Presidential Election 2016

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Tiller
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Presidential Election 2016

Postby Tiller » June 26th, 2015, 9:45 am

Who else here has been watching Bernie Sanders? He's gaining on Hillary in the polls, and for once is starting to get media attention. I've also noticed that many libertarians (even right-wing ones)(some republicans too), would be willing to vote for him, generally saying something like "I may not always agree with him, but he actually means what he says, and isn't bought and paid for".

I'm pretty hyped for him, and think he could be our FDR. I also personally find Liberals and Libertarians to be a realistic and potent coalition.

http://www.wmur.com/politics/wmurcnn-po ... h/33776056
http://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-s ... oll-2015-6
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/201 ... ry-clinton
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/h-a-goodm ... 60226.html
http://www.npr.org/sections/itsallpolit ... s-election

a few assorted articles^

Mod Note: Renamed thread

LakeCharles
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby LakeCharles » June 26th, 2015, 10:12 am

I think Bernie Sanders is great, but I also think his chances of getting the nomination are so so slim.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what ... ers-surge/

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby EOst » June 26th, 2015, 10:17 am

I love Sen. Sanders, I went to his rally, and I'll probably vote for him in the primary.

But I really doubt he'd win a general election against a strong Republican candidate.

As today should have reminded everyone, the most important question of the next presidential term isn't what positions whoever is elected takes, it's who gets to nominate the next set of people to the Supreme Court. Scalia is 79, Ginsburg is 82, Kennedy is 78, Breyer is 76. Statistically the odds of all four of them surviving (much less serving) until 2021 are relatively low. Whoever becomes President next year is going to have the ability to effect a really fundamental and long-lasting change in constitutional jurisprudence in this country, one which could resolve a lot of the issues Bernie is campaigning on or cement them for a generation. That alone is enough reason to go for whoever has the best chance of winning the general.

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Tiller
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby Tiller » June 26th, 2015, 12:37 pm

I agree fully with what EOst said. What I find exciting is that "whoever has the best chance of winning the general" could be either Bernie or Hillary at this point (still some waiting and seeing to be done).

Forgot this (may be helpful for some): http://voteforbernie.org/

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby twincitizen » June 26th, 2015, 1:31 pm

I would support Bernie Sanders, and think he could possibly win in 2016, but Democrats need to be looking ahead to 2020. Because of redistricting that will follow the 2020 election, that needs to be a huge wave year for democrats, although probably more so at the state level than Federal. I'm not sure Bernie could get re-elected

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby Viktor Vaughn » June 26th, 2015, 1:34 pm

I know your predictions tend to come true TC, but damn - that's really looking ahead. Why could he get elected, but not re-elected?

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby mulad » June 26th, 2015, 2:06 pm

I'm in an "anyone but Hillary" camp for now since I can't stand the thought of close family members holding the office of president in a country of 300+ million people. I would love love love for a woman to attain the office, but I just can't back someone who's already lived in the White House for eight years.

I've always liked what Bernie Sanders has said, and sent in a donation to his campaign a while back. I saw an analysis of his campaign positions recently that showed how he fits the general opinions of the country pretty well, although it sounds like he's more pro-gun than what's probably appropriate for 2015.

For now, I just want to keep the media from falling into a whirlpool of all-Hillary-all-the-time coverage on the Democratic side. There's still a chance someone else I like will pop up, but despite the fact he's an old white guy, I suspect I'll be backing Bernie.

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Tiller
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby Tiller » July 2nd, 2015, 4:55 am

There have been a surprising amount of articles online about Sanders considering how the 'normal news' ignores and belittles him.

http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/7709966

Reminds me of Obama and Hillary in '08. "what? A one term black senator could never win the general election!"

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby twincitizen » July 2nd, 2015, 8:15 am

Viktor Vaughn wrote:I know your predictions tend to come true TC, but damn - that's really looking ahead. Why could he get elected, but not re-elected?
Well, his age for one. It's a factor and will hurt him even in 2016, were he to become the Democratic nominee. Bernie will be 79 in 2020 - that's probably unelectable. Age certainly hurt McCain in 2008, and he was only 72 at the time!

One big thing Bernie could do is promise to not run for a second term. That might actually make him even more popular among independent folks, less politically inclined folks, etc. And it would certainly quell fears about his age in years 2020-2024. Another thing he could do is pick a very qualified VP.

Beyond the age factor though, I feel like after 4 years of battling a GOP-controlled congress and accomplishing little to nothing other than firey speeches, the general public will be looking to move on. I dunno, just a feeling I have.

So the winner of the 2016 election might get to appoint 1 or 2 Supreme Court justices. Definitely at least 1.
The winner of the 2020 election will probably get to appoint even more. Several justices are old but they aren't on their death beds quite yet. Only Ginsburg is in her 80s, with Scalia and Kennedy about to join that club in 2016.

But the 2020 election is so much more critical for Democrats. We have to crush it, and have to crush it with a huge tidal wave at the state level (coattails, etc.) Democrats must control as many swing-state legislatures as possible in 2021 in order to undo the gerrymandering that occurred following the last Census. Mark my words - 2022 is the absolute earliest that Democrats will have a chance to regain the US House majority. But it won't happen without redrawing the districts more fairly in a bunch of states. Otherwise you're looking at a GOP-held US House for the foreseeable future.

