Northstar Commuter Rail

[DanPatchToget]

I haven't seen anything showing our light rail lines have reduced traffic on their respective routes, or Northstar pre-pandemic for that matter. It's a combination of population growth, continued development of both TOD and auto-centric land uses, and encouraging people to drive with bigger roads and more auto-centric development that makes reducing traffic congestion difficult and expensive. As much as politicians like to boast about a road widening or transit line reducing congestion, the reality is it probably won't if population keeps growing and there's more development around those transportation upgrades. In terms of transit improvements I think of it as giving people the option to avoid traffic congestion and/or not being part of the congestion problem (if you're on a bus stuck in traffic you're still in the congestion, but at least you're not contributing to the traffic congestion by driving).

Unfortunately auto-centric development isn't stopping anytime soon (I'm looking at you, Maple Grove), but that would be a huge step towards slowing traffic congestion. If we want to reduce traffic congestion however, that will require making driving more expensive and less convenient. In the case of Northstar that would involve halting all highway upgrades along the route and only maintaining the existing highway infrastructure, implementing tollways, and making Northstar an all-day regional rail service with local short-distance trains and express long-distance trains. That or on the opposite end of the spectrum we make every highway in the north metro at least six lanes in each direction. Either way it would be very expensive and very different from what is currently there.

[Oreos&Milk]

It would be awesome if even for 6 months they bumped the frequency of this line to see if it worked better. Probably not possible but one can dream.

It would be possible if they bit the bullet and added a third main track between Minneapolis and at least Coon Creek Junction.

Northstar is definitely one of those cases where cheaper doesn't mean better. We got track infrastructure already built for commuter trains, but you're operating on the busiest freight rail corridor in Minnesota, so you'll get bogged down by freight traffic interference and little if any room to expand the schedule. I'm not sure if they ever planned for Northstar to go beyond the peak hour and peak direction only service, IIRC I read a document from years ago where they considered adding a late morning and late evening roundtrip, but nothing beyond that.

I think your right they didn’t plan for hourly service and that is such a mistake that somebody should be fired for it! They need a reality check either find a real solution to making capacity feasible like expansion to St. Cloud AND hourly service and figure out what that cost would be and THEN we can go from there if the funding can be found and if it’s enough to make capacity high enough..

I fear we all know the answer likely is already no.

At least we would know once and for all if it could work or not and see if we can pay for it after we know..

[DanPatchToget]

When they began the St. Cloud Extension Study in early 2020 I overheard the options they were going to look at for service. There were only three options given and the option with the most service would be extending all the existing Northstar trips to St. Cloud (5 peak-hour, peak direction roundtrips plus 1 reverse-commute roundtrip), and they said that option was unlikely to be feasible. Maybe with the change in commute patterns during the pandemic there could be more willingness to make Northstar an all-day regional rail service, but it seems like MnDOT prefers cheap and less useful service than spending more money to make Northstar a service that's convenient for more people than just suburban commuters.

[MNdible]

The earnest belief that somehow there will ever be enough demand to justify multiple non-rush hour trips on Northstar is an UrbanMSP classic -- that somehow sending a diesel burning locomotive running mostly empty from St. Cloud to Minneapolis is an improvement over a bus option, or even an improvement over people driving their own single occupant vehicles.

[DanPatchToget]

The earnest belief that somehow there will ever be enough demand to justify multiple non-rush hour trips on Northstar is an UrbanMSP classic -- that somehow sending a diesel burning locomotive running mostly empty from St. Cloud to Minneapolis is an improvement over a bus option, or even an improvement over people driving their own single occupant vehicles.

We're not suggesting light rail frequency or even hourly frequency. Just enough to give people flexibility and make it convenient for more than just the suburban park & riders who work in downtown in the morning and go back home in the evening.

I think we can make a comparison to the New Mexico RailRunner, which has off-peak service between Albuquerque and Santa Fe. Albuquerque has a higher population than Minneapolis, but Minneapolis has a higher population density, and same goes for Santa Fe comparing it to St. Cloud. Albuquerque to Santa Fe is pretty much the same distance as Minneapolis to St. Cloud. The RailRunner has eight roundtrips on weekdays between those cities. Most trips are during rush hour but there are at least a couple trips off-peak. Right now the average weekday ridership is around 500, which of course is extremely low but unfortunately the pandemic is still around. Just before the pandemic it was around 2,400, and its peak was in 2010 with around 3,800.

As for the diesel locomotives, it would be nice if Metro Transit looked at the potential for battery-electric multiple units or battery-electric locomotives. However I believe the current locomotives are undergoing a major rebuild, so unfortunately I doubt they want to look at new trains for awhile. Sooner or later I think we will have to evaluate whether we want to continue with dirty diesels for Northstar and any future rail lines, or start to consider battery-electric like what we're doing with buses.

[Oreos&Milk]

Serious question.. what about pairing it with a bus route? During off peak times having a bus instead of train that would service the stations with hourly service then riders would have dependable hourly service during the daytime and if those busses start to get crowded they could upgrade to half hour service of additional train service if at all possible

Seriously if I was living on that route that would be a realistic solution instead of wild dreams that are just to far from reality these days given the full picture.

Extend the line to St. Cloud and give up one train trip and use those Northstar connect busses to conduct the remaining hourly service ( every other hour service at minimum)

I know it be kinda a hard pill to swallow but at least we be moving forward to getting better service maybe then demand can be developed with more development over the years or at least we have more frequently transit service

[Tiller]

It would be great if we could just get some DMUs with lower capacity but also lower operating costs and run them more frequently.

