Minneapolis Density and Population Growth (500k, etc)

Parks, Minneapolis Public Schools, Density, Zoning, etc.
thatchio
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby thatchio » February 15th, 2014, 9:06 pm

i don't think it's that relevant that these newer buildings mostly have larger local firms or national companies as tenants. new space is expensive, whether residential or commercial. you should expect that the most likely tenant would be one that is financially more viable where both the tenant and landlord are willing to take a risk on expensive space.

i think in some communities, these new buildings provide space that will long term be relatively more affordable to commercial tenants, as rent often goes down the further it is from when it was built or renovated. if the overall supply in the area increased, it may have actually reduced demand on the c-class space, which could aide small businesses.

my biggest beef with minneapolis is that we only like commercial development on our major streets. we lack districts. for affordability, it seems that having more a, b, c-class space. here, we have corridors that intersect. at the intersections, rents generally are highest unless a new building is constructed elsewhere. as the districts increase in demand, rents go up highest at the intersection and less so further away. for example, the cheapest rents in uptown/lynlake are in older buildings on the 2800 block of Hennepin, the retail near Bryant-Lake, retail north of 28th, and the older buildings in lynlake south of lake or east of lyndale.

in other cities, there are secondary streets parallel to the main streets that end up having commercial uses mixed in. the street two blocks away may have commercial here and there, which would be cheapest. in places that are completely taken over by chains, like pasadena or third street promenade in santa monica, the indie retail is all on parallel streets nearby. to me, in uptown those townhomes at 31st and Girard should have had a small retail space on the corner for uses like retail, professional office, or other non-intensive commercial use.

part of our lack of indie retail in these buildings, compared with say portland, is that i don't think minneapolis is as strong of an indie retail culture than they are. people say they love indie retail but then they shop at Target, sam's club, and other mass retailers. you want a co-op grocer in downtown, then the community needs to come together and do so. i don't think the lack of a downtown co-op is because these new buildings are preventing them. given the lack of public discussion on one, it likely has to do with a lack of interest in making it happen.

RailBaronYarr
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby RailBaronYarr » February 15th, 2014, 11:27 pm

Great writeup, thatchio. Is zoning the major factor holding back some small commercial spaces from taking hold (something similar to this: http://midrisemixeduse.tumblr.com/post/ ... n-portland), or are there other structural/social issues as you note (ie shopping at Tgt)? Is this because getting to indie places is too difficult without a car, and thus people just end up in a SLP Target? Either way, I agree on secondary commercial (and even residential, think laneway houses), and I think this is the key to keeping areas directly adjacent to eclectic commercial spots as they inevitably become redeveloped (think: Dinkytown). Places where it may be too hard to justify not allowing higher land uses due to proximity, but very nearby streets could accommodate low value commercial just fine.

thatchio
Nicollet Mall
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby thatchio » February 16th, 2014, 8:38 pm

i'm not sure. the examples in the link you provided are for what looks like residential structures that were converted to retail. in both cases, they are located on streets that have significant commercial presence. mississippi is sort of like the community around Anchor/Dangerous man in mpls. pok pok is an amazing thai restaurant in SE that has a mix of older commercial buildings, residential, and new mixed-use.

we certainly have conversions like that but many are decades old.

part of it is zoning, as minneapolis tends not to upzone properties until a deal comes forth because zoning like c2 can also pave the way for all sorts of uses people don't generally like (auto, fast food, etc). converting space from R4 to c1 is a tall order. part of it is a vision for minneapolis that has focused commercial growth strictly on existing corridors. our small area planning processes often don't suggest growing a district beyond the commercial drags. for the uptown small area plan, the plan calls for frontages facing Fremont, including those between lake and 29th, as residential...though the blocks were ID'd as mixed-use. I would have preferred the blocks all the way from 28th to lake as commercial and an indication that small, low-intensity mixed-use projects along 31st would be appropriate.

RailBaronYarr
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby RailBaronYarr » February 17th, 2014, 11:23 am

Agreed on the difference in location of the Portland sites. My point was only that conversions of structures on the side streets can be done. Something similar to Blue Door Longfellow - a decent commercial destination on a low-value street surrounded by residential (and a school). It's even possible that corner residential could remain with commercial just built out to the property line, having very low effect on neighborhood aesthetics but still being mixed-use (instead of R-C conversion).

thatchio
Nicollet Mall
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby thatchio » February 17th, 2014, 8:10 pm

good point. set backs may be an issue then. i like the idea

kiliff75
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby kiliff75 » May 20th, 2014, 11:02 pm

Apparently Mpls hit 400k according to a preliminary estimate by he met council...

http://www.mprnews.org/story/2014/05/20 ... ce-the-70s

NickP
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby NickP » May 21st, 2014, 7:47 am

:D :mrgreen: Awesome! Happy Dance :)

twincitizen
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby twincitizen » May 21st, 2014, 7:55 am

And that's of July 2013, if I'm not mistaken. Now just think about the vast number of apartments that have opened since or currently under construction... Assuming similar growth from 7/2013-7/2014 as the previous year (9,000 new residents), we're actually going to be closing in on 410,000 by the end of this year.

mullen
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby mullen » May 21st, 2014, 10:28 am

met council projects 465,000 by 2040. a tad low? seeing all of the neighborhood density debates i wonder if we will reach 500,000. south mpls has a very single family home character which residents cherish. density will have to come on the large corridors with transit.

