Rumors: A Historical Record of Mystery

[nasa35]

Nasa has had a knack for knowing about proposals before the rest of us since the Ryan/TCF days.

Granted, none of those proposals ever came to be, but they weren't fiction either.

It was an awful time. We literally had 15 significant projects left at the altar...never seen anything like that.

These projects are different. If any of you know established architects and project managers, you'll know what I'm saying. Also, stuff gets bid all the time before anyone breaks out a shovel or press release. There's real money out there right now....

Not sure where the negative nancy crap is coming from, but we're about to embark on the some pretty exciting stuff.

[Nick]

I think that the United States Capitol will be moved to Minneapolis in the next couple years. This is a good prediction and it makes a lot of sense to me. The time is right for us to move our federal seat of government and build a new Capitol building here, because I thought it and typed it in this box.

retired banker; this is exactly what I was telling you about. It's astounding these people even post here, IMO.

I think it's clear that I'm very funny. One time, I saw a standup comedian. In the next few years, I'll probably also become a standup comedian, and I'll have my own TV show shortly after that. It will be on FOX. One time I watched a show on FOX, so that lines up with my plan well.

[mnmike]

I certainly hope so:)

It's good to know these type of projects are being discussed. Hopefully the economy will hold, and come spring we will have some news!

[TWA]

I think that the United States Capitol will be moved to Minneapolis in the next couple years. This is a good prediction and it makes a lot of sense to me. The time is right for us to move our federal seat of government and build a new Capitol building here, because I thought it and typed it in this box.

retired banker; this is exactly what I was telling you about. It's astounding these people even post here, IMO.

I think it's clear that I'm very funny. One time, I saw a standup comedian. In the next few years, I'll probably also become a standup comedian, and I'll have my own TV show shortly after that. It will be on FOX. One time I watched a show on FOX, so that lines up with my plan well.

If it is posted on the interwebs then it must be true and will happen.

I believe that the Hines project and possible Wells Fargo will be the only sizable office developments in the next several years. Without a doubt Minneapolis is on the cusp of a boom, and would not be surprised if office follows all of the residential development. The rule of thumb I've always heard is if vacancy is less than 15%, then a new development is feasible (for office). If Wells Fargo moves 1M SqFt to a new location, plus the hines, Class A office vacancy rate would surely be 20% or more... not the time to build a super-tall. Developers have smartened up from the spec building of yesteryear

EDIT: Class A vacancy rate in the CBD is listed at 11.5%, whereas I was originally looking at the 17% of the metro area

[mattaudio]

twa, I don't think WF will be vacating 1M SF downtown to move to the new proposal. Likely it would be from suburban campuses they lease. I could imagine some movement from the Northstar block or maybe the building on 3rd and Marquette, but I don't think this supposed back office dev would compete with their Class A core front office space needs closer to Nicollet.

[TWA]

twa, I don't think WF will be vacating 1M SF downtown to move to the new proposal. Likely it would be from suburban campuses they lease. I could imagine some movement from the Northstar block or maybe the building on 3rd and Marquette, but I don't think this supposed back office dev would compete with their Class A core front office space needs closer to Nicollet.

That is very possible. The original business journal article about the WF/Ryan/Star Trib lots from Dec 14 said that "In 2011, Wells Fargo hired the Minneapolis office of Jones Lang LaSalle to study options for relocating all or some of its employees now housed in the 1 million square feet it leases at the Northstar Center and Baker Center." So I was going off of that.

However, I would like to point out the Class A office market downtown appears to be much stronger then I originally thought- Colliers estimates a vacancy rate of approx 11.5% in the CBD for Class A space. If these new projects don't push vacancy rate much higher in the CBD, then the market certainly could handle a new large scale development.

[min-chi-cbus]

I knew I shouldn't have posted any of that. Carry on.

I'm not making fun of you, I'm trying to play down the speculation.....you wouldn't want an army of urbanmsp'ers to come after you, right?

[min-chi-cbus]

retired banker; this is exactly what I was telling you about. It's astounding these people even post here, IMO.

I think it's clear that I'm very funny. One time, I saw a standup comedian. In the next few years, I'll probably also become a standup comedian, and I'll have my own TV show shortly after that. It will be on FOX. One time I watched a show on FOX, so that lines up with my plan well.

If it is posted on the interwebs then it must be true and will happen.

I believe that the Hines project and possible Wells Fargo will be the only sizable office developments in the next several years. Without a doubt Minneapolis is on the cusp of a boom, and would not be surprised if office follows all of the residential development. The rule of thumb I've always heard is if vacancy is less than 15%, then a new development is feasible (for office). If Wells Fargo moves 1M SqFt to a new location, plus the hines, Class A office vacancy rate would surely be 20% or more... not the time to build a super-tall. Developers have smartened up from the spec building of yesteryear

Those percentages you quoted are usually applied for sub-markets moreso than the overall market. Besides, no two companies alone could easily make a 5% dent in the overall marketplace for office space in the Twin Cities (unless they were US Bank and Wells Fargo relocating out of the city or something).

