2014 Election

[mplsjaromir]

They actually have better/stronger candidates than in 2012, in Walker and Christie. They have their warts (obviously), but at least they have a pulse and personality, unlike Romney or the other 2012 losers. The scary thing is that at least two of Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, and Rand Paul will be involved, pulling the conversation far to the right, just as the TP did with Romney two years ago. Though that actually seemed to benefit Democrats, having the eventual Repub nominee pulled too far from center.

I'm sorry, I don't want Hillary. I don't care that polls well today against a generic or is most likely to win...I want someone with new ideas, someone that won't be in their mid-70s in 2020 when standing for reelection. That said, nominating a white woman is a slam dunk for the Democrats... even though Elizabeth Warren is probably too liberal for the country as a whole, I still think she'd win due to demographics of the electorate in 2016.

EDIT: Bush vs. Clinton in 2016 would mean a lot of people just stay home...because, gross. Nobody wants royal families in America.

Walker is a dud, and there nothing one can point to that makes him a strong candidate. No keystone legislation, no personality, another version of T-Paw. Anyone that would find Walker appealing would find JEB doubly. The patina of GWB presidency is starting to look nice to more than a few Republicans. Christie is too rotund to be a viable candidate, it should not make a difference but in modern politics image matters.

Hillary is Republican-lite. A war hawk and a vacuous neo-liberal economically. Very disappointing.

[mattaudio]

Maybe this could be split into a 2016 Presidential Election thread?

[twincitizen]

Here's something on the gubernatorial races in IL & MD: http://www.cnn.com/2014/11/05/politics/ ... index.html

So Colorado elected a GOP Senator, but kept their incumbent Dem Governor. IL, MI & MA re-elected their Dem Senators by wide margins, but elected GOP Governors. Maryland elected a GOP Governor for no explicable reason...their retiring 2-term Dem Governor was very popular.

MA is a clear case of a terrible candidate (Coakley) and needs no further explanation. For IL, I guess Pat Quinn was just really unpopular, as his challenger won all over the state.

Either way, a lot of split ticket voting went on in all of these states.

Also, some of the polling this year was clearly slanted toward Democrats, particularly in the NC Senate race and in Kansas. Reliably red Kansas looked like a strong possibility to elect an independent Senator and a Democratic Governor, due to frustration with both incumbents, especially Brownback. And GA wasn't anywhere near as close as polls projected.

[David Greene]

So 2016... Scott Walker vs. Hillary Clinton? Is she really the best we've got??

No, but it's "her time." I would love to see a Warren/Sanders ticket!

The 2016 presidential election is looking to be a repeat of 2004: the Dems nominate an absolutely boring, terrible candidate and get their asses handed to them.

[David Greene]

So voters hate republican policies, but vote for their candidates anyways? IT DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.

Only if you're thinking like a policy wonk. People don't vote for candidates based on policy. They vote based on "values" and other nebulous things. This is what the Democrats have failed to understand for 30 years or more. The Republicans win when they can get voters angry. They won not because of policy but because they made people angry at Obama. The Dems need to grow a spine and make people angry about the right things.

[mattaudio]

Or people need to grow a brain and start thinking for themselves (being fearful means someone else is thinking for you) regardless of party. Fear is the enemy.

[mullen]

so you think the first viable female candidate at the top of the ticket would be boring?

she beats every repub handily, even jeb bush who will have the baggage of his brother to contend with.

hillary clinton has been through the political wars and knows well how to take on republicans. and she'll be our next president if she chooses to run. there is a reason why republicans loathe the clintons. i could even see amy klobuchar being vetted for the vice presidency. an all female ticket of those two would be viable.

i admire elizabeth warren and bernie sanders but he would be torn to shreds by republicans and their media partners.

[David Greene]

Or people need to grow a brain and start thinking for themselves (being fearful means someone else is thinking for you) regardless of party. Fear is the enemy.

Well, sure, but that's not how the human mind works. Lakoff lays all of this out very nicely,.

[David Greene]

so you think the first viable female candidate at the top of the ticket would be boring?

From an actually getting something positive done perspective, absolutely. From an election perspective, I don't know that a female presidential candidate is the big news it would have been a decade ago. We've now had two female vice presidential candidates and numerous women in various top political positions. Yes, it's certainly newsworthy but I wonder if the "here we go again, another Clinton" message would eat into it.

