Minnesota Governor Election 2022

[uptownbro]

Very early poll but Walz leads all possible opponents.
He is polling at 47-48% and holding a 11-17 point lead depending on who he runs against. Given the national environment this is very good news for him. Per reuters Biden "midwest" approval rating matches his national approval rating. Im not sure on Biden's approval rating in MN but this is a good sign that Walz is the favorite to win reelection today. Given the 7.7 billion dollar surplus the state has I think it puts him in a very strong position to fund his policy ideas.
https://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRe ... d3600ac2c6

[thespeedmccool]

Walz is a favorite, for sure, but I dug into the crosstabs and there are some strangely biased results.

For example, Walz is beating Gazelka in the Twin Cities by 20% (seems fair, maybe low) but in "Southern MN" by 29% (which is, to put it politely, nonsensical.) Walz could win southern MN (he's from there and it's not as Trumpy as western and northern MN,) but he's not winning it by 29%. Never. Not gonna happen.

I tweeted about the polls here, been tweeting about MN politics for two years now: https://twitter.com/Speed_McCool/status ... 03299?s=20

[uptownbro]

Interesting. I agree with your twitter take on this.
Walz isnt dislike in southern MN from my experience and he does have very strong ties to the communities there (Mankato, Owatonna, Rochester ect) . He also does the best he can to not be from the "metro". But hes not going to win the region by 29%. That would nearly match his results in 2008 and having a D next to your name in 2022 isnt going to be anything like 2008. If anything the results for the region might be more due to the lack of voter awareness of the GOP candidates so they are selecting walz just due to name recognition. SurveyUSA always has odd results imo but 538 thinks they are an "A" rated pollster.

[Didier]

This is beside the point, but if Walz wins doesn't he have to be considered a pretty legitimate option for presidential candidate?

I mean, he's an outstate Democrat, stable governor of a Midwestern state, national guard, only 57 years old, doesn't have a funny name like Hickenlooper. I'm convinced that Democrats' only hope post-Biden is someone with a resume like that.

[thespeedmccool]

He's not a bad contender, but he's got problems:

• White male (objectively, this is a problem for a Democratic presidential candidate in the primary)
• Not from a major media market, so very low name recognition
• Bad reputation among progressives (it's not that he's moderate, it's that he's been associated with Minnesota policing and Line 3)
• Not from a swing state (at least, probably not a swing state)

He'd be a great veep choice for Kamala Harris if Pete Buttigieg didn't exist. He's more likely to land as a cabinet official or as a Senator or something.

[uptownbro]

The issue is Kamala is pretty well disliked and would lose imo to just about any contender from the GOP not named Ted Cruz. Her approval rating as VP is 3-4 points below Biden's. Granted Biden hasn't done her any favors either.
I do think someone like Walz if he could win the primary and thats a big if due to many of the things stated above is the type of democrat who can and would win a national election. I think given all that he faced in the past 4 years has shown how to truly thread the needle on many issues.
Also for all of the talk about how wide and diverse the field was in 2020 it was Biden and Bernie as the last two standing in the primary.

[Blaisdell Greenway]

All of the senate districts in Minneapolis and St. Paul (and most, if not almost all of the metro) have gone with "contactless caucuses" this year. It involves filling out a form and sending it in, along with resolutions if you want. You can find out details for your area here: https://dfl.org/caucus/

If you live in Minneapolis we made an electronic version of the form and that's all you need to submit. We will then pass along to the appropriate recipients. www.minneapolisdfl.org/2022

[thespeedmccool]

Welp, all bets are off: https://www.hepolaminnesota.com/. With at least one marijuana candidate, and now self-absorbed Forward Party candidate Cory Hepola in the race for governor, Walz is no longer an outright favorite.

What an absolute disaster this could be. The best bet for the state's future is for Hepola to come to his senses and drop out, and for Biden's approval rating to get out of the toilet. Someone close to Hepola needs to drop him a line and tell them he's being a total idiot.

[mplsjaromir]

Have you ever seen Cory Hepola? Or heard him speak?

No way the illicit drug user community gets behind this guy.

He makes Wuthering Heights ass Jacob Frey look like Ray Lewis.

My prediction is that two hours into the campaign season he's bullied by a 19 year old campaign volunteer, drops out, starts a gofundme for enough money to get out of an "abusive situation"

[thespeedmccool]

Have you ever seen Cory Hepola? Or heard him speak?

No way the illicit drug user community gets behind this guy.

He makes Wuthering Heights ass Jacob Frey look like Ray Lewis.

My prediction is that two hours into the campaign season he's bullied by a 19 year old campaign volunteer, drops out, starts a gofundme for enough money to get out of an "abusive situation"

Don't get me wrong, I think he's a clown with no chance of garnering a much support. That said, the GOP doesn't need him to do much; in an evenish state and in what's shaping up to be a big year for Republicans, the 5% this guy gets could very well be the difference.

[mplsjaromir]

His rhetoric and platform (if you can all it that) would seem that he would maybe shave a 1 or 2 points from GOP leaning suburbanites.

His candidacy probably helps the DFL.

[MNdible]

I could see that being true, especially if the GOP ends up nominating one of their nuttier candidates.

[xandrex]

Dayton won in a not-so-great year for Democrats nationally with a third-party candidate on the ticket, so who knows? But the DFL has become even more metro-centric since then and relies on an awful lot of moderate suburban folks. Hepola is running as pro-choice, reforming the tax system (whatever that means), and police reform without defund. He says he's a Walz and Biden voter. https://twitter.com/Stowydad/status/1499056189254025225

I dunno...if you're still voting for Republicans these days, are you really going to be swayed by the pro-abortion, Walz/Biden candidate?

[MNdible]

I believe that there are quite a few suburban voters who would prefer to vote for fiscally conservative, socially liberal, and fairly moderate Republicans. I suspect that if you broke out the numbers, you'd find quite a few districts where (to the extent they still exist), moderate Republicans greatly outperform the national ticket over the last couple of presidential and statewide elections.

[uptownbro]

I cant see what his core voter block would be that Walz isnt already representing. Walz is the type of DFL candidate that center right suburban/urban voters like. The last poll in Dec 2021 had him with a 60% approval rating in the suburbs that Biden had similar approval ratings at the time

[Nick]

His glasses are pretty bad :-/

[thespeedmccool]

Cory Hepola is 100% going to take more votes from Walz than the GOP. I mean, just look at him, he's the definition of yuppie-moderate, exactly the kind of "enlightened centrist" who won't vote Republican, but aren't satisfied with Democrats because "both colors bad." There's approximately 0% chance that people who think that abortion is satanic and that the police are god-anointed heroes (average Jensen voters, that is) are gonna jump ship for Hepola.

[Didier]

"Fiscally conservative" is a term that has no meaning.

[Bakken2016]

Walz and Flanagan have won re-election!

[thespeedmccool]

Total DFL sweep. Dream come true.