolated if you're dying to make a guess what the population is right now in this very moment.

EDIT: Here's the methodology for the annual estimates: http://www.metrocouncil.org/METC/files/ ... 8c97df.pdf

acs
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby acs » May 18th, 2015, 9:21 pm

Alright here you guys go. Sorry it took a while.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

min-chi-cbus
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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby min-chi-cbus » May 19th, 2015, 8:03 am

I'm SHOCKED that the 2013-14 period was below average growth (26.6K increase), vs. the 2010-13 average rates (33.8K increase, on avg.)! I would have expected 2013-14 to show much higher growth, relative to the dull 2010-11 post-recession periods. Is there any chance that 2013-14 does not include 12 months (but less)??

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 19th, 2015, 8:34 am

It's true that multi-family construction didn't really get going until 2012-13 (very few projects were under construction when UrbanMSP started in June 2012). However, looking across the 7-county region (the numbers you posted) you have to think about the thousands of vacant and foreclosed homes that were available throughout 2010-today. There was a ton of existing housing stock sitting unoccupied at the tail end of the recession in 2010.

If you look at Minneapolis specifically, the 2013-14 growth of 10,348 smokes the 2010-13 annual average of 6,120. Those numbers support what you were expecting - tepid growth post recession and much more rapid growth in the last year or two. But yeah, region-wide I would guess that the multifamily explosion still pales in comparison to the number of existing units that have been occupied (driving both single-fam and multi-fam vacancy rates to all-time lows). Even in Minneapolis, I'm sure that a significant share of our recent population growth has been accommodated by driving down vacancy rates at existing apartments. For example, if there are 100,000 existing multi-family units in Minneapolis and you drive down the vacancy rate from 6% to 2%, that's 4,000 units occupied.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby twincitizen » May 21st, 2015, 1:33 pm

MPR with a story, which apparently uses US Census Bureau estimates (and July 1, 2014, not April 1...apparently): http://www.mprnews.org/story/2015/05/21/census-data

So the Census Bureau and Met Council are each doing independent annual estimates? Down to the City level? Why?

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby Anondson » May 21st, 2015, 1:38 pm

twincitizen wrote:MPR with a story, which apparently uses US Census Bureau estimates (and July 1, 2014, not April 1...apparently): http://www.mprnews.org/story/2015/05/21/census-data

So the Census Bureau and Met Council are each doing independent annual estimates? Down to the City level? Why?
Wonder who has the history of greater accuracy for twin cities growth estimates. Gut feeling, the Met Council.

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Re: Latest Census Estimates and Met Council Projections

Postby MNdible » May 21st, 2015, 1:56 pm

I suppose they're already doing modeling to track growth, so it doesn't take much to have the spreadsheets spit out a report once a year.


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