People were excited for Obama way beyond his skin color, even if he failed to deliver on a lot of the hopes and dreams associated with him. The base was excited because he was someone who came from the world of organizing and has grounding in what people on the streets are dealing with. This is also why that same base is now pretty disillusioned with the party. Obama's biggest disappointment for me is the complete waste of the organizing and engagement infrastructure he put together. They should have been building that up all through his terms. Instead they simply discarded it after the 2008 election.

The base is not at all excited about Clinton. Sure, some facets of the party are very excited but the actual people doing the groundwork that I talk to all roll their eyes at the prospect of a Clinton campaign.

[MN Fats]

If Jeb decides to run I don't see how he doesn't get the nom. He's got built-in fundraising. He's a more eloquent speaker than W. and also can speak fluent Spanish, which obviously would help pull in some votes.

[ECtransplant]

A Jeb Hillary race could be exactly what the country needs to get a viable third option. Probably not. But maybe.

[fehler]

Republicans made this an anti-Obama campaign. The Democrats reinforced this by distancing themselves from Obama. The pro-Obama had no where to go.

I'm not worried about a 2004 style campaign, I'm worried about a 2000/2008-style. Where the incumbent party's candidate serves to reinforce the opposition's message by distancing themselves from the incumbent (either Clinton-Gore or Bush-McCain). He got elected twice, embrace it, and run with it. Whoever the Democratic candidate is, they better be prepared to stand next to Obama and say they voted for him.

[nate]

Any ideas on what kind of mischief a newly Republican House, elected thanks to a near-sweep of sparsely-populated rural districts and pledging to push back on those "Minneapolis and St Paul legislators" might wreak on some of our favorite transportation projects?

[mattaudio]

Republicans made this an anti-Obama campaign. The Democrats reinforced this by distancing themselves from Obama. The pro-Obama had no where to go.

I'm not worried about a 2004 style campaign, I'm worried about a 2000/2008-style. Where the incumbent party's candidate serves to reinforce the opposition's message by distancing themselves from the incumbent (either Clinton-Gore or Bush-McCain). He got elected twice, embrace it, and run with it. Whoever the Democratic candidate is, they better be prepared to stand next to Obama and say they voted for him.

This is a good point, and I wonder how that advice would work out nationally. Here in MN, Dayton ran on his own (imperfect) record, but pointed out what he's done for four years rather than distancing himself or apologizing for it. Clearly that strategy worked.

[mplsjaromir]

Franken and Nolan also seemed to understand that the main reason for voting DFL is because they (claim to) prioritize the working/middle class. This may offend some of the temporarily embarrassed millionaires who find class conflict uncouth, but it is the way to win elections. The GOP is masterful at empty platitudes and fear mongering, the DFL won't win with just the empty platitudes.

[acs]

Any ideas on what kind of mischief a newly Republican House, elected thanks to a near-sweep of sparsely-populated rural districts and pledging to push back on those "Minneapolis and St Paul legislators" might wreak on some of our favorite transportation projects?

Best case scenario I see is MoveMN passing and everybody gets what they want and pays for it, even if it means more freeways to nowhere. Worst case scenario is the house blocks everything but increased MNDOT bonding and it takes a miracle coalition to get state funds for SWLRT at most. Looks like another 10 years before another LRT corridor is built. Now, there's a long distance between the two and it all comes down to how much the house follows the party line and how hard the metro DFL'ers push.

[ECtransplant]

Honestly, I'm ok with the trains to cornfields and suburban big box stores being delayed. I'm most disappointed in that I assume this kills any hope of getting all the aBRT lines up and running quickly. If the Republicants actually do kill SWLRT, can we start talking about 3C again?

[mattaudio]

And just to Hopkins?

[MNdible]

Man, I should just start writing your material for you all.

[the other scott]

I would love to see a Warren/Sanders ticket!

The 2016 presidential election is looking to be a repeat of 2004: the Dems nominate an absolutely boring, terrible candidate and get their asses handed to them.

I too would love to see a Warren/Sanders ticket. (How old is Bernie anyway? Could that be a liability?) I disagree about comparing 2016 to 2004 though. 2004 had an incumbent who had started 2 wars and could run on the "don't change horses in midstream" meme. For many voters, he still had the patina of standing on the rubble of WTC with a bullhorn looking leadery. 2016 has no incumbent. Dems still need to put up a compelling candidate (and I'm not sure that is Hillary), and if they do, I think they'll win handily.