Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Introductions - Urban Issues - Miscellaneous News, Topics, Interests
twincitizen
Moderator
Posts: 6261
Joined: May 31st, 2012, 7:27 pm
Location: Standish-Ericsson

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby twincitizen » November 15th, 2016, 8:18 am

http://www.startribune.com/twin-cities- ... 401126695/
http://finance-commerce.com/2016/11/eag ... in-cities/

October market update. More of the same: rates are still low, lots of Millennials are ready to buy starter homes (defined as $190-250k by both articles), not enough people are selling said homes.

For whatever reason, you never see any solutions proposed (other than building more houses 30-40 miles from the city). What about building affordable rentals and co-ops targeted at low-income seniors that will sell their lower-end homes? Obviously that would require government subsidy, but even getting another 500 houses or so on the market in each St. Paul and Minneapolis would make a difference in the market. And it would help a bunch of senior singles who are physically unable to care for their homes. Anyone know if you can split out ACS data to see how many seniors (say, age 75+) are living alone in SFHs in Minneapolis?

QuietBlue
Target Field
Posts: 540
Joined: September 14th, 2012, 8:50 am

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby QuietBlue » November 15th, 2016, 11:17 am

I don't know; after looking up homes for sale in Minneapolis/St. Paul and close in, it seems like the starter home* inventory is tight but not unworkable, especially if you are willing to go out a little ways.

I think people's expectations have gotten out of whack, honestly, when it comes to starter homes. If someone expects a 3+BR SFH with fully updated finishes, no or minimal repairs needed, good access to transit, and shops/restaurants within walking distance, then yeah, it's going to cost them in 2016, because a lot of other people want that too. If a buyer isn't willing to be flexible, that is going to limit their options.

* Which I'm defining here as less than $250K and two or more bedrooms.

User avatar
mister.shoes
Wells Fargo Center
Posts: 1291
Joined: November 26th, 2012, 10:22 am

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby mister.shoes » November 15th, 2016, 2:00 pm

I think QB nails it: the interpretation of "starter" has changed significantly. In my head, a starter home is small (2 BR / 1.5 BA) and probably needs some work. Anyone expecting 3+ / 2+ and catalog-quality finishes isn't actually looking for starter, whether it's their first home purchase or not.
The problem with being an introvert online is that no one knows you're just hanging out and listening.

RailBaronYarr
Capella Tower
Posts: 2702
Joined: September 16th, 2012, 4:31 pm

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby RailBaronYarr » November 15th, 2016, 4:11 pm

To pile on, it's a *lot* easier to meet the needs of a young person, couple, or even small family (1 kid, or 0 kids and 1-2 pets-as-kids) looking to buy rather than rent. 2BR and 1.5 BA (half for people visiting) meets that need. ADUs, carving out a SFH to duplex, a fourplex, even a 20-unit condo/co-op building could meet that need, brand-new for around $250k. But there are lots of people who buy their first home with 3-4 BRs with the intention of it being a "starter" and then sell and move when they have their first or second kid (I will admit I'm letting my white, well-off background and facebook feed/friend anecdotes feed this impression!!). Beyond just 65+ year-olds living in their urban or first-ring single family home, I'm interested in how many people could have reasonably stayed in an apartment building a little longer, or could have moved into something in between a 1-BR unit and a 3+ BR home. And I will fully take blame for this! We moved into our Mpls house (3BR, 1.5BA, added a master, has room for expansion in the basement) with just an infant (+ 2 goldens), when renting a 2-3BR unit in a small building in our neighborhood would have worked just fine for us for a couple more years.

But yeah, lotta boomers who have kids in their 20s, and don't want to sell said kids' childhood home because hey 3x a year you need space to host them on holidays and whatnot, plus who wants to live in a stack and pack apartment once you've retired, right?

LakeCharles
Foshay Tower
Posts: 847
Joined: January 16th, 2014, 8:34 am
Location: Kingfield

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby LakeCharles » December 3rd, 2016, 5:14 pm

Not sure where this belongs, but the Trib did a comparison of total city taxes for Minneapolis vs. St. Paul.

http://www.startribune.com/do-public-se ... 404315596/

The result being that for a house valued at $180k, St. Paul taxes cost more. For the median house in each city, Minneapolis costs more, because Minneapolis houses are worth much more on average than St. Paul ($206k vs $161k).

