Presidential Election 2016

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mattaudio
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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby mattaudio » February 2nd, 2016, 8:45 am

Sounds like it's accurate to say Clinton literally won this thing on a coin toss.

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Nathan
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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby Nathan » February 2nd, 2016, 9:12 am

Or 6.

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby Didier » February 2nd, 2016, 9:16 am

Probably not a popular topic here, but going the other way on Twincitizen's speculation, what is the future for Bernie should he lose the nomination?

He's too independent (and old and white and male and from Vermont) to be a VP option. Could he be a cabinet pick for somewhere? Ambassador to Sweden? Or does he ride out into the sunset?

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby mulad » February 2nd, 2016, 9:29 am

Sanders still has two years remaining in his senate term, so he wouldn't have to jump to anything right away.

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby Snelbian » February 2nd, 2016, 9:41 am


amiller92
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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby amiller92 » February 2nd, 2016, 3:17 pm

twincitizen wrote:100% of anti-Clinton Democrats
They aren't really a thing. I don't have exact numbers, but my understanding is that the vast majority of Dems like both Hillary and Bernie.

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby amiller92 » February 2nd, 2016, 3:27 pm

I'm not sure there's a lot to pick up from the Bush, Christie and Kasich camps, but yeah, relatively strong showing for Rubio and relatively weak showing for Trump could be the start of path toward the nomination for Rubio. It probably requires taking from Trump and Cruz, though, and I'm not sure how he does that. Or how badly trying to will hurt him in the general. You have to think the GOP establishment is going to be pushing for that in what now looks like the three way race.

The Hillary/Bernie dynamics are interesting. He's clearly campaigned in a way that is designed not to burn any bridges in the event of the expected Hillary win, but you have to wonder if a stronger than I think even he expected opening might lead him to get more aggressive.

I doubt it, because it's pretty easy to see how energized young people in Iowa can have a disproportionate impact on a caucus (vs. a primarily), so I'd guess Bernie still thinks he's fighting an uphill battle that most likely still leave him hitting the stump for Hillary in the general. If so, Secretary of Labor maybe? Or just back to the Senate.

I think either Dem candidate can beat Cruz or Trump (god, I hope we're not that crazy). They should be able to beat Rubio easily too, but he at least seems like he could pivot to the center for the general in a way the other two can't.

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby MNdible » February 2nd, 2016, 4:15 pm

Rubio has all along been the one on the Republican side that scared me, because he doesn't seem to actually hold many moderate or centrist opinions, but people still treat him as though he's one. That makes him extra dangerous.

Still, there's this:

Image

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby Didier » February 2nd, 2016, 4:56 pm

amiller92 wrote:relatively strong showing for Rubio and relatively weak showing for Trump could be the start of path toward the nomination for Rubio.
It's kind of funny, this is indeed the narrative from last night, but even with Trump's "weak" showing he still beat Rubio, and even-more-extreme Ted Cruz beat both of them.

But yeah, unless Kasich or Christie has a surprisingly really strong showing in New Hampshire, Rubio probably is the guy for the "establishment" Republicans. I'd be curious to see how he would stack up in the real debate, though. In my head I'm imagining the Joe Biden-Paul Ryan dynamic, where Ryan came off as naive and inexperienced. Rubio gives off some of that same vibe in the GOP debates, before the candidates don't scrutinize each other in any meaningful way.

All that said, I still wouldn't count Cruz out and might even put him as the front-runner. And if that happens, I think it could be good for American politics, because the "we'd win if we only nominated a real conservative" myth would finally go to rest when he gets blown out in the general election.

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Tiller
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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby Tiller » February 2nd, 2016, 11:01 pm

twincitizen wrote:With essentially every person in Congress not named Keith Ellison having endorsed Clinton already, have Sanders supporters / campaign leaders given much thought to who could be his VP?
The 3 non-minnesotans I've contemplated thus far are Elizabeth Warren, Tulsi Gabbard, and Wendy Davis; each have some pros and cons. I'm not really sure who would/should be his VP pick, though the campaign probably has some clearer ideas.
Didier wrote:He's too independent (and old and white and male and from Vermont) to be a VP option. Could he be a cabinet pick for somewhere? Ambassador to Sweden? Or does he ride out into the sunset?
Not as long as we have Cruz in the Senate.
http://www.startribune.com/local-scandi ... 366789481/
Norway has been without an ambassador for more than 800 days and Sweden tops 400 days without a U.S. representative.
With regards to the question, I can imagine Bernie staying in the Senate and using his supporters/infrastructure to work on changing the composition of Congress, and perhaps state governments. Maybe he could be the DNC chair, which would be somewhat ironic.