Wedgeguy
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby Wedgeguy » May 21st, 2014, 11:54 am

mullen wrote:met council projects 465,000 by 2040. a tad low? seeing all of the neighborhood density debates i wonder if we will reach 500,000. south mpls has a very single family home character which residents cherish. density will have to come on the large corridors with transit.
We have seen that they don't even want that. They want the perks, but not to have to pay the price in order to make them a reality. They want more frequent buses, more amenities, stores that will not come unless there is density of customers. Retailers will not come just on the promise down the road of new housing. They want to see brick and mortar, and people already walking the street and things that are really happening, not a neighborhood wish list or we don't want.

mattaudio
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby mattaudio » May 21st, 2014, 12:03 pm

They = some, not all. I want more neighbors. I want ADUs in my neighborhood. I want some more apartments in our commercial nodes.

the other scott
City Center
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Minneapolis breaks 400,000 population mark

Postby the other scott » May 22nd, 2014, 9:22 am

This seems significant, even if only psychologically....

edit - oops didn't see the other thread
Last edited by the other scott on May 22nd, 2014, 11:25 am, edited 1 time in total.

John
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby John » May 22nd, 2014, 9:55 am

High density development is very important to our population growth, however, I think developments like the ones described in this video will also have a major impact on our city's residential neighborhoods of single family homes to create population growth. Attracting middle class people with families as urban residents will be a huge stabilizing force in our community, especially in our more economically distressed areas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe4qp7kp ... 6QIsA#t=99

JordanWasaN
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby JordanWasaN » May 22nd, 2014, 4:17 pm

The Census Bureau just released their July 1, 2013 population estimates for subcounty units (cities). Minneapolis' estimated population was 400,070, a gain of 7,302 since July 1, 2012 and 17,492 since the 2010 Census.

Saint Paul was at 294,873, a gain of 3,834 for the year and 9,805 since the Census.

http://factfinder2.census.gov/faces/tab ... l?src=bkmk

min-chi-cbus
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby min-chi-cbus » May 22nd, 2014, 7:30 pm

I think it starts with schools. Have good (or even better) inner city schools and the working class families and immigrants with larger families will choose to locate in the core and not the suburbs. The city can still attract empty nesters and YUPpies, and they will (generally) prefer the highest density, amenity-laden parts of town, while the SFH areas can house the families.

One problem that exists already is that the pre-existing housing stock is generally quite small on average and can't house today's middle-class families who generally prefer a bedroom for each child (at least 3+ BRs). I don't know if changing the zoning code to support 3-4 floors of housing (R3/R4) or allowing carriage homes in the alleys would foster this type of dynamic.

We should look to sister cities like Seattle, Portland and San Diego who all have similar infrastructure but are growing faster, and also look up to cities we admire like (presumably) Chicago, DC, and Boston for some best practice approaches and then dig deep and come up with a creative local solution.

ECtransplant
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby ECtransplant » May 22nd, 2014, 11:16 pm

Given Seattle's recent rejections of transit and of density, I'm not sure it's a city we should be looking to

twincitizen
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby twincitizen » May 22nd, 2014, 11:21 pm


min-chi-cbus
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby min-chi-cbus » May 23rd, 2014, 7:14 am

ECtransplant wrote:Given Seattle's recent rejections of transit and of density, I'm not sure it's a city we should be looking to
What are you talking about? They're expanding their transit MUCH faster and to a much larger extent than we have, especially lately. Also, the city is growing like gangbusters, ergo the population density is increasing. They've also been very successful of luring their largest companies downtown, something that Minneapolis could also improve upon (I'm looking at you, UnitedHealth Group).

I'm not sure where the basis of your comment was coming from.

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MSPtoMKE
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby MSPtoMKE » May 23rd, 2014, 8:02 am

King County just rejected a ballot measure to rescue King County Metro, so significant cuts in transit are on the way, on the order of 17% I believe. A Seattle-only tax is being considered that may limit the damage to in-city routes. Snohomish County to the north and Pierce County to the south have also seen drastic cuts in the last few years.

As for the light rail system, it is higher capacity and faster than ours, but it is hardly being expanded MUCH faster than here. It is one line with 13 stations, 3 new stations open in 2016. They have dedicated a significant amount of money to the system, but that is mostly due to the cost of so much grade-separation.

Back on topic, it would seem that the population of the two central cities has probably now exceeded 700,000.
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nate
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Re: Minneapolis Density and Population Growth

Postby nate » May 23rd, 2014, 8:30 am

The supply of desireable single family homes in the inner cities is quite small IMO.

After spending the spring looking at houses, I'd guesstimate that the it breaks down like this:
10% - beautiful, well-maintained classics. These rarely come up for sale and are limited to a few neighborhoods.
20% - solid, well cared for. Some upgrades are needed but for the most part they are ready for a second century of useful life.
40 % - moderately maintained homes that need some serious improvements. Amateurish "upgrades" over the years quickly show their age and feel cheap. As referenced above, many in this class are too small for most contemporary families to consider adequate.
20% - Poorly maintained and need heroic work to be considered desirable.
10% - Nearing the very end of useful lifespan.

We had to look for awhile to find a house in the second category that was affordable (in the 200k range), and had to snap it up when we did. I would have been fine looking for a cheaper home, then upgrading it, but that was a nonstarter for my wife.

I guess the point of all this is the character of the SFH neighborhoods in the cities is likely to change drastically in the next several years as that last 30-40% of the housing stock gets replaced. Great opportunity for increasing density in an organic way, IMO.


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