[go4guy]

Nasa, any idea as to where these developments would go? If you have heard anything, or where you think they would/should go?

[John]

I think that the United States Capitol will be moved to Minneapolis in the next couple years. This is a good prediction and it makes a lot of sense to me. The time is right for us to move our federal seat of government and build a new Capitol building here, because I thought it and typed it in this box.

retired banker; this is exactly what I was telling you about. It's astounding these people even post here, IMO.

I guess I don't see how 3-4 towers built in Minneapolis in the next 5 years or so is somehow an outlandish prediction. There are many businesses looking for new space downtown (and probably some we are unaware of). Also, the chatter I hear for the convention center hotel is a tower of approximately 700 feet or so. Minneapolis already has three 700+foot towers and five or so 40-50 story buildings. We certainly are of a size that can support large scale development ( I have seen this happen over and over again in my 34 years I've lived here). This is a major US regional center with over 3 million people in a very vibrant economy. We have thousands of new housing units going up. We have a growing list of some of the best educational, cultural, sports, and entertainment facilities in the nation in or near our very compact downtown core. The LRT is expanding. There are companies looking for office space. The momentum is there.

[Avian]

I've also heard some talk behind the scenes. I think nasa is correct. There may be 3 or 4 new towers soon.

[min-chi-cbus]

Crazy! I find it so hard to believe myself but I don't doubt your sources or speculation if you have an inside track, I just have a hard time believing the market will cooperate long enough for anything to come to fruition!

I am especially having trouble grasping the "super tall" tower that's being thrown around, especially since it would have to be pretty much built by God him/her self before the residents of the city would accept any design proposal. I can see NIMBYs having an absolute field day with a project like that! Besides, I can't think of who could fill even 50% of a supertall tower (almost any bank is going to have that as a condition before lending). Wells Fargo COULD have, but clearly that's not happening if they're opting for the "corporate campus" route. The National Bone Marrow Donor Association is (only) looking for 300K-400K SF of space, and any super tall would easily be 1.5 million SF at the smallest, so that's about 25% of the space, and probably not enough to be an anchor tenant for something so big. The two lawfirms looking for space could EASILY be in the market for super premium class A space (and the rents they command) but again, I don't think they could be large enough anchors on their own (maybe together).

I'd love to know more details but I realize there's insider company restrictions and such that make talking about such things illegal, so we can all just suffice with the "gut feeling" of a few lofty msp'ers for now -- it sure makes daydreaming more interesting!

P.S. are these 3 or 4 NEW towers (over and above what we have already been discussing here on urbanmsp.com)? Because we already have a decent foothold on the NBMDA proposal, and we can surmise what the Wells and convention center hotel could be fairly well, given the info we have on those.

[nasa35]

Crazy! I find it so hard to believe myself but I don't doubt your sources or speculation if you have an inside track, I just have a hard time believing the market will cooperate long enough for anything to come to fruition!

I am especially having trouble grasping the "super tall" tower that's being thrown around, especially since it would have to be pretty much built by God him/her self before the residents of the city would accept any design proposal. I can see NIMBYs having an absolute field day with a project like that! Besides, I can't think of who could fill even 50% of a supertall tower (almost any bank is going to have that as a condition before lending). Wells Fargo COULD have, but clearly that's not happening if they're opting for the "corporate campus" route. The National Bone Marrow Donor Association is (only) looking for 300K-400K SF of space, and any super tall would easily be 1.5 million SF at the smallest, so that's about 25% of the space, and probably not enough to be an anchor tenant for something so big. The two lawfirms looking for space could EASILY be in the market for super premium class A space (and the rents they command) but again, I don't think they could be large enough anchors on their own (maybe together).

I'd love to know more details but I realize there's insider company restrictions and such that make talking about such things illegal, so we can all just suffice with the "gut feeling" of a few lofty msp'ers for now -- it sure makes daydreaming more interesting!

P.S. are these 3 or 4 NEW towers (over and above what we have already been discussing here on urbanmsp.com)? Because we already have a decent foothold on the NBMDA proposal, and we can surmise what the Wells and convention center hotel could be fairly well, given the info we have on those.

I'll say one thing; who told you it was going to be a "campus" Did someone from Ryan or Wells Fargo? That's speculation. Sports are huge in this country, being close to a billion doallar stadium will give Wells Fargo profile without the 35 million a year naming fees. I know the Ritz site is finally being looked at; same with the TCF site Ryan bought three years ago.

[min-chi-cbus]

Crazy! I find it so hard to believe myself but I don't doubt your sources or speculation if you have an inside track, I just have a hard time believing the market will cooperate long enough for anything to come to fruition!