User avatar
FISHMANPET
IDS Center
Posts: 4582
Joined: June 6th, 2012, 2:19 pm
Location: Corcoran

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby FISHMANPET » December 3rd, 2016, 5:42 pm

I've thought about how to do tax comparisons between cities and between times, which is a more difficult concept then you'd think. I think median is the way to go, because it would help show city wide trends rather than things happening to a localized area. But those localized things do happen and are real! But I don't think they tell meaningful stories about the city budget and the overall tax burden, since those localized things are related to increases in property values in an area, not citywide taxation.

seanrichardryan
Capella Tower
Posts: 3942
Joined: June 3rd, 2012, 9:33 pm
Location: Merriam Park, St. Paul
Contact:

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby seanrichardryan » December 9th, 2016, 8:46 am

$5.77 sq/ft in Seattle... :shock:

https://imgur.com/gallery/HvgVt#GDf61iK
Q. What, what? A. In da butt.

RailBaronYarr
Capella Tower
Posts: 2702
Joined: September 16th, 2012, 4:31 pm

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby RailBaronYarr » December 9th, 2016, 10:37 am

FISHMANPET wrote:I've thought about how to do tax comparisons between cities and between times, which is a more difficult concept then you'd think. I think median is the way to go, because it would help show city wide trends rather than things happening to a localized area. But those localized things do happen and are real! But I don't think they tell meaningful stories about the city budget and the overall tax burden, since those localized things are related to increases in property values in an area, not citywide taxation.
To this point...

Minneapolis and St Paul are obviously very similar cities: built form, density, street layout and design, public amenities (trees, sidewalks, etc), park coverage/maintenance, and even the type of services they provide residents (affordable housing funds, social services, etc). So making a comparison is at least mostly apples to apples when looking at property taxes per median HH value.

But as I pointed out here, comparing Minneapolis or St Paul to a suburb that doesn't do many of those things (and, more critically, doesn't have city-wide infrastructure at the point of constant replacement) is not really helpful. Anyway!

User avatar
Anondson
IDS Center
Posts: 4139
Joined: July 21st, 2013, 8:57 pm
Location: Where West Minneapolis Once Was

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby Anondson » February 11th, 2017, 9:32 pm

Micro units are in high demand in popular neighborhoods. Renting out far before the other size units do.

http://www.startribune.com/studio-apart ... 413495353/

Maybe the city needs to look at exclusionary restrictions that have artificial limits set so low that variances are needed to meet demand.

mattaudio
Stone Arch Bridge
Posts: 7936
Joined: June 19th, 2012, 2:04 pm
Location: NORI: NOrth of RIchfield

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby mattaudio » March 3rd, 2017, 2:44 pm

Has anyone here ever done a minor subdivision within the City of Minneapolis?

QuietBlue
Target Field
Posts: 540
Joined: September 14th, 2012, 8:50 am

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby QuietBlue » March 19th, 2017, 7:02 pm

According to a new index created by the Star Tribune, Richfield is the hottest housing market in the Twin Cities:

http://www.startribune.com/new-index-fi ... 416500793/

seanrichardryan
Capella Tower
Posts: 3942
Joined: June 3rd, 2012, 9:33 pm
Location: Merriam Park, St. Paul
Contact:

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby seanrichardryan » July 5th, 2017, 4:15 pm

Ugliness is to blame for high housing prices:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/dcbjWGj3jBk[/youtube]
Q. What, what? A. In da butt.


User avatar
Anondson
IDS Center
Posts: 4139
Joined: July 21st, 2013, 8:57 pm
Location: Where West Minneapolis Once Was

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby Anondson » July 5th, 2017, 5:51 pm

There is a grain of truth to the ugliness objection. Though I doubt many would agree on the standards of beauty.

