Northstar Commuter Rail

[DanPatchToget]

The future of Northstar will be discussed on December 10th. https://www.hometownsource.com/elk_rive ... 6MX6vC2Rik

In October there were 300 daily rides, which is up from 100 daily throughout most of the pandemic, but I assume the uptick is because of the temporary $1 fare in September and October.

[John21]

Wow, didn’t know they did $1 for the Northstar too. I would’ve taken a ride for fun.

[thespeedmccool]

What was it prepandemic? I seem to remember something in the 900-1100 daily riders range, but I don't really know.

[uptownbro]

Per Wikipedia: 2,800 but idk if thats accurate

[DanPatchToget]

APTA is your friend. https://www.apta.com/research-technical ... -archives/

Here's a sampling of average daily ridership numbers for Northstar:
Q1 2010-1,900
Q2 2013-3,000
Q1 2017-2,400
Q4 2019-2,500
Q3 2020-100

I forget when it was, but I believe peak average daily ridership for Northstar in a single period was 3,100.

Back when it began in November 2009 the projected average daily ridership was 5,200 for the first year of operation.

[Trademark]

Could Broadway and Central host a Northstar station if the funding magically appeared?

[Silophant]

I doubt it would fit under the bridge itself, but I expect you could fit a station in by the old General Mills complex, now that it's shut down and presumably doesn't need its rail facilities anymore. Between 12th and 14th.

[DanPatchToget]

https://m.startribune.com/see-a-pothole ... 600161861/

This article mentions there will be no Northstar service to Twins games this year due to Anoka County withholding funding. Kind of disappointing, but I’d rather wait for money to be available to increase regular service instead of spending it on shuttles to/from baseball games.

[Bakken2016]

https://metrocouncil.org/Council-Meetin ... final.aspx

I really don't think we need to another report to tell us that it would be beneficial to extend the train to St.Cloud...

[MNdible]

I have yet to see one that's convinced me.

[DanPatchToget]

I have yet to see one that's convinced me.

There’s only been one in recent years, which is MnDOT’s study in 2020 that’s been collecting dust on a shelf ever since.

[thespeedmccool]

I think it's just as likely they propose mothballing it as they renew their calls for an extension.

Looking at the ridership percentage lost during the pandemic, Northstar by far did the worst in the whole country. Hard to see how Anoka and Sherburne counties will look at that and see staying power in the line.

The St. Cloud extension is obvious IMO, but these counties won't keep forking over millions to run a line they are politically opposed to and which moves dozens of people a day. Northstar's days are probably numbered, whether Metro Transit recommends killing it, Walz trades it away in negotiations with the GOP legislature next year, or a GOP trifecta kills it.

[Tcmetro]

Wouldn't the various parties be responsible for paying back the FTA if the line is closed? Probably worthwhile to compare that cost to the benefits of restructuring and extending the service.

[thespeedmccool]

Wouldn't the various parties be responsible for paying back the FTA if the line is closed? Probably worthwhile to compare that cost to the benefits of restructuring and extending the service.

Yes, and I'm not sure, but I'd bet paying back the FTA is less than extending it + continuing to pay the subsidy.

Regardless, it's more political than economic anyway. Northern exurbanites are vehemently opposed to Northstar for political reasons (public transit is socialism, brings crime, failed DFL boondoggle, screw the Met Council, etc.) and could probably care less about the financial costs of turning around the socialism train.

[DanPatchToget]

And what would happen to the abandoned stations? It would be a huge embarrassment both politically and for our region. Meanwhile peer cities like Albuquerque, Portland (OR), Seattle, and Nashville would continue operating theirs.

[Trademark]

And what would happen to the abandoned stations? It would be a huge embarrassment both politically and for our region. Meanwhile peer cities like Albuquerque, Portland (OR), Seattle, and Nashville would continue operating theirs.

Considering they're all tucked away in terrible locations I don't see how it would be embarrassing. Lots of people who ride metro transit have never taken it or even heard of it, and it would likely fade from memory.

[Tcmetro]

It's a bad signal to the feds that the region let a transit line fail and would likely jeopardize funding and increase scrutiny on future projects.

[DanPatchToget]

And what would happen to the abandoned stations? It would be a huge embarrassment both politically and for our region. Meanwhile peer cities like Albuquerque, Portland (OR), Seattle, and Nashville would continue operating theirs.

Considering they're all tucked away in terrible locations I don't see how it would be embarrassing. Lots of people who ride metro transit have never taken it or even heard of it, and it would likely fade from memory.

Just because not many people ride Northstar doesn't mean it isn't well known. Over the years there have been plenty of articles, both good and bad, about Northstar. Shutting down Northstar and leaving the multi-million dollar stations to rot would definitely get a lot of press and negative attention. Metro Transit and especially the Met Council don't need more negative attention when they've already got a few messes to clean up (driver shortage, increased crime on light rail, Southwest LRT cost overruns, etc.).

[thespeedmccool]

In terms of attention, it is infinitely more negative for the Met Council to keep running a train with a $100 dollar per-rider subsidy while one party screams about it from the mountaintops and the other doesn't care either way than to just mothball a line no one uses.

No one cares about Northstar. It's bleeding cash and heading for a final ride sometime soon.

I'm not saying they should, I'm just saying it's highly likely.

[DanPatchToget]

What is Northstar's actual per rider subsidy, and how does it compare to other commuter/regional rail systems as well as our suburban bus routes? I remember seeing 2016 data showing a few suburban express routes having a higher per rider subsidy than Northstar, and that didn't include the subsidies for local suburban routes. Obviously things have changed since then, but it would be interesting to see the current subsidies for suburban bus routes. Of course, Northstar is an easy target, while the suburban opt-outs can keep the subsidies under wraps or at least make it very difficult to find accurate data.

You know what else bleeds cash? Roads. We're forking over hundreds of millions every year just so the counties and MnDOT can claim they're "relieving congestion" despite the fact that we're not going to relieve congestion by having a transportation system relying almost entirely on cars and funding projects that will only encourage more driving and auto-centric development.

So far I haven't seen any indication that the DFL doesn't care if Northstar is mothballed, and if they actually care about transit then they would support fixing Northstar.

No one cares about Northstar.

Very opinionated statement, as well as being flat out wrong.