I am especially having trouble grasping the "super tall" tower that's being thrown around, especially since it would have to be pretty much built by God him/her self before the residents of the city would accept any design proposal. I can see NIMBYs having an absolute field day with a project like that! Besides, I can't think of who could fill even 50% of a supertall tower (almost any bank is going to have that as a condition before lending). Wells Fargo COULD have, but clearly that's not happening if they're opting for the "corporate campus" route. The National Bone Marrow Donor Association is (only) looking for 300K-400K SF of space, and any super tall would easily be 1.5 million SF at the smallest, so that's about 25% of the space, and probably not enough to be an anchor tenant for something so big. The two lawfirms looking for space could EASILY be in the market for super premium class A space (and the rents they command) but again, I don't think they could be large enough anchors on their own (maybe together).

I'd love to know more details but I realize there's insider company restrictions and such that make talking about such things illegal, so we can all just suffice with the "gut feeling" of a few lofty msp'ers for now -- it sure makes daydreaming more interesting!

P.S. are these 3 or 4 NEW towers (over and above what we have already been discussing here on urbanmsp.com)? Because we already have a decent foothold on the NBMDA proposal, and we can surmise what the Wells and convention center hotel could be fairly well, given the info we have on those.

I'll say one thing; who told you it was going to be a "campus" Did someone from Ryan or Wells Fargo? That's speculation. Sports are huge in this country, being close to a billion doallar stadium will give Wells Fargo profile without the 35 million a year naming fees. I know the Ritz site is finally being looked at; same with the TCF site Ryan bought three years ago.

Wells Fargo Office Campus:
http://www.startribune.com/business/183 ... ml?refer=y

"Rick Collins, Ryan's vice president of development, said "multiple development scenarios" are being mulled for the land but declined to divulge further details.

One scenario apparently involves building a campus for Wells Fargo, a park, and perhaps residential housing, said a source familiar with the plans who requested anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the negotiations."

But since it said "one" of several I guess it's far from set in stone, but then why does Wells need so much space and so far from the core if it wants to build straight up? My guess is that perhaps the TCF Space, the Ritz Block AND the StarTribune blocks are all in play for Wells Fargo's development and Wells is just vying between the sites to determine which makes the most sense and which is most feasible (but it's just a guess). Furthermore, I have difficulty understanding why Wells would build something as much or more iconic than its existing HQ. I guess time will tell...

[Nathan]

Furthermore, I have difficulty understanding why Wells would build something as much or more iconic than its existing HQ. I guess time will tell...

It kills me to say this, so don't jump at me anyone, but why did anyone ever build something bigger and more iconic than the Foshay Tower, or the empire state building? There is always as next bigger or more iconic. The current Wells Fargo Tower will never stop being beautiful (like the Chrysler building, say) even if Wells Fargo decided it wanted to be in the new biggest icon... Wells Fargo is amazingly beautiful but why not have a city with 4 beautiful iconic towers? 5.. 6... As long as they are done well.

[robotlollipop]

^ Change is good. We would have buildings on the moon by now if people weren't so afraid of it.

[Tyler]

If this is a thread for downtown development rumors and speculation it should go back in that sub forum. Doesn't really make sense as an "anything goes" topic, IMO. Unless you're just trying to kill this type of discussion...

[fehler]

But how can all this optimism be true? Won't Obama wreck the economy with his taxes on the job creators and the dead? The fiscal cliff, sequester, TARP and stimulus will end us all? Won't an all-DFL St. Paul start a massive capital migration to Sioux Falls?

[go4guy]

If this is a thread for downtown development rumors and speculation it should go back in that sub forum. Doesn't really make sense as an "anything goes" topic, IMO. Unless you're just trying to kill this type of discussion...

Agreed. It seems as if someone doesn't believe Nasa's speculation, so they want to hide it here. Obviously Nasa has some inside info, and knows more about what is actually going on then most others here. Let him share that with the forum without bashing him for it and hiding his posts here.

[beykite]

Agreed. It seems as if someone doesn't believe Nasa's speculation, so they want to hide it here. Obviously Nasa has some inside info, and knows more about what is actually going on then most others here. Let him share that with the forum without bashing him for it and hiding his posts here.

Its not like this is hidden... The "Anything Goes" section isn't private or exclusive. Its just as easily accessible as any of the other forums. Nick stated the reasoning behind moving it here in the second post. It's not like its some grand conspiracy to silence Nasa. Nasa has been making predictions since the beginning of the Minnescraper days, some of them turned out to be true, and a lot of them turned out not to be true (in his defense the economy went to complete shit before most of the projects would have been started anyways) That being said there is no reason to want to hide any of Nasa's posts. Its not like he's just the crazy guy on the corner yelling "repent before the supertalls come" Everyone needs to lighten up and look at the title of the thread- its called rumors for a reason.

So I broke this thread off. I would agree with a previous poster that the "Fantasy" topic in the downtown section seems mostly like...fantasy. Which is fine, but a lot different than rumors. I put it in the Anything Goes section because I didn't figure it needed to be exclusive to Downtown.