So in short, electing Bernie Sanders might be a very short-lived victory for Progressives, and might not produce many tangible results given GOP control of congress - and it could very possibly cause irreparable harm to progressive causes going forward, by losing in 2020. UNLESS, of course, he picks a rock-star VP nominee or the Democratic Party is otherwise prepared to nominate someone else in 2020.

(All that said, I have no love for Hillary Clinton either. I really, really wish there were someone else. It seems right now that the Democratic stars bench is pretty depleted and/or aging. That plus everyone being afraid of running against Hillary or recognizing the futility. I really wish she wasn't running so we could have an honest contest on our side. Despite the clown show that is the 20+ people running for the GOP nomination, at their party gets to have an honest discussion and air out all the issues.)

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby xandrex » July 6th, 2015, 11:00 am

It seems like most of the arguments against Hillary are more personality based or because of her husband previously serving.

One thing that gets bandied about is that people like Bernie and Elizabeth Warren are more liberal than Clinton. I thought so myself, but it was interesting to see 538 do a write up that kind of dispelled that.

Where the difference lies with them seems to be the rhetoric they use. Bernie is definitely more a of a firebrand. And I think that makes him vulnerable to very quickly being painted as a socialist and ignored. Clinton seems to be willing to play the long game a bit more and negotiate a bit. Whether that's a good or bad thing is up for interpretation by individuals.

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby David Greene » July 6th, 2015, 12:02 pm

The people I know aren't disappointed in Clinton due to personality or any other such trait. They're disappointed because she is a Corporatist. That is a gigantic difference between her and Sanders.

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby xandrex » July 6th, 2015, 2:25 pm

I've heard some interesting stuff from progressives, including many that have interestingly fallen back on sexist stereotypes (including plenty that came awfully close to use synonyms for "bossy").

Clinton has connections in high places, that's for sure. But if her voting record (we can't really consider what her husband did during his time in office) is about the same as Sanders and Warren, then that really should be less of an obstacle for most Democrats than it's being made out to be.

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby grant1simons2 » July 6th, 2015, 2:32 pm

Pretty sure literally lassoing up reporters at a parade is bad too.

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby xandrex » July 6th, 2015, 2:38 pm

^What's hilarious about that (in a sad way) is that the press went along with it. I mean...this was a photo-op parade for her. There was nothing to report. But they still let themselves be lassoed.

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby Viktor Vaughn » July 6th, 2015, 3:20 pm

David Greene wrote:The people I know aren't disappointed in Clinton due to personality or any other such trait. They're disappointed because she is a Corporatist. That is a gigantic difference between her and Sanders.
Exactly. She's supported by Wall Street for a reason. I have exactly zero faith she would side with ordinary people at the expense of her rich patrons.

Even though Sanders is a long shot, I have to support him because he's the only one standing up for regular folk.

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby David Greene » July 6th, 2015, 3:20 pm

xandrex wrote:But if her voting record (we can't really consider what her husband did during his time in office) is about the same as Sanders and Warren, then that really should be less of an obstacle for most Democrats than it's being made out to be.
I'm much less concerned about a candidate's voting record than I am about their worldview. What do they fundamentally believe the country should look like? As far as I can tell, Sanders' view is closer to mine than Clinton's.

xandrex
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby xandrex » July 6th, 2015, 5:46 pm

David Greene wrote:I'm much less concerned about a candidate's voting record than I am about their worldview. What do they fundamentally believe the country should look like? As far as I can tell, Sanders' view is closer to mine than Clinton's.
And that's a completely legitimate way to look at a candidate. Not denying that. :)

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Tiller
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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby Tiller » July 6th, 2015, 6:28 pm

Overfilling yet another large venue.

http://www.politicususa.com/2015/07/06/ ... maine.html

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby MNdible » July 7th, 2015, 9:18 am

I can't help but think that Bernie Sanders is sort of the same as Ron Paul.

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Re: Bernie Sanders

Postby Viktor Vaughn » July 7th, 2015, 9:54 am

MNdible wrote:I can't help but think that Bernie Sanders is sort of the same as Ron Paul.
Well, yes and no. They of course have polar opposite positions on many issues, but both are on the back of the political spectrum. They are both outsiders who want to upset the order of things. They both have an energetic grass roots fanbase and are both derided/dismissed by the corporate media.

If we think of the political spectrum as a ring, Hillary and Jeb are on the left and right of the front side of the ring. They differ on many issues, but will also reliably maintain the status quo. Bernie Sanders and Ron Paul (not so sure about Rand) occupy the left and right of the back side of the ring. They disagree on many issues, but can agree on populist matters such as protecting civil liberties and are both opposed to imperialism and crony-capitalism.

I've long argued that our best hope as a country was a populist liberal / libertarian alliance to work together to take power from the corporatist plutocracy represented by the Clintons and Bushes. During most of the time I've argued this, it seemed pretty ludicrous as the politicians and media exasperate the left/right divide and we just keep bickering. However, I think we have started to see a coalition forming lately, as demonstrated by the recent bipartisan efforts to block the extension of section 215 of the patriot act.

I think your comment about Ron Paul was meant to dismiss Bernie Sanders. But there's no doubt that Ron Paul has had a huge effect on the Republican Party. He brought in a lot of young activists that are seeking to remake the party in many beneficial (and some not so beneficial) ways. Ron Paul on the debate stage was freakin priceless as he made the other candidates look like complete tools by simply speaking truthfully and candidly.

I think Bernie's candidacy could bring many of these same benefits to the Democratic Party


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