Traffic projection accuracy
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- IDS Center
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Traffic projection accuracy
It seems transportation departments and ministries around the planet are all failing to predict future traffic demands accurately for the past decade. Not just the U.S. ... http://www.humantransit.org/2014/07/how ... ction.html
But also New Zealand ... http://transportblog.co.nz/2014/12/01/p ... re-demand/
Are there any states or countries that have accurately predicted the current motorized traffic trends they are having for the past decade?
But also New Zealand ... http://transportblog.co.nz/2014/12/01/p ... re-demand/
Are there any states or countries that have accurately predicted the current motorized traffic trends they are having for the past decade?
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- Capella Tower
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
Is there a general trend that you're seeing (i.e. underestimates/overestimates projected traffic)? I see that the article talks about overestimating, but is that also what you're noticing?
- FISHMANPET
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
This is what he's talking about:
Planners have been predicting increased traffic for a while and it's hot happening, but their models aren't changing.
Second only to this, my favorite "missed projections" graph, though totally unrelated to transportation:
Planners have been predicting increased traffic for a while and it's hot happening, but their models aren't changing.
Second only to this, my favorite "missed projections" graph, though totally unrelated to transportation:
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- IDS Center
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
Off topic, but in grad school I sat in on an architecture reading group and we read all of the EPIC papers out of Illinois (EPIC was funded by Intel and Itanium is pretty much a carbon-copy). The professors and senior students all concluded that if EPIC were to be implemented it would be a huge failure.Second only to this, my favorite "missed projections" graph, though totally unrelated to transportation:
Ever since that experience I haven't had much faith that hundreds of computer engineers with fancy letters after their names really know anything more than some grad student sitting in a cube.
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
Looking at the New Zealand traffic forecast graph, it does look like they are adjusting things, the slope of growth is less steep the more recent we get.
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- IDS Center
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
From David Levinson's blog, "...the severity of future congestion problems is systematically overestimated."
http://transportationist.org/2014/12/03 ... ernatives/
http://transportationist.org/2014/12/03 ... ernatives/
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- IDS Center
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
Two pertinent articles from the Atlantic:
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/12/ ... ve/383431/
http://www.citylab.com/cityfixer/2014/1 ... ed/383759/
http://www.citylab.com/commute/2014/12/ ... ve/383431/
http://www.citylab.com/cityfixer/2014/1 ... ed/383759/
Q. What, what? A. In da butt.
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- IDS Center
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
Thread NECROMANCY!
Found a posting from Australia about the rampant failure to model traffic forecasts there too.
https://theconversation.com/defying-the ... ness-53099
Found a posting from Australia about the rampant failure to model traffic forecasts there too.
https://theconversation.com/defying-the ... ness-53099
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- IDS Center
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Traffic projection accuracy
Will this be a year the traffic congestion worsening happens according to the expert forecasts? Or will it be no big deal as usual.
http://www.startribune.com/congestion-i ... 389047591/
MNDOT is projecting worsening congestion.
http://www.startribune.com/congestion-i ... 389047591/
MNDOT is projecting worsening congestion.
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- Capella Tower
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
With all of the construction going on for hwy's 100 this year, 169 next year, I-35W in the north metro, etc. I don't see an end in sight anytime soon. Esp. for the SW metro. Isn't there a plan to formally rehab the northern half of I-35W in S. Mpls from 42nd street to downtown? That will also be a major major bottleneck.
On the other hand, it's amazing to me that a metro that's regarded as the 16th largest (15th, if you consider Riverside as part of greater LA) is only the 23rd worst congested metro in the nation. Off the top of my head I can think of: Austin, Denver, maybe Portland that are likely worse. What are the other 4-5?
On the other hand, it's amazing to me that a metro that's regarded as the 16th largest (15th, if you consider Riverside as part of greater LA) is only the 23rd worst congested metro in the nation. Off the top of my head I can think of: Austin, Denver, maybe Portland that are likely worse. What are the other 4-5?
Re: Traffic projection accuracy
VMT increasing faster than any time in recent history: https://twitter.com/yfreemark/status/768102262245851138
(I know this isn't a projection, but this was the closest topic it would fit in)
(I know this isn't a projection, but this was the closest topic it would fit in)
Re: Traffic projection accuracy
But Millennials don't want to drive.
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- Union Depot
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
I don't want to pay taxes. That doesn't mean I have a realistic choice on the matter.But Millennials don't want to drive.
- mister.shoes
- Wells Fargo Center
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
Nope, but they loooooooove Uber.But Millennials don't want to drive.
The problem with being an introvert online is that no one knows you're just hanging out and listening.
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
WisDOT has been in court over its fantasy numbers in filling traffic forecasts.
http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/ ... e7d86.html
http://host.madison.com/wsj/news/local/ ... e7d86.html
Out of forecasts for 30 highway projects, the nonpartisan Legislative Audit Bureau found the department failed to document how it produced 28 of them.
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- IDS Center
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Re: Traffic projection accuracy
A bit of thread necromancy. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/v7gx ... tion-v27n3
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