urbanMSP

The Twin Cities metro has been having among the lowest growth rates of Covid-19 in the country.

Still curious what factors have helped keep this low here.

http://cityobservatory.org/what-cities- ... -pandemic/

The Twin Cities metro has been having among the lowest growth rates of Covid-19 in the country.

Still curious what factors have helped keep this low here.

http://cityobservatory.org/what-cities- ... -pandemic/

I feel like the governor acted a bit faster in the process than others (at least NY), but it's probably the same things that lead us to have above average health outcomes overall: we're richer, whiter, more educated and benefit from a more robust health care system than average.

There is also the possibility that we've been worse at testing than other areas and are just missing many people who are infected. In terms of just raw tests per capita, we are roughly middle of the pack, but it is possible they have been distributed less optimally than others.

That may very well be so. And the test results I think are best looked at as a delayed view of many days.

FWIW, a coworker of my wife’s was admitted for emergency surgery an infected gall bladder. Before surgery they took him to the Covid-19 section and had him tested first, then they took him to get tested. (He tested negative).

If they’re opting to test non-Covid-19 patients just because, seems we don’t have an extreme shortage but we clearly do not have enough for a wider test everyone.

It had seemed to me that our high concentration of global multinational corporations, and generally higher wealth, would have indicated a higher number global travelers who would have returned with it. I mean, the explosion of cases in ski resort towns kinda showed that luxury travelers were early vectors.

As of April 5th, among all other states and DC, Minnesota ranked...

27th in tests per capita
51st in confirmed cases per capita
47th in percentage of positive tests

In other words, the state is in the middle of the pack when it comes to testing, but it is finding fewer cases than almost any other. It would be good if the state was higher in the first category, but otherwise you want to be last in those other two rankings!

I can think of two explanations for this. The first is that Minnesota is just massively screwing up testing in some way, whether by targeting the wrong people or by contaminating the tests in a systematic way. You can't rule that out, but it's probably far more likely that Minnesota simply has fewer cases than other US states, whether because of early action by governments, a culture of rule following, greater wealth and education, the virus being weirdly late to the state, or some unknown environmental factor.

Obviously the only way to know for sure is to test, and the state simply is not testing enough right now (although that's not unique).

I kinda think the hospitalization rate right might be a little more accurate in terms of the overall spread albeit 1-2 weeks behind when factoring the incubation period since it doesn't really matter if you screwed up testing if you need to be hospitalized because of Covid-19 at that point.
Know If I had to guess why MN seems to be on the lower side, it might be because in the end the Twin Cities is still on the smaller side when compared to the larger (and harder hit) cites and the government response happened before the virus really head compared to said other cities. Also this might be a stretch but Mayo clinic might of had somewhat of a role in it since correct me if I'm wrong but when the virus first started spreading inside the state, olmsted county had the the second highest reported cases. The fact that Rochester which I've seen touted as one of the most top medical locations in the country was struggling to deal with the virus, might of influenced the Governor a little when first taking action

Might be too early to believe Hennepin County is out of the woods.

Minnesota appears to average among US states.

I think the better way to put it is that Minnesota is in the top tier among states (ranking between 6th and 12th in the states comparison to other countries), and average compared with the United States population as a whole (which looks to be because a strong response in California is bringing the country's average way down).

On that note, Florida is also bringing the national average down, which is fascinating. The state seems to have done everything wrong from a policy perspective, and has a vulnerable population, is doing so well. That might validate the idea that heat and humidity help slow the spread of this virus, as they do with the flu. But other Southern states are being badly hit. Is the meteorological difference between Miami and Atlanta (as I write about 10 degrees and 10% humidity) really that crucial?

The Twin Cities metro has been having among the lowest growth rates of Covid-19 in the country.

Still curious what factors have helped keep this low here.

http://cityobservatory.org/what-cities- ... -pandemic/

https://youtu.be/9dKtxhuGS5k?t=572

Mplsjaromir, where do the two tables originate from?

Twitter user @americannumbers

On that note, Florida is also bringing the national average down, which is fascinating. The state seems to have done everything wrong from a policy perspective, and has a vulnerable population, is doing so well. That might validate the idea that heat and humidity help slow the spread of this virus, as they do with the flu. But other Southern states are being badly hit. Is the meteorological difference between Miami and Atlanta (as I write about 10 degrees and 10% humidity) really that crucial?

North of Lake Okeechobee (basically north of Palm Beach County) is subtropical. Palm Beach County & lower (a good portion of the state’s population) is tropical.

Miami is no longer bringing the average down, so it was just delayed. Dade County now has 10,000 cases and 200+ deaths. Broward County has another 4,000 cases and 100+ deaths. Those numbers are well above average per capita.

Urban density doesn’t cause more COVID-19 infections, even promotes lower death rates

Crowded city streets, subways, and buses are among the most likely places to become infected with COVID-19 over the past few months. Surprisingly, however, a new study from the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health concludes that densely populated spaces aren’t actually linked to higher infection rates.

Even more confounding, the study’s analysis indicates that crowded, dense locations are associated with lower coronavirus death rates.

In all, COVID-19 infection and death rates were assessed across 913 U.S. metropolitan counties. After researchers accounted for additional factors like race and education, the population density within each county was not significantly linked to infection rates. As mentioned, denser counties, as opposed to more rural, sprawling areas with smaller populations, were associated with lower death rates. The study’s authors speculate this is because denser, urban areas often offer better healthcare services.

https://www.studyfinds.org/surprising-s ... ath-rates/

Just a reminder, even Gilligan was smart enough to listen to the Professor, not the millionaire or his wife.