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby mulad » February 3rd, 2016, 11:02 am

Rand Paul dropped out of the race this morning -- a little bit of a surprise since he came in 5th in Iowa. He joins Mike Huckabee on the Republican side, who suspended his campaign on Monday night as polling results came in. Huckabee still ended up ahead of Christie, Santorum, and Gilmore (who only got 12 votes!). Paul came in ahead of them plus Bush, Fiorina, and Kasich. And of course O'Malley dropped out on the Democratic side on Monday too.

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Nathan
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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby Nathan » February 4th, 2016, 10:20 am

One feminists perspective on why Bernie is the better candidate. Am interesting read.

http://thebaffler.com/blog/my-kind-misogyny

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby mulad » February 4th, 2016, 10:22 am

Santorum ended his run last night, endorsing Rubio. So that takes out three of the four candidates I suggested after the 4th-quarter financials were released over the weekend.

Also note Colbert's "Hungry for Power Games" segment from last night, though he recorded it before Santorum's announcement:

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby MattW » February 4th, 2016, 1:25 pm

MNdible wrote:Rubio has all along been the one on the Republican side that scared me, because he doesn't seem to actually hold many moderate or centrist opinions, but people still treat him as though he's one. That makes him extra dangerous.
The thing that scares me about Rubio is he is extremely well spoken and can work the heart strings exceedingly well. He's nearly Obama-esque when he speaks. There have been times where I watch him and I'll be thinking "wow this guy is smart and someone that I really can support". However, when he actually dives into his policy positions I do a 180 and realize that I agree with him on about ZERO issues.

He is dangerous because of his eloquence, the moderate uninformed voter could easily lay victim to it.

acs
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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby acs » February 4th, 2016, 1:37 pm

Liberals pulled the same deal with Obama over Clinton 8 years ago so thank you for laying out the formula.

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Tiller
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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby Tiller » February 6th, 2016, 1:36 pm

Rumors of push-polling by the Clinton campaign and/or superPAC are going around. This morning I've seen it on DailyKos, Reddit, and Facebook.

Additionally, the whole "release the speeches" thing seems like it has legs.

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby trigonalmayhem » February 7th, 2016, 10:53 am

Can we talk about the condescending Gloria Steinem and Madeline Albright endorsements of Hillary? Those are *not* playing well with a lot of people. Every comment thread I've seen is like 80+% decrying them for being out of touch. If anything they seem to have solidified support for Bernie in a lot of people who were on the fence.

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Tiller
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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby Tiller » February 7th, 2016, 6:53 pm

trigonalmayhem wrote:Can we talk about the condescending Gloria Steinem and Madeline Albright endorsements of Hillary? Those are *not* playing well with a lot of people. Every comment thread I've seen is like 80+% decrying them for being out of touch. If anything they seem to have solidified support for Bernie in a lot of people who were on the fence.
Holy shit I just saw these and this is perhaps some of the most direct, crazy, stupid, divisive bullshit yet from camp Clinton.

http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/reb ... l_20160207
Maybe it wasn’t such a great idea for Hillary Clinton to invite Madeleine Albright to campaign for her in New Hampshire.

During a campaign event in Concord on Saturday, the former Secretary of State declared: “Young women have to support Hillary Clinton. The story is not over!”

“They’re going to want to push us back,” she continued. “It’s not done and you have to help. Hillary Clinton will always be there for you. And just remember, there’s a special place in hell for women who don’t help each other.”
Well, then again, there's no doubt now that the Clinton campaign has dived head-first into negativity.
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/02/b ... ary-218916

This shit is going to sink Hillary in the general election if she is the nominee.

There's no better way to get people to sign up for the #BernieOrBust pledge (literally and metaphorically) than to continue to berate Bernie's supporters as sexist, racist, childish, traitors, republican plants, harassers, "BernieBros", wanting "Unicorns and Rainbows" from that "Magic Wand" Hillary keeps bringing up on the campaign trail, etc. etc. etc.

(and that's all without even going into the attacks on Bernie)

This is compounded by the composition of Bernie's base, much of which isn't traditionally reliable. The very thing that gives her an advantage in the primaries makes her weaker relative to Bernie in the general election, even more so as her campaign continues to bash and alienate Bernie's base.

yay for elections

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Tiller
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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby Tiller » February 7th, 2016, 9:24 pm

This is what Hillary is bringing upon herself (was unexpectedly difficult to find these).

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-c ... story.html

https://youtu.be/ZBygN2CSE24?t=3m25s

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Re: Presidential Election 2016

Postby MNdible » February 7th, 2016, 9:31 pm

"[Sanders supporter] Zannechia's second choice for president is Donald Trump."


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