Some legislator should just stick some MNDOT money for a third track in a bonding bill to get it over with.

[DanPatchToget]

If they were to consider switching to DMUs (or some type of multiple-unit rolling stock), the question is would BNSF accept that? I believe Union Pacific doesn't want MUs on their tracks, and we already know how much power the railroads have to get what they want (or don't want).

[NickP]

Serious question.. what about pairing it with a bus route? During off peak times having a bus instead of train that would service the stations with hourly service then riders would have dependable hourly service during the daytime and if those busses start to get crowded they could upgrade to half hour service of additional train service if at all possible

Seriously if I was living on that route that would be a realistic solution instead of wild dreams that are just to far from reality these days given the full picture.

Extend the line to St. Cloud and give up one train trip and use those Northstar connect busses to conduct the remaining hourly service ( every other hour service at minimum)

I know it be kinda a hard pill to swallow but at least we be moving forward to getting better service maybe then demand can be developed with more development over the years or at least we have more frequently transit service

I like this idea!

[MNdible]

I haven't studied the line well enough to know for sure, but I'd imagine that a bus running this route (and presumably needing to service the same physical stations) will have a lot of inefficiencies baked in, jumping on and off highway 10, etc.

[DanPatchToget]

Since it's a bus you would already have people not wanting to use it. Not only is it a bus, it's a bus that can only go as fast as the traffic is going while a train can zoom past it. All of the stations aren't on the highway, so as MNdible said the buses would have to go on and off the highway and that adds a significant amount of travel time. With all of those downsides I think each bus would only be carrying a single digit number of people.

[Tiller]

According to Google maps, it would take 1 hour and 18 minutes to drive from Big lake to downtown, starting and stopping at all of the currenr Northstar stations. I would imagine that's as fast as a bus could make the trip. That doesn't include any traffic and it doesn't include any dwell time at each station. What's the current end-to-end travel time for Northstar?

[Silophant]

The current schedule shows 52 minutes from Big Lake to Target Field, or vice versa.

[Bakken2016]

https://m.startribune.com/northstar-rai ... 600111876/

Apparently Anoka County no longer wants to pay their portion and is arguing with the Met Council.

The Met Council needs to adjust the schedule to hourly in both directions and focus on getting it to St. Cloud.


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[thespeedmccool]

Honestly, it's probably time to replace service with a bus and return to rail when more downtown jobs are back in office. If the Met Council appears too uncompromising on this, Republicans will kill Northstar entirely when they take the legislature next year. I'm surprised Northstar/Anoka County cuts aren't already going to be major parts of the December route changes.

There's a serious risk of a Republican trifecta in MN next year, and in that case, the Met Council as a whole would be on the chopping block. Better set good precedents and build good relationships now before it's too late.

[Bakken2016]

Minnesota won’t go Republican trifecta, the state has exceedingly voted for Democrats state wide for over the last decade, and the metro continues to get more Blue.


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[DanPatchToget]

Honestly, it's probably time to replace service with a bus and return to rail when more downtown jobs are back in office. If the Met Council appears too uncompromising on this, Republicans will kill Northstar entirely when they take the legislature next year. I'm surprised Northstar/Anoka County cuts aren't already going to be major parts of the December route changes.

There's a serious risk of a Republican trifecta in MN next year, and in that case, the Met Council as a whole would be on the chopping block. Better set good precedents and build good relationships now before it's too late.

If we shut down Northstar we would have to pay the U.S. DOT $85 million. That's probably the main reason why Northstar is still operating. Another likely reason is they'd rather have multi-million dollar stations and trains being under-utilized than not being used at all.

[thespeedmccool]

Minnesota won’t go Republican trifecta, the state has exceedingly voted for Democrats state wide for over the last decade, and the metro continues to get more Blue.


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We'll see what happens in Virginia on Tuesday. If Virginia goes red, it may well be game over for Walz.

As for the separate point on the stations and sunk costs, I fully agree with that, but 1. I wouldn't suggest abandoning the corridor permanently and 2. Even that line of reasoning has to have its limits.

If, say, a station served 10 people a day and maintain it cost 1,000s a year, it's ridiculous to keep operating it. Northstar is approaching that point; 26,000 riders in eight months is abysmal. The council should set a number at which they'll return Northstar to rail, but for the time being, make it a bus.

[uptownbro]

Walz is far more likeable and a better politician then Terry McAuliffe who seems to get in his own way.
The northstar is an odd transit option at an odd time. I think even improving it vs expanding it would do wonders but until the office work force downtown returns to anything close to what it was before im not sure how viable it is

[COLSLAW5]

Honestly, it's probably time to replace service with a bus and return to rail when more downtown jobs are back in office. If the Met Council appears too uncompromising on this, Republicans will kill Northstar entirely when they take the legislature next year. I'm surprised Northstar/Anoka County cuts aren't already going to be major parts of the December route changes.

There's a serious risk of a Republican trifecta in MN next year, and in that case, the Met Council as a whole would be on the chopping block. Better set good precedents and build good relationships now before it's too late.

If we shut down Northstar we would have to pay the U.S. DOT $85 million. That's probably the main reason why Northstar is still operating. Another likely reason is they'd rather have multi-million dollar stations and trains being under-utilized than not being used at all.

There is also issues with the BNSF contract if we stop operations since the trains use BNSF operators to drive the trains.