Sara Bergen
Metrodome
Posts: 91
Joined: February 6th, 2014, 10:41 am

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby Sara Bergen » July 31st, 2017, 2:52 pm

Market report for our MSA (metropolitan statistical area). It is pretty broad.

https://www.huduser.gov/portal/publicat ... omp-17.pdf


Highlights:

• The metropolitan economy is strong. During the 12 months ending February 2017, nonfarm payrolls rose by 30,600 jobs, or 1.6 percent, from a year earlier to average 1.96 million jobs, and exceeded the previous peak of 1.85 million jobs in 2007 by more than 6 percent. Economic conditions are expected to continue to remain strong during the next 3 years.
• Home sales market conditions are tight. New and existing home sales have declined during the past year, largely because of low levels of sales inventory. Home sales prices continue to rise, and rate of price growth rose during the past 12 months. Single-family home construction is increasing, but is still below pre-recession levels.
• Rental market conditions are balanced. The rental vacancy rate, including single-family homes, apartments, and mobile homes, is estimated to be 4.8 percent, down from 7.6 percent in April 2010. Apartment market conditions are tight, with a vacancy rate of 2.3 percent during the fourth quarter of 2016.
• Recent apartment construction has been concentrated near the Metro Green Line, which attracted $4.2 billion in economic development during the first two years of operation (Metropolitan Council).

mariareese
Block E
Posts: 2
Joined: March 28th, 2016, 3:09 am

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby mariareese » August 23rd, 2017, 12:40 am

absolutely right .. but the tax rate is high that's the problematic thing .. :(

User avatar
Anondson
IDS Center
Posts: 4139
Joined: July 21st, 2013, 8:57 pm
Location: Where West Minneapolis Once Was

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby Anondson » October 5th, 2017, 12:54 pm

For profit and non-profit developers are worried about the housing crunch and not being able to keep up with demand.

https://www.bizjournals.com/twincities/ ... using.html

Particularly that if they can’t get supply up with demand city governments will seriously bring in rent control.

kirby96
Union Depot
Posts: 356
Joined: June 4th, 2012, 11:30 am

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby kirby96 » October 20th, 2017, 6:25 am

I'm definitely getting the sense that homes above the 250-300k range are moderating in price in South Mpls. I know it's fall and all, but we have both the home we live in and GF's small home that is renting out and planning to sell, so we've been watching values pretty closely. Houses in her 250k range have stayed strong (which has been well documented), but higher priced home are definitely showing actual reductions from initial list that are larger and more frequent than any time in the past 3-4 years. Probably not a horrible thing. Sorta seemed like earlier this year prices were going up so consistently that people decided to push it and just say "heck, why not try to get $50k more?"

seanrichardryan
Capella Tower
Posts: 3942
Joined: June 3rd, 2012, 9:33 pm
Location: Merriam Park, St. Paul
Contact:

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby seanrichardryan » December 9th, 2017, 5:58 pm

Race for affordable houses sends developers back out to the exurbs
High costs in the metro are pushing development out; a project in Dayton would double the number of homes there.


http://www.startribune.com/race-for-aff ... 462880903/
Q. What, what? A. In da butt.

min-chi-cbus
Capella Tower
Posts: 3128
Joined: June 1st, 2012, 9:19 am

Re: Housing Market/Economics - General Topics

Postby min-chi-cbus » December 13th, 2017, 5:08 pm

Not to be too nitpicky, but 1,700 homes over 10-20 years is between 85 and 170 homes per year.....not exactly breakneck greenfield development. Blaine built as many units in 2 years in the not-too-distant past (2004-2005). That part of the story is not that interesting.

The more interesting aspect of the story to me is the seemingly inevitable spillover effect of lower-income housing to the suburbs -- particularly the exurbs. I find this concept fascinating and somewhat concerning as well.

As an aside/spinoff from this discussion....why is it that developers can't develop SFHs in greenfields closer to how neighborhoods (emphasis on that word) were developed in the 1900's and even as late as the 1950's? It seems like it would be in their best interest to maximize development on the land if land prices are a big constraint (and doing so without townhomes or other attached housing). It can't just be a "sign of the times" either, as I notice far better utilization of suburban developments in many other metros (though more exclusively higher-cost metros and/or metros out West that have either serious land constraints or environmental factors/laws to consider). Still, it seems that developing this way would be a very easy way to limit the overhead (land, infrastructure, etc.) and maximize the output (number of units/businesses) and achieve what everybody is most concerned about -- affordability/bang for your buck. To this end, I've seen a few tiny developments that exhibit the characteristics I'm describing (e.g. Clover Field in Chaska), but it doesn't seem to have caught on completely.

Maybe this metro's microeconomic factors include a.) plentiful land with few constraints -- physical or otherwise, and b.) a current population that has disproportionately rural roots compared to other metros where people don't expect as much land?


Return to “Anything Goes”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest