Minneapolis & St. Paul Fantasies and Speculations

[Nick]

http://minnescraper.com.s28223.gridserv ... 677#p32460

[TWA]

Last statistics I saw, for Q1 of 2013, was that class A office space in downtown had a 10.8% vacancy rate, which is really quite good. The market could support a couple projects- like this Ryan/WF project and the Hines development (I personally still think that will happen, and go-ahead will be soon). Another personal belief is that there will be another condo development upcoming. I have absolutely zero insider information on that one, just know that the supply of condos is pretty thin and demand for living downtown is rising fast, and will be even hotter in a couple years when the project would be finished.

[MS3]

Being in the construction business, I've heard multiple rumors of a large condo project brewing- but I've been hearing about this for over 3 yrs now. As far as class A office space goes, Large cities see cranes when class A vacancy is 10%. No hesitation. I expect proposals soon. We haven't had a tower over 500 ft since 1992. That is hard to believe.

[John]

I know the inventory of downtown condos for sale is declining, but I'm not sure of the exact statistics. Anecdotally, the small number of condos for sale in my building appear to sell at a good clip. The property values in my building have stabilized over the last couple years, and the value of my place will likely go up slightly next year ( however, still much lower in value as compared to when I bought it in 2007). What I would really like to see are a few smaller infill projects to replace the vacant lots in The North Loop, Mill District, and around Lunds at 12th and Hennepin. We still have many gaps in the built environment and we need to continue to fill them in. As far as a high rise condo project, I think it would work better in a multi-use project in the business core with a modest number condos built on the top floors to allow for the amenity of views.

[kregger22]

Maybe I missed this - what is the office vacancy rate currently?

[mamundsen]

^Look up 3 posts...

Last statistics I saw, for Q1 of 2013, was that class A office space in downtown had a 10.8% vacancy rate

[kregger22]

Ok, so let's get down to brass tacks here for this Fantasies & Speculations Thread. There are some people on this site with amazing insights into what is or might happen with development in Minneapolis, and many of us are clammering for more height (I understand not everyone feels this way)and realize specifics can't be necessarily be desseminated. But with an informal pole, it would be nice to get a take on who here thinks what about the 2 questions below:

Who thinks we'll have a building announced this year over 500ft?

Who thinks we'll have a building announced this year or next to become the new tallest building in Minneapolis?

[RailBaronYarr]

Given the stat on class A office space, I'll say "neither."

[nordeast homer]

I don't know. I'm as skeptical as anyone, but the last time we had vacancies hovering around 10% we got a couple of new buildings. I guess I could see something in the 500 ft range, I don't know that we'll see a 'tallest' just yet.

[min-chi-cbus]

A. Yes
B. No (beyond next year at the earliest, if ever)

[nasa35]

A. Yes
B. No (beyond next year at the earliest, if ever)

This magnitude of theses types of development takes time. I can tell you that you are mistaken.

[MS3]

I back nasa35. The hardest part is predicting when, with all the rumors and insights.

[min-chi-cbus]

A. Yes
B. No (beyond next year at the earliest, if ever)

This magnitude of theses types of development takes time. I can tell you that you are mistaken.

Okay......I change my answer to:

A. No
B. No


If you know something, instead of being cute about it just state what you know. BTW, this negates your proclaimation that "something big" is on the horizon....I think you have your answer, kregger22.

[John]

Downtown Minneapolis is economically surging with an explosion in development and investment in infrastructure. The vacancy rate for class A office space is about 10%, which is much lower than most cities. There will be no new class A office space built for at least several years. It's no secret there are many, many local companies looking for new space, not to mention the possibility of foreign businesses having a presence here. Hmmm...sounds like a recipe for some very large projects.

[min-chi-cbus]

Downtown Minneapolis is economically surging with an explosion in development and investment in infrastructure. The vacancy rate for class A office space is about 10%, which is much lower than most cities. There will be no new class A office space built for at least several years. It's no secret there are many, many local companies looking for new space, not to mention the possibility of foreign businesses having a presence here. Hmmm...sounds like a recipe for some very large projects.

But apparently not anytime soon...

[MotorCity2TwinCities]

I think we will get a large (400+) condo project proposed before anything commercial but what do I know.

EDIT: 400ft+ not 500

[John]

Downtown Minneapolis is economically surging with an explosion in development and investment in infrastructure. The vacancy rate for class A office space is about 10%, which is much lower than most cities. There will be no new class A office space built for at least several years. It's no secret there are many, many local companies looking for new space, not to mention the possibility of foreign businesses having a presence here. Hmmm...sounds like a recipe for some very large projects.

But apparently not anytime soon...

No, the boom is already happening. Office tower projects are just an off-shoot of the current building boom. The growth in downtown is not just residential. There are countless projects going on downtown ranging from cultural, sports, retail, LRT lines, parks, entertainment ect. Office space is merely going to play "catch up".

[min-chi-cbus]

Here's my question:

The North Loop is increasingly becoming a family friendly urban neighborhood, but unfortunately, that living option just not financially possible for the overwhelming majority.

When will the market meet the demand for housing in the core so that it becomes a feasible choice for non-execs/doctors/lawyers like me to afford a space to raise a family in? (Unfortunately not soon enough for me to make that decision.)

Halleujah!!!

[TWA]

The trend for vacancy rates downtown is extremely promising and all developers know that. For all we know, some out of town developer has a project in the works already. They know it takes almost 2 years for a project to fully come on line. However, lenders and developers are wary of pure spec builds, so you have to think that the hardest part will be getting a major tenant to anchor this new space. I am sure that something will get announced soon.

[kregger22]

John - I am confused by your statement that there is roughly a 10% vacancy rate on class A office space along with many local & foreign companies looking for new space which sounds like a recipe for very large projects... But then you also say "There will be no new class A office space built for at least several years." It seems like those are two statements that fly in the face of each other - would you mind explaining what you mean?